Manchester United's moment of reckoning is approaching and the signs are not positive for Jose Mourinho

Mourinho said to judge his team's title credentials by the end of November but Sunday's derby provided an answer some three weeks early

When Manchester United next take to the pitch, at home to Crystal Palace on the Saturday after the coming international break, it will be the final Premier League fixture of a month that Jose Mourinho said would end with a reckoning.

Back in August, while reflecting on a summer of fudging and frustration at Old Trafford, Mourinho reiterated his belief that United were embarking on “a difficult season”.

Exactly how difficult would it be? That, he claimed, would only become clear in a few months’ time. “We have to wait until the end of November to understand if we can fight for the title.”

Two-and-a-half weeks remain until Mourinho’s self-imposed deadline, but if he still genuinely does not know whether United can mount a title challenge, he is surely the only one. Any lingering hopes of a serious tilt were lost in Sunday’s derby.

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City opened up a 12-point gap on United with victory in real terms, but the gap in perceived quality between the two clubs has seldom seemed wider since the Abu Dhabi takeover in 2008.

It is easily forgotten that when Mourinho and Guardiola arrived in Manchester, United and City had finished the previous campaign level on points, with only goal difference granting City a top-four finish ahead of their old rivals.

Two-and-a-half years on, United find themselves closer in the table to Neil Warnock’s Cardiff City than the defending champions, and perhaps not only in terms of points.

While the rest of last season’s top six hope to catch City by aspiring towards their sublime style, Mourinho’s United define themselves against it by playing reactive football. It is a justifiable approach, one that has served Mourinho well in the past, but it must be executed correctly.

The most worrying aspect for Mourinho should be that his side bear few of the qualities that his previous success has been built on. Take, for example, the defence.

After 12 games, Mourinho’s side have conceded 21 goals. It is the first time United have conceded more than 20 in their opening 12 games of a top-flight season since 1966. Mourinho, meanwhile, has only conceded more than 20 after 12 once in his career since taking charge of Porto. The year in question, he was out of work by Christmas.

United were disappointing in defeat to City (Getty)

There is also the curious fact that United, eighth in the table after Sunday’s defeat, are the only team in the top half of the Premier League to have a negative goal difference – a product of following narrow and nervy victories with wide and deserved defeats.

This is uncharted territory for Mourinho, who has never had a negative goal difference after 12 league games. The 20 goals scored is one of his lowest career totals too and in keeping with tallies from recent difficult seasons.

The statisticians can go on. This is the first time United have lost four of their opening 12 games in the Premier League era. Mourinho’s side have conceded 154 shots, the same number as second-bottom Huddersfield Town. Huddersfield, meanwhile, have two clean sheets to United’s one. Only basement club Fulham have fewer.

In something of a pre-emptive strike, Mourinho dismissed the idea that United’s derby defeat – and by extension, their underwhelming season – could be explained through numbers. “People who don’t understand football analyse it with stats,” he said. “I don’t go for stats. I go for what I felt in the game.”

Ignore the statistics, then, and ignore the fact this is a manager who has twice read from a sheet of pre-prepared figures to defend his points at press conferences this year. Go instead, like Mourinho, for how United’s season “feels”.

Does it feel like United were right to largely keep faith in last season’s squad? Does it feel like the few signings that were made have contributed much? Ultimately, does it feel like United are capable of mounting a title challenge?

Unfortunately, the answer to each of those questions is ‘no’, but then you suspect Mourinho already knows that, just as he knew back in August that by the end of November, the gap between his side and the very best would be there for all to see.