Comment: Could Ferguson be on a downward spiral?
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Sport, as Lance Armstrong would appreciate more than most, goes in cycles.
No-one stays at the top forever. Not Australia's cricketers, who looked unassailable for the best part of two decades but who start another Ashes series next week appearing distinctly vulnerable.
Not Roger Federer, who lost his world number one ranking last year, even if the bookies still have him favourite to win another Wimbledon crown on Sunday despite the challenge of Andy Murray.
Not even it seems Sir Alex Ferguson and Manchester United.
If you had to choose any sporting monolith which appeared to be set in stone then it would have been United, with its rich history, its global fan base and its legendary manager.
But this summer there are signs that, if the foundations are not exactly shaking, a crack or two are appearing.
One such fissure came this week with the news that Karim Benzema, a striker widely reported to be Ferguson's top transfer target, had chosen to leave Lyon and join Real Madrid to team up with Kaka and Cristiano Ronaldo instead.
It came the day Ronaldo's move to Real was formally concluded and as Bayern Munich's Franck Ribery was telling the world he wanted to leave, but only for Real.
So in the space of a few weeks United have sold their greatest asset in Ronaldo, failed to persuade Carlos Tevez to stay, missed out on their number one replacement, Benzema, and been snubbed by Europe's most wanted midfielder.
But they have signed Antonio Valencia, you might argue, for around £16m.
Which is true, but that is like saying you have sold a five bathroom mansion on Sandbanks and bought a three bed semi in Bournemouth.
Look at the figures.
Ronaldo scored 68 goals for United in the last two seasons. Benzema scored 54 for Lyon. Kaka weighed in with 35 for AC Milan and Ribery 33 for Bayern.
Valencia? In the three seasons he spent with Wigan, since first joining on loan in 2006, he scored seven goals. He is a pleasing little winger with good balance and a decent delivery but for £16m you might expect a shade more evidence of fire power.
Which is why Ferguson continues to scour the football world for the striker he needs to replace Ronaldo and augment the remaining two from the so-called 'Fab Four' - Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov. Ferguson's problems start there, but they do not end there.
Because while Ferguson has young guns such as Federico Macheda and Danny Welbeck knocking on his door for more opportunities he also has the impending retirements of Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, Edwin van der Sar and Gary Neville to contend with.
And he has to do so at a time when the Premier League might well be losing some of its financial lustre for the biggest stars.
Already Arsenal's Andrey Arshavin has complained about having to pay 40% tax on his earnings and that rate rises to 50% from next April.
The pound is weak, the Euro is strong and television channel Setanta has gone into administration because it could not lure enough subscribers to watch its football packages.
Meanwhile, Italian football is emerging from a decade of decay and Spain appears once more the place to be.
Cue the job Josep Guardiola is doing at Barcelona with stars such as Lionel Messi, Xavi, Thierry Henry and Andres Iniesta.
Just five weeks ago we watched and admired the Spaniards outclass United in Rome's Olympic stadium to wrench the Champions League trophy from the grasp of Ferguson.
It might have been a blip in football's balance of power and Ferguson, as critics know to their cost, should not be written off. But, as players go and others fail to arrive, it is beginning to have the feel of a new cycle.
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Comments
till then, let's not waste time contemplating the moves of the best football manager in football history.
Its only July 2nd, and you're talking about players failing to arrive?!??! There's still 2 months to go in the transfer window. The speculation linking United to Ribery and Benzema is just that - SPECULATION. There's been no real evidence of firm interest by Utd or any evidence that Utd made bids for either player. Utd make players into stars, they very rarely buy established star players. Wait until the transfer window closes before you make judgments on Ferguson's transfer dealings this summer.
And maybe you should read up on the history of Utd in the Ferguson era - you might learn a few things.
Where the "downward spiral" theroy may have some vailidity is with regards to the Champions' League. Realistically, reaching a third consecutive CL Final might just be beyond the current squad even allowing for some fresh signings between now and the close of the transfer window.
In all honesty, any side in the world, let alone Utd, are going to miss the impact that players of the calibre of Cristiano & Tevez have had in Europe, especially in those tense games at home when you're looking for a goal to break the deadlock, or away from Old Trafford when you're looking for that all important away goal. And, over the past couple of seasons they've both been huge impact players for Utd in the CL.
Like always though, time will tell. Everything else is just speculation.
Wake up, wake up I think you've just had a bad dream. Manchester United are the champions of England for a third time in a row. If that is a downward spiral, I like your infectious prediction of doom. By the way are you for real or are you just a dream?
Never ever doubt our youth policy because we have been built on it. Macheda is going to happen and Welleck is right behind him. We can see it, we don't need you to disrespect.
Cue Barcelona. Very easy on the transfer market - the only issue to be resolved is if they can get rid of Etoo to get in Villa. Nothing much is happening. The only thing happening in Spain is at one team where they are going Football Manager crazyesque. Couldn't care less what FM Perez 09 is on.
We lost a game in Rome. Get over it. We have. Why are you bitter or trying to find more excuses, you are not even a United fan. We got outplayed and beaten by the better team - a team we beat the year before to get to the final which we won. Sometimes you have to put your hands up and respect your opposition. I see no problems with that at all. Can't wait to see them again at the home of Madrid at next years final. That's how you stand up and be counted for. You writers are absolutely a joke. The cycle began last summer when our number seven went a little funny in the head. We saw this coming, so no shock at all. Also, I remember when Tevez was signed on loan two years ago. The agreement was that we could take up the option to buy him after the loan period. We did, he didn't want to stay because he got offered more money so good luck to him. By the way if he were to go to let's say Chelsea I could say that it was a football decision. If he goes to where everyone else thinks he's going too, then it's all down to the bank balance. Now that really is superior writing and analysis.
Oh and our manager likes to create new cycles. He's pretty good at winning things when he does that too. Maybe you have not realized that yet, but then I would say to you and your like that you have no idea what you are talking about. I wish I got paid to write.