Premier League betting preview: Baggies to take full bragging rights

 

Roy Hodgson has knocked West Brom into fine shape when they hit the road this season and the Baggies look a decent bet at 11/5 to land maximum points in the Black Country derby at Molineux on Sunday.

Albion have won six and drawn three of their ten away matches against teams outside of the top six this term - beating the likes of Aston Villa, Newcastle and Stoke along the way - and you do fear for Wanderers in light of those statistics given how nervy they can be in front of their own supporters at times.

The Old Gold have only picked up one point from the last five matches on home soil and though we should expect them to seize the initiative and set out with all the right intentions against their arch rivals, only one team is likely to grow as the contest wears on and fatigue brings out the demons and those nagging voices of self-doubt.

The Baggies are set up to play on the counter, so it's no surprise their home record pales in comparison to those impressive figures in enemy territory. However, the fact that one of their two wins at Hawthorns came against Wolves only puts extra pressure on Mick McCarthy's men.

Wanderers were well beaten in the reverse fixture last October and now the onus will be on them to strike back, while the visitors can approach the game with much greater freedom, knowing that a draw wouldn't be considered a bad result.

Throw in the fact that West Brom are relatively detached from the relegation battle with a six-point cushion, whereas Wolves could be in the bottom three by kick-off and desperately need the points, it all amounts to a precarious psychological position that the hosts find themselves in.

In short, Albion are the better side, they have their local rivals exactly where they want them and they won't be short of incentive knowing that a league double will put a gloss on their season that is unlikely to be washed away whatever happens between now and May.

Meanwhile, Manchester City haven't been having things their own way on the road for a couple of months now and we think there's some value to be found in the 10/1 quotes on the Draw/Aston Villa double result in the weekend's final offering at Villa Park.

Conventional wisdom says that a long season and the loss of key players at crucial moments is starting to take its toll on the title favourites and there's obviously some mileage in that argument but we also believe there's an interesting pattern to their results that few pundits have picked up on and it points towards their match against Alex McLeish's men being anything but a formality.

City's 100 per cent home record tells you Roberto Mancini has found ways to conquer the defensive strategies of mid-ranking teams in that environment but those teams have now taken to deploying the same tactics in their own backyard with the full blessing of their own supporters and City are finding those teams much more resilient with packed grounds roaring their approval every time a visiting attack is snuffed out.

A quick look through City's away results reveals all. Beyond those standout victories at Old Trafford and White Hart Lane when they made a mockery of cavalier hosts, the Blues have only beaten bottom-five sides Bolton, QPR, Blackburn and Wigan - and three of them by the odd goal.

The residue shows they have failed to win all six away games (three draws and three defeats) against teams who currently sit between fourth and 15th in the division. In the three most recent examples - against West Brom, Sunderland and Everton - they have failed to score a single goal. Therefore, we also see value in the 14/1 available on Aston Villa to win 1-0.

One thing we can be sure of is that a Villa side managed by Alex McLeish won't be gung-ho and play right into City's hands. They will be cautious and get bodies behind the ball, while they also list three City cast-offs in their ranks who are bound to have a point to prove, not to mention the long-serving players driven on by the paranoia that their careers have stagnated while Gareth Barry and James Milner prosper among the elite.

The key to all City matches, it seems, is the first half. If Villa can get to half-time level, then they have every chance of success but it doesn't necessarily translate that an interval lead in their favour is a good thing - it merely gives City longer to throw the kitchen sink in search of an equaliser. If City score first, then all sorts of correct score outcomes are possible but few of them offer any real value.

Recommended bets:

1.5pts West Brom to beat Wolves at 11/5 (Betfred, Totesport)

0.5pt Aston Villa to beat Man City 1-0 at 14/1 (Bet365)

0.5pt Draw/Aston Villa double result at 10/1 (general)

For more betting news and views, please visit Bestofthebets.com. You can also follow Mike Holden on Twitter: @Miguel_BOTB

Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Arts and Entertainment
Ben Stiller as Derek Zoolander in the leaked trailer for Zoolander 2
film
Sport
footballArsenal take the Community Shield thanks to a sensational strike from Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Arts and Entertainment
Gemma Chan as synth Anita in Humans
film
News
Keeping it friendly: Tom Cruise on ‘The Daily Show’ with Jon Stewart
people
Arts and Entertainment
Ensemble cast: Jamie McCartney with ‘The Great Wall of Vagina’
artBritish artist Jamie McCartney explains a work that is designed to put women's minds at rest
News
Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump
people
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?

Bleacher Report

Daily Quiz
SPONSORED FEATURES
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Day In a Page

Turkey-Kurdish conflict: Obama's deal with Ankara is a betrayal of Syrian Kurds and may not even weaken Isis

US betrayal of old ally brings limited reward

Since the accord, the Turks have only waged war on Kurds while no US bomber has used Incirlik airbase, says Patrick Cockburn
VIPs gather for opening of second Suez Canal - but doubts linger over security

'A gift from Egypt to the rest of the world'

VIPs gather for opening of second Suez Canal - but is it really needed?
Jeremy Corbyn dresses abysmally. That's a great thing because it's genuine

Jeremy Corbyn dresses abysmally. That's a great thing because it's genuine

Fashion editor, Alexander Fury, applauds a man who clearly has more important things on his mind
The male menopause and intimations of mortality

Aches, pains and an inkling of mortality

So the male menopause is real, they say, but what would the Victorians, 'old' at 30, think of that, asks DJ Taylor
Man Booker Prize 2015: Anna Smaill - How can I possibly be on the list with these writers I have idolised?

'How can I possibly be on the list with these writers I have idolised?'

Man Booker Prize nominee Anna Smaill on the rise of Kiwi lit
Bettany Hughes interview: The historian on how Socrates would have solved Greece's problems

Bettany Hughes interview

The historian on how Socrates would have solved Greece's problems
Art of the state: Pyongyang propaganda posters to be exhibited in China

Art of the state

Pyongyang propaganda posters to be exhibited in China
Mildreds and Vanilla Black have given vegetarian food a makeover in new cookbooks

Vegetarian food gets a makeover

Long-time vegetarian Holly Williams tries to recreate some of the inventive recipes in Mildreds and Vanilla Black's new cookbooks
The haunting of Shirley Jackson: Was the gothic author's life really as bleak as her fiction?

The haunting of Shirley Jackson

Was the gothic author's life really as bleak as her fiction?
Bill Granger recipes: Heading off on holiday? Try out our chef's seaside-inspired dishes...

Bill Granger's seaside-inspired recipes

These dishes are so easy to make, our chef is almost embarrassed to call them recipes
Ashes 2015: Tourists are limp, leaderless and distinctly UnAustralian

Tourists are limp, leaderless and distinctly UnAustralian

A woefully out-of-form Michael Clarke embodies his team's fragile Ashes campaign, says Michael Calvin
Blairites be warned, this could be the moment Labour turns into Syriza

Andrew Grice: Inside Westminster

Blairites be warned, this could be the moment Labour turns into Syriza
HMS Victory: The mystery of Britain's worst naval disaster is finally solved - 271 years later

The mystery of Britain's worst naval disaster is finally solved - 271 years later

Exclusive: David Keys reveals the research that finally explains why HMS Victory went down with the loss of 1,100 lives
Survivors of the Nagasaki atomic bomb attack: Japan must not abandon its post-war pacifism

'I saw people so injured you couldn't tell if they were dead or alive'

Nagasaki survivors on why Japan must not abandon its post-war pacifism
Jon Stewart: The voice of Democrats who felt Obama had failed to deliver on his 'Yes We Can' slogan, and the voter he tried hardest to keep onside

The voter Obama tried hardest to keep onside

Outgoing The Daily Show host, Jon Stewart, became the voice of Democrats who felt the President had failed to deliver on his ‘Yes We Can’ slogan. Tim Walker charts the ups and downs of their 10-year relationship on screen