American Football: Patriots' Mr Cool shrugs off the weight of expectation

Super Bowls have to be dressed up in Roman numerals and an always powerful sense of history about to happen. This is why production No 38, sorry XXXVIII, which will unfold here on Sunday with the subtlety of a bombing raid on Baghdad, desperately needs something special from Tom Brady of the New England Patriots.

It is not enough that Brady, 26, is an extremely competent quarterback who has classic All-American looks. Or that in only his third year of NFL action he is expected to collect from under the noses of a snarling Carolina Panthers defensive unit a second of those winners' rings which have all the elegance of a small boulder.

No, that's not nearly good enough as America contemplates a showdown which, apart from a real or invented Brady, a special guest of President Bush for the State of the Union Address last week, is critically short of pizzazz. What Brady has to be is the new Joe Montana. The new Mr Cool. The new favourite fantasy when blue-collar America thinks about itself.

Brady shakes his head in disbelief when he reflects on the glory of the man he worshipped as a boy growing up in the shadow of Candlestick Park, the old battleground of the San Francisco 49ers sitting on a windblown promontory jutting into the Pacific.

"It's crazy talk," Brady says. "Joe was the greatest - the ultimate quarterback. He had everything you would want in a big-time quarterback. Me? I'm at a stage of my career when all I want is to get the job done and not let down my team-mates or my coach."

Steve Young, who after years of waiting in the margins of Montana's four Super Bowl wins, finally won the big game with a record-breaking six touchdown throws in a 49-26 ravaging of the San Diego Chargers nine years ago, was asked this week to comment on the comparisons which are bringing rage to those aficionados of the game whose admiration for Montana shaped a cult back in the Eighties.

Young wriggled for a moment, looked at the blue Texas sky for inspiration and then said, "Well, the first thing is that Tom Brady looks like Joe Montana. He looks like him on the field, too. He does the kind of things Joe did. But he's only been doing them for a couple of years. Joe did it all for 15 years and he won four Super Bowls. Judgement on Tom must come a lot, lot later."

Montana owns a vineyard in the Napa Valley now, but he has seen a little of Brady, and liked it. He met the young pretender briefly, and gave him some encouragement, if not a formal blessing as his annointed successor.

"The Kid" deserves as much, for some of his work is indeed Montanaesque. He recently resolved doubts about the strength of his throwing arm with a huge heave for an 82-yard touchdown, but it is his nerve in the late, pivotal moments of the big, close games which most excites those who think he can indeed enter the front rank of those who have played gridiron's most glamorous position.

Already, Brady has the best overtime statistics in the history of the game. His record is seven wins and no defeats when games go into sudden death. The next best is Terry Bradshaw, the big rocket-launcher from Louisiana who was a star of the Pittsburgh Steeler dynasty of the Seventies. Brady's statistics in carefully compiling those winning figures are simply phenomenal: 28 completed throws in 32 attempts for 341 yards, one touchdown and, most vital of all, not a single interception.

His coach, Bill Belichick, warms himself on the brightness of his quarterback. "He can decode a defense with one glance after the snap of the ball," the coach says. "He picks those things up right away. He sees the field extremely well. He sees the fine positioning of a corner back, and says that maybe we could exploit that next time. You wouldn't want to compare any young quarterback with Joe Montana. That's a lot of pressure. But Brady is good - and he's getting better."

His finest moment thus far was in the Super Bowl in Tampa two years ago when he guided the Patriots to the field position from which Adam Vinatieri's kick landed the winning goal against the St Louis Rams as the clock wound down to its last seconds.

He knows he has to live now under the shadow of Montana. "I suppose people have to make comparisons, it's part of the game, and you run into them when you have some success. I just think comparing me to Joe Cool is a little bit unrealistic. I would love to have some of his traits, but in so many respects there is such a long way to go."

It was a long road, indeed, that Montana travelled. He won Super Bowls that were unbearably tight - twice against Cincinnati - and two that were blown wide open by the sheer force of his brilliance. In the last category two of the great young quarterbacks, Dan Marino of Miami and John Elway of Denver, were obliged to watch the work of a master.

In one of the Cincinnati games, Montana, in the heat of the action, turned to a team-mate and said, "Hey, see that guy in the stands? It's the movie star John Candy". Mr Cool, indeed. But even when your nerve is that refrigerated, there is always an avalanche waiting to happen.

The one that got Montana came in Candlestick Park in January 1990, in the NFC Championship game against the New York Giants. Montana was going for his fifth Super Bowl win, but for once he didn't sense the big Giants defensive lineman Leonard Marshall pounding behind him. The hit, some speculated, might have been heard on Fisherman's Wharf. Later in the dressing-room, Montana's face was the colour of old parchment. He was never the same again. But yes, he was something extraordinary and Tom Brady is right not to believe everything he hears and reads.

"I know what I have to do, and it isn't racing ahead of my time," Brady says. "I have a ball game to win - and, I hope, quite a few more after that."

Back in the Napa Valley, it is easy to believe Joe Cool pours himself a glass of good red and nods his approval.

SHOWDOWN IN HOUSTON WHERE THE GAME WILL BE WON AND LOST

OFFENSE

The New England Patriots boast a quarterback of poise and accuracy in Tom Brady. Two years ago, Brady led his team to a surprise victory over the St Louis Rams, and has since matured into a player who rarely makes mistakes. Comparisons with the legendary Joe Montana are premature, but his calm under fire is impressive and, if given time, he will complete passes.

Brady does not have a primary receiver to aim at, preferring instead to utilise the strengths of a group which includes the veteran Troy Brown and the rookie Bethel Johnson. David Givens, Deion Branch and the tight end Christian Fauria are also reliable targets.

In recent weeks, the Patriots have unleashed the no-frills running back Antowain Smith, but against Carolina they may run the ball with the shifty Kevin Faulk. Smith is a battering ram, while Faulk provides more elusiveness.

The Carolina quarterback, Jake Delhomme, is a veteran of tours of duty in Frankfurt and Amsterdam with NFL Europe, but the former New Orleans Saint has found a home in Charlotte.

One of the genuine surprises of the season, Delhomme was expected to struggle but has blossomed in the spotlight instead. His leadership has evolved, while his accuracy is steadily improving. Delhomme's big game experience is limited: playing in a World Bowl is a far cry from the hoopla of the Super Bowl.

Delhomme's main target has been Steve Smith, who has finally brought a volcanic temper under control to emerge as a genuine playmaker. The veteran Muhsin Mohammed brings experience.

However, the key to Carolina is the running back Stephen Davis, who bludgeoned his way to almost 1,500 yards this season. Now fully healthy after a leg strain, Davis represents the Panthers' best chance of an upset.

DEFENSE

If the old saying that defense wins championships holds true, then the Patriots are on their way to another Super Bowl, because no team sows chaos and confusion quite like New England. To nobody's surprise, they allowed the fewest points in the league in 2003.

With a dazzling cocktail of coverages, stunts and blitzes, the Patriots have befuddled the best quarterbacks in the business on a consistent basis. In the cornerback Ty Law, they boast the sport's best player at his position, while few hit with the intensity of the safety Rodney Harrison.

Carolina's strength is their imposing front four, reckoned to be the most intimidating defensive line in the league.

With 19 sacks between them, Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker apply intense pressure, while the gargantuan Kris Jenkins, a deceptively nimble 335-pounder, is formidable against the run.

The reported weakness of the Panthers is their secondary. However, this unit did not allow a passing touchdown in three play-off games, while also helping themselves to eight interceptions. In the rookie Ricky Manning, they have an emerging superstar.

SPECIAL TEAMS

If Super Bowl XXXVIII is close, it may come down to the kicking game. New England's Adam Vinatieri has had a below-average season by his standards, but he rarely fails in pressure situations. His counterpart, John Kasay, is reliable but prone to the occasional mental lapse.

A key Patriot advantage could be felt in the return game. Bethel Johnson will fancy his chances against a porous Carolina coverage unit which allowed an unhealthy six returns for touchdowns.

COACHING

New England's Bill Belichick, aloof and distant in approach, is nevertheless a strategic mastermind who commands the utmost respect. A defensive genius, Belichick has been on the coaching staff of three previous Super Bowl-winners, and will have his players perfectly prepared.

Two years ago, John Fox inherited a Carolina team which had just lost 15 games in a row, and the transformation in their fortunes owes much to his driving leadership. Like Belichick, Fox is a defensive guru, but his only previous Super Bowl ended in defeat with the New York Giants three years ago.

THE VERDICT

Logic points to a New England victory in a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle of wills. However, if the Panthers can establish a sound running game, and if their defence can apply consistent pressure to Brady, an upset is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Nick Halling