Final decision on Mourinho's fate hangs on FA Cup

Jose Mourinho's future at Chelsea will be decided only after the FA Cup final this Saturday. Despite statements from the club and indications that the manager will stay, Chelsea's owner Roman Abramovich is yet to make a final decision whether he wants to retain him.

So victory over Manchester United takes on greater importance than simply winning a second trophy this season. Sources close to Abramovich indicated to The Independent that, even though the chief executive, Peter Kenyon, issued a statement last month insisting that Mourinho would not be sacked, it would be only at the end of the season that Abramovich would really decide.

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Little is believed to have changed since then, especially as Abramovich is still to have a discussion with Mourinho who, after threatening to quit in January, has made it clear that he wants to stay and see out his contract, which expires in 2010. Yesterday he again reiterated his belief that he will not be sacked.

A complication is a strong belief from within Abramovich's circle of friends that the Russian has not been as enthusiastic about football as he previously was. This was thought to have been because of his disenchantment with Mourinho but other factors, including Abramovich's changing personal circumstances, have had a bearing.

However, Abramovich is aware that Mourinho will be difficult to replace and candidates such as Barcelona's Frank Rijkaard and Juventus's Didier Deschamps have shown little desire to move to Stamford Bridge. Deschamps is in danger of losing his job at Juve despite steering the club back into Serie A, and may return to France. Ironically, the Juve job is one of the posts that sources close to Mourinho have indicated he would be interested in should he leave.

The likelihood is that he will stay, but Mourinho will have to accept changes, including the expected arrival of Avram Grant, currently at Portsmouth, in some coaching or technical capacity. There is also likely to be less money spent than in previous years, with Abramovich expected to tell him to simply get on with what he has got.

Chelsea, partly because they have been stretched this season and with the African Nations Cup coming up next year, will not spend the tens of millions they have done in the past. Mourinho acknowledged this yesterday when he said there would not be great changes in the squad this summer. "No big investments, not involved in the big market."

He also acknowledged that mistakes had been made during a season in which Chelsea surrendered the Premiership title and again failed to lift the European Cup. In particular, he said that Chelsea had left themselves short in defence. "The thing we can criticise ourselves on is that in the other seasons we had a group of four central defenders," he said. "This season, three. The fourth was Robert Huth. Imagine a fit Robert Huth this season, he would have played an incredible role."