When can Chelsea guarantee winning the Premier League title? And what's the earliest it can happen?

Jose Mourinho's side look almost certain to triumph this season

Click to follow
The Independent Football

Defeat for Manchester City against Crystal Palace has allowed Chelsea to put one hand on the Premier League trophy.

With a seven point gap to their nearest rivals, plus a game in hand, it's difficult to imagine anyone but John Terry holding the oversized cup above his head come the end of the season.

So when can Chelsea be mathematically guaranteed of winning it?

Working on the basis that Chelsea beat Manchester United and Arsenal, who they face after a west London derby with QPR, those sides will be able to amass totals of 81 points (Arsenal) and 80 points (United). Manchester City meanwhile could rack up 82 points with a 100 per cent record between now and the end of the season.

That makes the golden number for Chelsea 83 points - 13 more than their current total of 70. Therefore four wins and draw (with United and Arsenal among the victories) are required, with would mean after playing Leicester away, a result against Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge on Sunday May 3 would guarantee them the title.

Chelsea could win the title on home turf


But could they do it before then?

Chelsea could mathematically win the title when they play Arsenal at the Emirates on Sunday April 26.

Working on the basis that in the next round of fixtures, Chelsea beat QPR, Arsenal lose to Burnley and Manchester United and Manchester City draw the derby, Chelsea would be on 73 points, with Arsenal on 63, United on 63 and City on 62 points with the chasing pack having six games remaining.

Arsenal could be Chelsea's opponents when the Blues win the league


In the next round of fixtures, working on the basis Chelsea beat Manchester United and City lose to West Ham (Arsenal aren't playing due to their FA Cup semi-final), Chelsea would be on 76 points, Arsenal on 63, United on 63 and City on 62 points.


Therefore, heading into their game with Arsenal, the maximum number of points United and City could accrue if they won their remaining five games would be 78 points and 77 points respectively. With Chelsea on 76 points before their trip to the Emirates, two more points would be required to stay ahead of the Manchester teams. By collecting those at Arsenal with a win, they would move on to 79 points whilst leaving the Gunners on 63  with Arsene Wenger's team having five games to play. Even if Arsenal won all of them, they still wouldn't be able to reach 79 points.