Sponsored feature

Grand National runners 2012 to back and oppose based on weight

 

The Grand National can be a difficult but rewarding contest in which to back the winner. There are certain ways to narrow the race down from forty runners to perhaps less than half that number in possible winners and one of the ways to do that is to examine which weights have been most successful over the years in the Grand National.

With this race being a handicap, and the horses carrying different weights based on the ability they have shown on the racecourse to date, there are going to be certain types to follow in this race. A full list of Grand National runners is available here.

A few years ago it could be argued that horses carrying over 11 stone in the Grand National had very little chance in the race, only one horse had done so in over twenty years (and that was Hedgehunter in 2005 carrying just 11-1) until Don’t Push It won in 2010 carrying 11-5 and now many Grand National trends fans will just put a thick line through any runner carrying over 11-5 as the last horse to win with more than 11-5 on his back was Grand National Red Rum in 1977 and on that occasion he was winning the race for a fourth time! Too much weight can certainly stop any horse and the only horses in the last seven runnings to even place with more than 11-5 on their back are noted Grand National specialists who had previously at least placed in the race. Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised could therefore struggle to place off top weight (11-10) if he takes his chance whilst last year’s winner Ballabriggs, who will carry 11-09 if Synchronised runs, will only place at best if these stats are upheld.

Are things any better for those at the bottom of the weights in the Grand National? Not really, unfortunately, for those who just sneak into the race this year. Horses carrying 10-6 or less have as bad a record at producing the winner as the over 11 stone horses, just two winners this century have carried 11-6 or less to victory and they were only slightly fancied in the betting with Bindaree winning at 20/1 in 2002 and Silver Birch winning at 33/1 in 2007. With few winners coming from the top and bottom of the weights, it is the horses carrying 10-7 to 11 stone inclusive who have won eight of the last twelve Grand Nationals. Their odds have ranged from 7/1 joint favourite (Comply Or Die in 2008) to 100/1 rank outsider (Mon Mome in 2009) and this weight range could narrow the field down to no more than sixteen runners this year.

 

So the winner is most likely to carry somewhere between 10-7 and 11-0 to victory this year but can anything change that? Well, if the ground was to come up soft on Saturday (there is some rain about) then it is highly likely you would want to consider horses carrying a little less weight. These stats are mostly based on the Grand National being run on good ground and the last three times the Grand National has been run on soft or heavy going, the winners have carried 10-12, 10-5 and 10-3 which suggests that weight counts for even more when extra stamina is required on soft ground.  Find out what Grand National runners fit these criteria.

 

Suggested Topics
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Latest in Sport
Sport
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
SPONSORED FEATURES
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Account Manager / Media Sales - OTE up to £30,000

£20000 - £30000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This award-winning company, whi...

Recruitment Genius: Senior Software Developer

£40000 - £50000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is a unique & exciting opp...

Recruitment Genius: UX Consultant

£35000 - £45000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: You will be working with a 8 st...

Recruitment Genius: Part-time Editor

£8000 - £12000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A unique opportunity has arisen ...

Day In a Page

A groundbreaking study of 'Britain's Atlantis' long buried at the bottom of the North Sea could revolutionise how we see our prehistoric past

Britain's Atlantis

Scientific study beneath North Sea could revolutionise how we see the past
The Queen has 'done and said nothing that anybody will remember,' says Starkey

The Queen has 'done and said nothing that anybody will remember'

David Starkey's assessment
Oliver Sacks said his life has been 'an enormous privilege and adventure'

'An enormous privilege and adventure'

Oliver Sacks writing about his life
'Gibraltar is British, and it is going to stay British forever'

'Gibraltar is British, and it is going to stay British forever'

The Rock's Chief Minister hits back at Spanish government's 'lies'
Britain is still addicted to 'dirty coal'

Britain still addicted to 'dirty' coal

Biggest energy suppliers are more dependent on fossil fuel than a decade ago
Orthorexia nervosa: How becoming obsessed with healthy eating can lead to malnutrition

Orthorexia nervosa

How becoming obsessed with healthy eating can lead to malnutrition
Lady Chatterley is not obscene, says TV director

Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Director Jed Mercurio on why DH Lawrence's novel 'is not an obscene story'
Farmers in tropical forests are training ants to kill off bigger pests

Set a pest to catch a pest

Farmers in tropical forests are training ants to kill off bigger pests
Mexico: A culture that celebrates darkness as an essential part of life

The dark side of Mexico

A culture that celebrates darkness as an essential part of life
Being sexually assaulted was not your fault, Chrissie Hynde. Don't tell other victims it was theirs

Being sexually assaulted was not your fault, Chrissie Hynde

Please don't tell other victims it was theirs
A nap a day could save your life - and here's why

A nap a day could save your life

A midday nap is 'associated with reduced blood pressure'
If men are so obsessed by sex, why do they clam up when confronted with the grisly realities?

If men are so obsessed by sex...

...why do they clam up when confronted with the grisly realities?
The comedy titans of Avalon on their attempt to save BBC3

Jon Thoday and Richard Allen-Turner

The comedy titans of Avalon on their attempt to save BBC3
The bathing machine is back... but with a difference

Rolling in the deep

The bathing machine is back but with a difference
Part-privatised tests, new age limits, driverless cars: Tories plot motoring revolution

Conservatives plot a motoring revolution

Draft report reveals biggest reform to regulations since driving test introduced in 1935