Liverpool vs Manchester City: Whose defence reigns supreme – and are cracks starting to appear in both?

How Liverpool and City compare: Ahead of the titanic clash at Anfield on Sunday, we compare the champions and challengers position-by-position

Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk (Getty Images)

For all their exhilarating attacking play, Manchester City and Liverpool’s dominance of the Premier League over the last two years lies just as much in defence. During their record-shattering Centurions season, when they scored more goals in a 38-game top-flight campaign than any other side, City also posted the league’s best defensive record that year, conceding just 27 times.

Pep Guardiola’s side let in just 23 goals during their successful 2018-19 title defence, but their challengers conceded one fewer. Led by the imperious Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool’s defence was not only last season’s best but one of the best in Premier League history. Only Jose Mourinho’s first title-winning Chelsea and Arsene Wenger’s 1997-98 Arsenal were more miserly.

These records are all the more impressive when you consider that – unlike those Chelsea and Arsenal teams of old – City and Liverpool play with fewer players who are solely committed to defending. In fact, two of Liverpool’s defenders are barely defenders at all. Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are the most important creators in Jurgen Klopp’s set-up, demonstrating the radical shift in expectations of full-backs over the last few years.

“This kind of full-back now is more like a midfield player,” Klopp said as a guest on Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football three years ago. “They play in half-spaces, they play really high. They are wingers sometimes, sometimes centre midfielders.” At the time, James Milner and Nathaniel Clyne were Klopp’s full-backs at Anfield but Milner had needed convincing to deputise in the position, believing he would see less of the ball there than in central midfield. Klopp told him: “Forget this, you will get the ball much more often than you can imagine.”

A few years later, Robertson and Alexander-Arnold are seeing plenty of the ball and often orchestrating Liverpool’s forays forward. This is particularly true of Alexander-Arnold, who fresh from breaking the record for the most Premier League assists by a defender last season, has started the new campaign in exceptional creative form. The right-back has created 40 chances for his team-mates, the joint-most of any player in the top flight and equal only to Kevin de Bruyne.

At the Etihad, Guardiola is known to consider his first year in Manchester as something of a ‘year zero’ given how he was forced to play the likes of Pablo Zabaleta, Gael Clichy, Bacary Sagna, Aleksandar Kolarov and even Jesus Navas in these two key positions. The £130m splurge on Benjamin Mendy, Kyle Walker and the since-departed Danilo which followed precipitated two seasons of unparalleled success. Oleksandr Zinchenko is now a naturalised full-back too, while Joao Cancelo and Angelino joined this summer.

“We signed guys who we know can keep marauding up and down their touchline,” says Mikel Arteta, in Pol Ballus and Lu Martin’s Pep’s City: The Making of a Superteam. “In the Premier League it’s vital to have guys who’ll offer massive amounts of intensity and athletic aggression in key one-vs-one moments. If you don’t have that, then for however much you construct intricate interior play, the big beasts of the Premier League will eventually press you and rob the ball from you.”

City’s full-back play is at times less adventurous than Robertson and Alexander-Arnold’s raiding forward. Guardiola is ultimately not as reliant as Klopp on creating opportunities from full-back, given the wealth of inventive talent he possesses in midfield, but Saturday’s win over Southampton showed how important they can still be in attacking areas. Walker assisted Sergio Aguero’s equaliser and then scored the winning goal, courtesy of a cross by fellow full-back Angelino.

Laporte is a significant loss for City (Reuters)

In the centre of defence, both teams have one outstanding player supplemented by a rotating cast of capable if limited deputies. This is especially the case at City, where the absence of Aymeric Laporte until February has caused significant problems. Nicolas Otamendi is error-prone, John Stones has suffered from injury and confidence issues and there is no replacement in place for Vincent Kompany. Fernandinho is a holding midfielder whose only minutes so far this season have come as a centre-half. He is coping admirably for a 34-year-old but the situation is less than ideal.

The only thing Van Dijk lacks, meanwhile, is a regular partner. He ended the 2017-18 campaign alongside Dejan Lovren, who declared himself one of the world’s best defenders at that summer’s World Cup and duly lost his starting place. Joe Gomez was excellent alongside Van Dijk until breaking his leg last December and now appears to be at the back of the queue. Joel Matip barely put a foot wrong once stepping in last season, performing well enough to earn himself a new five-year contract, but he is currently injured. Lovren appears to have taken his place, starting the cycle all over again.

There is more certainty between the sticks, where compatriots Ederson and Alisson are the respective, undisputed No 1s. Choosing between the two is a fool’s errand. If you prefer a greater range of distribution and confidence when rushing out on one-on-ones, pick Ederson. If you prefer slightly more consistent shot-stopping and a greater penalty box presence, choose Alisson. Neither has any notable weakness. Thankfully, there is only one person who has to play one and bench the other: Brazil’s head coach Tite. He chooses the Liverpool ‘keeper, for what it’s worth.

With every player fit and based upon form over the last 18 months, a combined defence between City and Liverpool would probably be at least three-fifths red. Van Dijk would partner Laporte, with Alexander-Arnold and Robertson on the flanks. Flip a coin for the goalkeeper and, as a defence, it would rival any in the world. Yet look closely and there are cracks emerging in both of these back-lines, especially if the start of this season is anything to go by.

According to StatsBomb’s expected goals model, City have had the Premier League’s best defence in both 2017-18 and 2018-19. But after 11 games of the new season, that has changed. The champions have conceded 10 goals, slightly below an expectation of 12.1. That makes for only the fourth-best record in the top flight. Is that the difference felt by losing Laporte, right there in black and white, or is something more systemic at the root of the regression?

Liverpool have the league’s second-best defensive record and joint-best expected numbers, but there are signs of decline there too. They have only kept three clean sheets across all competitions, against the rather meagre attacks of Burnley, Sheffield United and MK Dons. Again, injuries are a mitigating factor. Alisson’s absence was undoubtedly felt, even if Adrian deputised admirably, but the Brazilian has failed to shut out the opposition in four games since returning to Klopp’s starting line-up.

Project Liverpool and City’s current defensive numbers out across an entire 38-game season and the results are less than impressive. Liverpool’s forecast for the 2019-20 campaign is 31 goals conceded, City’s 35. These would be fairly average totals for two title contenders – level with Jose Mourinho’s 2014-15 Chelsea winners, in Liverpool’s case – and certainly not up to the excellent standard both set last year.

Of course, we are only 11 games in. Once Alisson and Laporte are fully integrated into starting line-ups and up to speed again, both defences will almost certainly improve. But for now, the cracks are there in two previously impregnable back-lines. Do not be surprised if Sunday is more like the 4-3 at Anfield in January 2018 than the goalless draw they played out last October.