Racing: Gunner in the firing line

They do say that the best way to find the winner of the Grand National is to look for the story. And should Gunner Welburn triumph at Aintree on Saturday week, eat your heart out Rooney and Taylor. The big chestnut, the best hunter- chaser in the country, is trained by Caroline Bailey. Twenty years ago her father Dick Saunders, who lost his final battle with cancer in January, rode to victory on Grittar, the last hunter to win the ultimate cross-country test.

Before he died, Saunders had told his family: "If anything happens to me, keep the horses going." Victory for Gunner Welburn would be the ultimate tribute to a fine man but Bailey, being a horsewoman, is a bit of a realist and does not wish to tempt poignant fate.

"Fairytales don't just happen like that," she said, before adding: "But I suppose this is the one race where they might. We're going in hope, anyway." The parallels and threads are there.

Bailey, 42, rode Grittar in his formative days and Saunders reciprocated by contributing from the saddle to Gunner Welburn's early education. Grittar won the Aintree Fox Hunters' the year before his National triumph; Gunner Welburn won the hunter crown last year. Grittar warmed up for the National with a defeat at Cheltenham (sixth in the Gold Cup); Gunner Welburn was second in the Foxhunters' at the Festival two weeks ago.

He has come out of his half-length defeat in fine fettle and will have his penultimate serious piece of work this morning in a getting-to-know-you session with his big-race jockey Tony Dobbin, already with one National under his belt. "He'll have a sit on him and pop him over some of our schooling fences, just to get the feel of him," said Bailey. "We haven't got Aintree-type fences, but he's been there, done that. And he's a very easy ride. You can put him anywhere in a race, and he's a great jumper."

That particular skill was put to the test at Becher's last year when, as soon as Gunner Welburn landed over the fence, he was faced with a rival sprawling in front of him. But though big – he stands 16.3 hands – he is nimble, and bounced straight over the living obstacle, a testament to self-preservation learned in the hunting field.

The National will be the first time the 10-year old, like last year's winner Red Marauder a son of Gunner B, has had a professional on his back. "With just 10 stone on his back," said Bailey, "he'll think he's loose."

Gunner Welburn, who carries the colours of William Ritson, has temporarily left Bailey's point-to-point yard, but has taken his change of address in his stride. Because he is not a "family" horse, the rules say that he must, for races other than hunter-chases, be trained from a public yard. But he has not moved far, just a mile down the road to the stables of Bailey's sister-in-law Tik Saunders, and thus is able to use his familiar gallops.

He also still has the services of his devoted lass Lynne Davison, who has looked after him since he was four. "He has settled in fine," said Bailey. "He's eating and drinking and doing all the things he should."

Bailey will be keeping her fingers crossed for rain over the next nine days. "He doesn't absolutely need soft ground," she said, "but it slows the pace down and enables him to travel. He wouldn't have the class of some of the others on faster ground." Since his good showing at Cheltenham, Gunner Welburn's odds have been cut and 25-1 is the best available against history repeating itself.

Moor Lane, the National favourite until a defeat at Newbury earlier this month that involved some slipshod jumping, was foot-perfect yesterday morning in a schooling session over some specially adapted fences at Ian Balding's Kingsclere base. Balding had some National-lookalike obstacles constructed and Barry Fenton, who will be on board at Aintree, partnered the Great Yorkshire Chase winner. Trainer's son and assistant Andrew reported: "He jumped very well and everyone is happy with him."

The National is one of the few major prizes missing from Tony McCoy's exemplary CV, but before Saturday week there is the matter of that seasonal numerical record to wrest from Sir Gordon Richards. McCoy, who needs five winners to top the 1947 mark of 269, returns to action today after a rare mid-season sunshine break taken to freshen mind as much as body after a rotten Cheltenham with four fancied rides at Exeter.