Scotland retain positive outlook despite injustice

After all the hot air about the importance of "passion", much of it generated by a German who has seldom betrayed such emotions during his managerial career, cool heads and dispassionate analysis are required in the post mortem on the defeat by Lithuania which cost Scotland the leadership of Group Five in the Euro 2004 qualifying campaign.

Despite his disappointment at losing to a side so limited in ambition and ability, especially to an abject penalty decision by the Austrian referee, Fritz Stuchlik, Berti Vogts must keep certain facts in perspective as he prepares for a potentially momentous reunion with Germany on 7 June. Lithuania have, for example, played a game more than Scotland and have still to visit Hampden Park.

Should Scotland avenge Tomas Razanauskas' 75th-minute winner – they have a 100 per cent home record in six visits by the three Baltic states – as well as taking three points at home to the Faroe Islands, a play-off place would be virtually assured. Vogts, remember, wrote off the possibility of reaching Portugal during last year's run of defeats. Self-evidently, it remains within his grasp.

Nor should indignation about Lithuania's goal, which came after Darius Maciulevicius fell like a wounded gazelle following a brush of butterfly-like intensity with Jackie McNamara, blind anyone to the truth. Scotland, while superior to hosts who often resorted to brute force and gamesmanship, created little in the final third of the pitch. Moreover, they settled too readily for the draw which Vogts, with arguably flawed psychology, had repeatedly said would suffice.

At 0-0 late in a game, there is always a chance the better team will be caught out, and so it transpired after Herr Stuchlik, in McNamara's words, claimed he "heard some contact" with Maciulevicius. Those leading the chorus of outrage should consider that Scotland benefited from a similar aberration four days earlier, when Lee Wilkie pushed Eidur Gudjohnsen shortly after Iceland equalised. No spot-kick was awarded and Wilkie went on to head the winning goal.

Atli Edvaldsson, the Iceland manager, joined Germany's Rudi Völler in watching Scotland in Lithuania, and the irony of the outcome was not lost on him. "It could have been much worse for Scotland. If the penalty had been awarded to us in Glasgow, they would have had no points from these two matches."

Edvaldsson, whose brother Johannes played for Celtic and who is himself steeped in German football after playing in the Bundesliga, acknowledged that the struggle for first and second place would probably be resolved by Scotland's tussles with Germany – and how the rival coaches handle the pressure. "I'm sure the two games will turn on the two personalities. It'll be a real duel between them."

The sub-plots are piling up according to Edvaldsson. "Berti was not very happy that the German federation ended his time as manager of the national team. And Rudi was on the board at Bayer Leverkusen when it was decided that Vogts should no longer be manager there."

Ultimately though, the points will be decided by the actions of players (not forgetting match officials). Vogts may be advised to monitor the condition of Don Hutchison, who has lost the spark he showed early in his Scotland career and is increasingly conspicuous for berating referees.

There is also a case, certainly in games as winnable as Wednesday's, for eschewing caution and trusting in the attacking attributes of Colin Cameron and Paul Devlin. Both should be given a more extended opportunity when Austria play the part of Germany in a dress-rehearsal friendly at Hampden on 30 April.