Survival of the fittest as 'carnage' blows in

So much for the absence of Tiger Woods making this the easiest Open in recent memory for his rivals. That particular force of nature may be back at home nursing his knee, but there seems to be another one brewing just in time to destroy the field at the Southport links this morning. Heavy rain and 25mph winds are forecast and if the weathermen are correct then Greg Norman's prophecy yesterday will be realised. "It will be carnage here tomorrow," declared the double champion. "Absolute carnage." Believe it, these first two days could just prove a X-rated rerun of Carnoustie, 1999.

The rough is certainly thick enough, the fairways narrow enough and, even if the toughened-up Birkdale is not the longest course on the Championship rota, it is still no pitch and putt – even in the sunshine and a breathless breeze. By Friday evening many of this 156-strong field may well be envying Woods his reconstructed anterior cruciate ligament. At least there are analgesics out there with the adequate strength to counter his pain.

Justin Rose's first shot will certainly be different to his last here in 1998. Then, that boy's own chip-in was achieved on a beautiful summer eve designed for the Sabbath; it is likely to be just as biblical here at 7.36am today. "It will be brutally tough," said the Englishman. "And you've just got to deal with it on the day. Survival is the name of the game."

Yesterday, Rose decided the name of his game would be game preservation, as he kept his powder dry and, more importantly, in one pile by declining to go out in gales that served up an ominous taste of the conditions to come. Padraig Harrington did walk 18, but that is all he effectively did, "walk", and after being sure of his participation on Tuesday now rates his chances at no better than 75 percent of teeing it up this morning.

"It is not the pain that will force me out," said Harrington, referring to the wrist he bizarrely injured on Saturday night while bashing an impact bag. "It'll be whether it affects my ability to play. I'll test it on the range tomorrow and will give it a go. However, it's probably only 50-50 that I'll make it through all four rounds". Then he shrugged his shoulders a little and gave a resigned smile as he made his admission, but inside he must have been tearing out his heart, especially as the severe nature of the task ahead would normally be heaven for this water-proofed sadist.

He had ventured out there with so much optimism yesterday morning after a rigorous warm-up session on the practice area, but lasted just two shots before he was forced to perform a hasty U-turn and head quickly to the physio truck. After receiving laser treatment, he delighted the fans by returning to the tee box with his wrist strapped, but again the tee shot "jarred". So, a belligerent Harrington refused to go home, but proceeded to glean what knowledge he could off his playing partners and limited himself to a few chips and a few putts. The fact is he has not yet played the back nine here and acclimatisation happens to be vital on this wonderfully subtle links.

Afterwards, Harrington tried to sound positive by declaring: "I've had this kind of preparation before." But surely the best he can hope now is to make it to Sunday with his body and scorecard in one piece. The truth is that the defending champion is only marginally more likely to prevail this weekend than the best player in the world and that is a shame for those individuals and for this tournament. It had been that sort of build-up to a major jinxed by the rare outbreak of golfing injuries.

Yet to say the mood was one of depression here last night would be way off the mark. An Open is an Open and this one had its own narrative, even before Craig Parry was due to hit the first drive at 6.30am today. The prologue suggested that Sergio Garcia would redress his near miss of last year, although the quality and proximity of the players listed below the Spaniard on the betting lists only highlighted just how open this Open could prove.

Most notably, there is Ernie Els, that perpetual stalker of the links leader boards, and Lee Westwood, a professional with so much form he fairly leaps out of the Players' Guide.

Phil Mickelson is also right up there but it is difficult to make a convincing case for this erratic driver in winds this savage, on a surface this unsuitable. There is always the chance , of course, that the acting world No 1's fabled short game will keep him in the tournament until Saturday and if he does, as Rose puts it, "survive", then he could awake to the anticipated fine weather of the weekend with the mythical wind at his back. That would send the watching Woods bonkers over in Orlando and virtually ensure he comes back next year more determined than ever.

For this reason, perhaps we should pray for a fourth Mickelson major, although at Open time it is almost impossible to stop the patriotic juices from flowing. The fear here is that Rose will find the return to the scene of his amateur glory all too much and without Luke Donald – yep, also crocked – the onus falls squarely on Westwood. At last, he appears ready to accept the burden on his shoulders. "I have never entered an Open so confident," he insisted. His time appears nigh and if it is, then to hell with all those who say it will somehow be demeaned by the non-attendance of Woods

Peter Alliss put it best. "One journalist wrote that it will be a travesty whoever is crowned champion because of the absence of one man," the BBC veteran said. "Well, to use one of my favourite phrases on TV – 'total bollocks'." Indeed, whoever is announced as the "Champion Golfer of 2008" come Sunday evening will be as worthy as any of the 136 who have triumphed before. In fact, in the predicted carnage of Birkdale he could even be classed as worthier than most of his predecessors. Tiger or no Tiger. Padraig or no Padraig.

The Open: Tee-off times for first round at Royal Birkdale

(GB or Irl unless stated)

06.30 L Glover (US), C Parry (Aus), S Dyson

06.41 J-B Gonnet (Fr), P Perez (US), P Fowler (Aus)

06.52 S Kjeldsen (Den), B Jones (Aus), M Kuchar (US)

07.03 J Kelly (US), D Fichardt (SA), D McGrane

07.14 G Storm, S Strange (Aus), S Lyle

07.25 R Green (Aus), M Calcavecchia (US), A Hansen (Den)

07.36 T Watson (US), J Rose, A Baddeley (Aus)

07.47 G Ogilvy (Aus), O Wilson, D Love III (US)

07.58 R Goosen (SA), P Harrington, J Leonard (US)

08.09 R Sterne (SA), H Stenson (Swe), J Quinney (US)

08.20 H Mahan (US), V Singh (Fiji), R Saxton (Neth)

08.31 M Kaymer (Ger), S Verplank (US), E Els (SA)

08.42 D Howell, A Romero (Arg), J B Holmes (US)

08.58 L Westwood, K J Choi (S Kor), B Curtis (US)

09.09 N O'Hern (Aus), I Poulter, P Goydos (US)

09.20 P Mickelson (US), H Tanihara (Japan), P Casey

09.31 B Weekley (US), C Montgomerie, M Weir (Can)

09.42 T Taniguchi (Japan), R Finch, J Daly (US)

09.53 D Duval (US), S Khan, D Frost (SA)

10.04 R Beem (US), P Edberg (Swe), T Sherreard

10.15 M Matsumura (Japan), T Gillis (US), B Hume

10.26 S Kai (Japan), T Petrovic (US), D Horsey

10.37 A Canete (Arg), C Barlow (US), P Archer

10.48 J Elson, R Blizard (Aus), J Bevan

10.59 A Blyth (Aus), J Howarth, J Cunliffe (SA)

11.10 T Aiken (SA), G Boyd, B Lamb (Aus)

11.41 J van de Velde (Fr), S Webster, A Tampion (Aus)

11.52 P Walton, D Smail (NZ), M Letzig (US)

12.03 P Waring, H Otto (SA), K Stadler (US)

12.14 Paul Lawrie, R Mediate (US), A Cabrera (Arg)

12.25 N Fasth (Swe), M O'Meara (US), M Campbell (NZ)

12.36 G McDowell, R Sabbatini (SA), T Hamilton (US)

12.47 J Furyk (US), N Dougherty, C Villegas (Col)

12.58 R Karlsson (Swe), G Norman (Aus), W Austin (US)

13.09 R Allenby (Aus), S Stricker (US), B Hebert (Fr)

13.20 A Scott (Aus), Z Johnson (US), P Larrazabal (Sp)

13.31 G Havret (Fr), T Clark (SA), S Cink (US)

13.42 Wen-chong Liang (Ch), F Jacobson (Swe), J Overton (US)

13.53 T Immelman (SA), S Hansen (Den), A Kim (US)

14.09 M A Jimenez (Sp), S Ames (Can), C Howell III (US)

14.20 P Hanson (Swe), B Bryant (US), R Pampling (Aus)

14.31 R Imada (Japan), S Garcia (Sp), S O'Hair (US)

14.42 S Appleby (Aus), B Snedeker (US), R Fisher

14.53 A Yano (Japan), J Edfors (Swe), T Lehman (US)

15.04 S Wakefield, J Williamson (US), J Kingston (SA)

15.15 G Bourdy (Fr), D Chia (Malay), J Rollins (US)

15.26 P Marksaeng (Thai), C Wood, S McCarron (US)

15.37 A Wall, A Noren (Swe), E Porter (Aus)

15.48 P Baker, H Iwata (Japan), A Cejka (Ger)

15.59 D Labelle (US), Chih-bing Lam (Sing), J-F Lima (Por)

16.10 M Wiegele (Aut), A Que (Phil), D McGuigan

16.21 J Lomas, Y Tsukada (Japan), P Appleyard

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