James Moore: Losing Streak (25/06/10)
Friday 25 June 2010
Today's bet: England to win 1-0: 13-2 (Victor Chandler); England 12-1 to win on penalties, Germany 11-1 to win on penalties (Ladbrokes)
Never in the field of human conflict have I wanted to lose a 14-1 bet so badly. I highlighted Germany as being overpriced for the World Cup in the first edition of Losing Streak and followed my own advice. It means I'll be due a tidy sum from Paddy Power if they pull it off. But I can honestly say I don't want the money. I really, really, don't want it. Mr Power, you can keep the cash!
To my surprise, I'm actually mildly positive about England, for about the first time in the World Cup. And I might even be tempted to risk some money on the national side this time. It's true that they were anything but stunning against Slovenia, but they got the job done. And that's the important point. It was disappointing that they didn't get a second goal, which would have won them the group and secured an apparently easier draw through the early part of the knockout phase. But this hasn't been the most exciting of World Cups. It is now!
I also think the Germany game might have a further galvanizing effect on the team, in which there seems to have been a long overdue outbreak of unity. Recent results against our old rivals haven't been too bad and while Germany were stunning against Australia they were anything but against Serbia and looked only a bit better than workman-like against a Michael Essien-free Ghana. As such I'm willing to take the 17-10 on England winning after 90 minutes, available with William Hill and Paddy Power. It might also be worth an interest in a hard-fought 1-0 win by England, which is 13-2 with Victor Chandler. Since that first match, Germany's attack has looked rather toothless. I admit, it would be foolish to discount Miroslav Klose and Mesut Ozil looks like he could be a handful for England's defence. But we've looked reasonably tight at the back up until now and would have managed to go through the group phases without a goal against were it not for Mr Green's howler against the US.
If England can't win in 90 minutes, I don't fancy either of these countries to score in extra time. But Ladbrokes offer 11-1 on Germany winning on penalties, and 12-1 on England. Both outcomes look overpriced given that these two could cancel each other out.
Latest in Sport
England vs New Zealand second Test match report: England’s bold boast turns into hot air and humiliation
Fifa corruption: Sepp Blatter's right-hand man Jerome Valcke 'sent' $10m payment to Jack Warner in letter from the South African FA
England 'favourites' to host 2018 World Cup after Sepp Blatter resignation - Qatar and Russia under pressure
Michael Schumacher: Bernie Ecclestone reveals why he can't visit former F1 champion because he 'doesn't want to see him like that'
Brendan Rodgers' job safe for now but Liverpool owners plan for improvement
- 1 California man brutally beat 82-year-old Sikh grandfather he mistook for 'one of those people'
- 2 Charles Kennedy 'had better judgement drunk than many sober politicians' says Ian Hislop
- 5 We have six months to save the world, says leading economist
Thousands of teenage girls enduring debilitating illnesses after routine school cancer vaccination
Migrants in Kos: Photos show real tragedy after Brits abroad complain of 'awkward' holidays
British tourists complain that impoverished boat migrants are making holidays 'awkward' in Kos
Michael Gove determined to scrap the Human Rights Act – even if Scotland retains it
Threat to scrap Human Rights Act could see UK follow Nazi example, warns UN official
Church of England 'one generation away from extinction' after dramatic loss of followers