'Big five' enter crucial spell but who will be top come new year?

Chelsea are stumbling, City have easier fixtures and Arsenal have hit form. The festive period could be decisive.

For one of the nominal new big five of English football it will have to be a winter of discontent. Not all of them can survive unscathed the six games in 25 days that will deliver us into the new year with a better idea of how the most intriguing title race in years will unfold.

For Chelsea and Arsenal, three of their next five games are against fellow top-four sides. For Manchester United it is two. Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur only have one game against one of the other top-four teams. For Chelsea in particular this is a crucial period in their season.

Can they reach 6 January still in the title race? Will Carlo Ancelotti still have a job by then? Chelsea's next three games are against Tottenham, United and Arsenal and if the Italian loses two of those his position will be fragile, given what we know about the speed with which Roman Abramovich dispensed with Ray Wilkins. Lose all three and it is hard to see how Ancelotti could survive.

The Chelsea manager has lost three and drawn two of his last six league games and if his team do not rally against Spurs on Sunday and then against United on 19 December, the game against Arsenal six days later becomes make-or-break. Chelsea have not lost to Arsenal in the league since November 2008 when the wheels started to come off the Luiz Felipe Scolari regime.

Of the four league games since then, Chelsea have won every one, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one. When Ancelotti's team beat Arsenal 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in October that result had come to be an expectation. But this is a different Chelsea team now who desperately need to start winning as they go into their most difficult run of games yet.

Frank Lampard is expected to be back in the Chelsea team on Sunday after an absence that stretches back to August. But how soon can he reasonably be expected to hit his stride? Chelsea need Lampard at his best right now. By the new year they could be adrift if their results continue on a downward curve.

So who stands to benefit? Certainly City who have a much more comfortable run of games starting with the Premier League's bottom club West Ham tomorrow. Win there and they could build a nice platform for themselves over Christmas towards what will be a critical test of their credentials at the Emirates on 5 January.

Of all the current top five, City are the only side to have played all four of the other teams, picking up five points along the way. United and Chelsea have played just twice against fellow top-five teams. So City should be the side with the most to gain from the Christmas run-in, especially with home games against Everton, Aston Villa and Blackpool who are all in the bottom eight.

But my hunch is that Arsenal will have the happiest Christmas of all. Yes, they have wobbled recently: not too clever against Fulham and a bit complacent against Partizan Belgrade on Wednesday but there is good news on the horizon. Robin van Persie has played his first 90 minutes of the season. Cesc Fabregas and Abou Diaby are close to full fitness, too.

If Arsenal can negotiate Monday's game at Old Trafford – a draw would be a good result, especially if, as expected, Fabregas does not play – then I can see them winning their next five. Beating Chelsea at the Emirates on 27 December would be a huge psychological step forward. Arsenal have not had Van Persie consistently on form since his ankle injury in November last year and now he finally looks ready.

After Arsenal, United and Spurs have reasonable Christmas fixtures. My money would be on United getting draws at least from their games against Arsenal and Chelsea and to be reasonably solid after that. The occasional rogue defeat for Spurs cannot be ruled out – remember Wigan and West Ham – but there is no doubt they are capable of beating Chelsea at home, as they did last season.

When the games come thick and fast over Christmas, momentum is everything. If Chelsea lose at Spurs then the gloom could be difficult to turn around as the intensity of the games increase. They will just hope to still be in the race come January.

Sam Wallace predicts how the top five might fare over christmas

Chelsea

12 Dec Tottenham (away)

Sam Wallace's prediction: Spurs to win 2-1

19 Dec Man United (home)

Draw 1-1

27 Dec Arsenal (A)

Arsenal to win 2-1

29 Dec Bolton Wanderers (H)

Chelsea to win 1-0

2 Jan Aston Villa (H)

Chelsea to win 2-0

5 Jan Wolverhampton (A)

Chelsea to win 1-0

Total 10 pts

Manchester United

13 Dec Arsenal (H)

Draw 1-1

19 Dec Chelsea (A)

Draw 1-1

26 Dec Sunderland (H)

United to win 2-0

28 Dec Birmingham City (A)

United to win 1-0

1 Jan West Bromwich (A)

Draw 2-2

4 Jan Stoke City (H) home

United to win 3-0

Total 12 pts

Arsenal

13 Dec Manchester United (A)

Draw 1-1

18 Dec H Stoke City (H)

Arsenal to win 2-1

27 Dec Chelsea (H)

Arsenal to win 2-1

29 Dec Wigan Athletic (A)

Arsenal to win 2-0

1 Jan Birmingham City (A)

Arsenal to win 2-1

5 Jan Manchester City (H)

Arsenal to win 3-2

Total 16 pts

Manchester City

11 Dec West Ham United (A)

City to win 1-0

20 Dec Everton (H)

City to win 1-0

26 Dec Newcastle United (A)

Draw 1-1

28 Dec Aston Villa (H)

City to win 3-1

1 Jan Blackpool (H)

City to win 4-0

5 Jan Arsenal (A)

Arsenal to win 3-2

Total 13 pts

Tottenham Hotspur

12 Dec Chelsea (H)

Spurs to win 2-1

19 Dec Blackpool (A)

Spurs to win 2-0

26 Dec Aston Villa (A)

Aston Villa to win 1-0

28 Dec Newcastle (H)

Spurs to win 1-0

1 Jan Fulham (H)

Spurs to win 2-0

5 Jan Everton (A)

Everton to win 2-1

Total 12 pts

Predicted table after 5 Jan

1 Arsenal 48

2 Manchester United 43

3 Manchester City 42

4 Chelsea 40

5 Tottenham 38