Ken Jones: Forget the team talks and tactics - rely on good luck

Even before France were seen to be a busted flush and England wrecked Argentina's confidence, the impression here was that the World Cup had never been more likely to fall into the hands of a half-decent team playing to its maximum potential.

Because England seemed to have a chance of figuring in that category, and Sven Goran Eriksson could indeed be a lucky general, I took the 14-1 on offer from a confident layer shortly before the tournament got under way.

England's inability to keep the ball in their opening game against Sweden – Ron Atkinson was the only pundit who pronounced the truth: "Poor in the first-half, awful in the second" – suggested a dumb investment and yet something told me to back Eriksson's team at 9-4 against Argentina.

For goodness sake, I'm not English. There is no cross of St George fluttering from my car. Patriotism does not come into it. I did not experience palpitations when Argentina laid siege to England's goal. I did not take any pleasure in Argentina's departure, nor was I glad to see the back of France who, like Brazil in 1966, were neither one thing nor another and seriously short on good fortune.

Frankly, I do not care who wins the World Cup as long as victory is achieved with distinction. The way things are shaping up with three, Argentina, France and Uruguay, of the only seven winners already out, and another, Italy, under threat, there is talk of a World Cup like no other, one in which any of the last 16 can succeed because things have levelled off. Levelled up or levelled down?

Before a ball was kicked in Japan and South Korea a popular assumption was that there are no longer any easy international matches. Then Germany, who were not considered serious contenders, put eight goals past Saudi Arabia. However, when Nigeria took their only point from a goalless draw with England yesterday, Rio Ferdinand took up the old theme. "We knew it wouldn't be easy," Ferdinand said, "because there are no longer any easy international games." Coaches preach this point of view to concentrate the thoughts of their players. "You must fight for the right to prove your superiority," is another way of putting it.

You can go and and on like this, and people do. France, it has been said, were too full of themselves, going on to pay for assuming that they only had to show up in their opening match against Senegal. The France coach, Roger Lemerre, is under fire for not rebuilding his team. But luck deserted the French when they needed it to compensate for the loss of Robert Pires and Zinedine Zidane. They hit the woodwork five times in three matches. Would things have turned out differently against Senegal if Thierry Henry's marvellous shot had found the net instead of rebounding from the crossbar?

World Cups, football generally, can hinge on such things. There have been countless crucial incidents in World Cup history that owed nothing to formations and tactics only to strokes of outrageous fortune.

England have reached the last 16 without scoring from open play, their two goals coming from a corner kick and a penalty. The change in personnel forced on Eriksson when Owen Hargreaves was injured after 19 minutes against Argentina had the effect of improving England's balance, Paul Scholes moving infield to accommodate Trevor Sinclair, who was immediately effective. Criticised for selecting only seven midfielders, and with two, Joe Cole and Kieron Dyer not fully fit, Eriksson's luck had held. Sinclair was the only midfielder he could call on.

Following the dismal performance against Sweden, the England players rallied around Eriksson, insisting that the direct method they employed was contrary to his instructions. This sounded odd and did not sit easily with an unpublicised report that they were unhappy with the preferred system of play.

If so, it is an echo of what happened in the 1986 World Cup finals when England looked to be on their way out after taking just one point from the first two group games, having lost Bryan Robson. Coming under pressure from within the squad, the England manager, Bobby Robson, went to a shape with which his defenders were more comfortable. England progressed from their group to reach the quarter-finals against Argentina.

Only yesterday, I was advised not to underestimate England's chances in what looks like the most open of all World Cups. "The Swede seems to be a lucky guy, it might not be wise to bet against him," somebody said.

"Don't worry," I replied. "Took seven hundred pounds to fifty."