Buffon fears 'fix' that could sink Italy

Gianluigi Buffon calls it "il biscotto" – the fix. It is what every Italian and French footballer fears tonight as they go into a game that will decide their fate at Euro 2008. Or at least they hope it will. If Romania beat the Netherlands, the result in Zurich will matter not a bit and the World Cup finalists from 2006 will both be out at the group stage.

Of course talk of a fix is a bit rich coming from the Italians, given the match-fixing corruption uncovered in their game two years ago in the calciopoli scandal that centred upon Luciano Moggi, then the general manager of Juventus. And this situation is different. Marco van Basten, the Netherlands coach, has earned the right to manipulate Group C and there is an obvious advantage for the Dutch in having Romania through at the expense of France and Italy.

"I couldn't stand another fixed match like that 2-2 draw between Denmark and Sweden four years ago [at Euro 2004]," Buffon said. That result eliminated the Italians but the notion that it was a fix would be disputed by the two teams involved. Tonight, a victory for Romania would mean the Netherlands would not risk facing France or Italy in the semi-finals.

"I trust in the sportsmanship of the Dutch," Buffon said, "and I also hope Marco van Basten remembers he is a friend of Roberto Donadoni's and of Italy in general."

The Italians have been reminding Van Basten a lot about his time in Italy – six years at Milan – over the last few days; his former coach, Arrigo Sacchi, even penned an open letter to him in yesterday's Gazzetta Dello Sport, reminding "Marco" of his friendship with Donadoni, the Italy coach.

This kind of moral maze often presents itself at these tournaments. Surely the Netherlands have earned the right to rest players in this final game, having beaten Italy and France? Given the chance to eliminate two major rivals by losing a game, would not the Italians do so themselves?

That the Netherlands owe Italy and France nothing is a personal opinion. They established their position by putting a total of seven goals past them and playing the best football of the tournament last week. The Italians, for whom a draw would be enough should Romania lose by a certain margin, have said that the speculation is playing on their minds.

"The biscotto is a nuisance, something that is in your head," the midfielder Daniele De Rossi said. "Because even during the game you are always thinking a little bit about the other result. It is important for us to think only about our game. The Netherlands can win 10-0, but if we do not win, it is no good."

For France, the problems are even more profound. While Donadoni has dropped Marco Materazzi from his line-up, there is talk of bigger casualties in Raymond Domenech's line-up. Lilian Thuram, with 142 caps, is set to be replaced at centre-back by Eric Abidal, the left-back who was dropped for the game against the Netherlands.

Domenech is expected to try another formula around Thierry Henry up front. This time he is expected to discard Florent Malouda in favour of a 4-4-2 formation rather than 4-5-1 and recall Karim Benzema to the starting line-up. But there are hints of bigger problems, that the former Marseilles team-mates Franck Ribéry and Samir Nasri have fallen out and that there is a major rift in the squad between the old guard, such as Thuram and Henry, and the young generation coming through. Such problems sound more characteristic of the Dutch than the French.

Ribéry, who will be up against Luca Toni, a Bayern Munich team-mate – who, with a goal wrongly ruled out for offside against Romania, has not yet scored in the tournament – has arguably been France's best player so far. He said the 4-1 defeat to the Netherlands had hurt.

"It was very hard to take," he said. "We've talked a lot since and said to each other that we're still not finished. There weren't any problems, no one was angry. We all spoke a lot, we said many things but now we have to die on the pitch and give our all. We'll play to the maximum against Italy and hope it works out. We've turned the page after the Dutch game and are now thinking only about Italy. It's going to be tough."

Remarkably, Domenech appeared at one point yesterday to be saying that he was considering throwing in the towel and giving his young players some experience instead of trying to win the game – a draw will not be good enough. "There could be a strategy for the future by abandoning the idea of qualifying, and giving playing time to other players," he said. "But there is also a small chance of qualifying by trying our best, without experimenting."

The only man who really seemed to know his mind was the Romanian coach Victor Piturca, who was in no doubt that the Netherlands should throw the game. "I don't know what they think but maybe they think that the Netherlands don't want to play France and Italy [again]. They are quite logical. That is how the Dutch should also think. For their own good they should not play against France and Italy in the semi-finals."

France (probable, 4-4-2): Coupet (Lyons); Sagnol (Bayern Munich), Gallas (Arsenal), Abidal (Barcelona), Evra (Manchester United); Govou (Lyon), Makelele (Chelsea), Toulalan (Lyon), Ribéry (Bayern Munich); Henry (Barcelona), Benzema (Lyons).

Italy (probable, 4-3-3): Buffon (Juventus); Zambrotta (Milan), Chiellini (Juventus), Panucci (Roma), Grosso (Lyons); Pirlo (Milan), De Rossi (Roma), Camoranesi (Juventus); Perotta (Roma), Del Piero (Juventus), Toni (Bayern Munich).

Referee: L Michel (Slovakia).

Misses next match if booked: France: Sagnol, Makelele, Toulalan; Italy: Zambrotta, Toni, Gattuso, De Rossi, Pirlo.

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