Sponsored feature

Grand National runners 2012 to back and oppose based on weight

 

The Grand National can be a difficult but rewarding contest in which to back the winner. There are certain ways to narrow the race down from forty runners to perhaps less than half that number in possible winners and one of the ways to do that is to examine which weights have been most successful over the years in the Grand National.

With this race being a handicap, and the horses carrying different weights based on the ability they have shown on the racecourse to date, there are going to be certain types to follow in this race. A full list of Grand National runners is available here.

A few years ago it could be argued that horses carrying over 11 stone in the Grand National had very little chance in the race, only one horse had done so in over twenty years (and that was Hedgehunter in 2005 carrying just 11-1) until Don’t Push It won in 2010 carrying 11-5 and now many Grand National trends fans will just put a thick line through any runner carrying over 11-5 as the last horse to win with more than 11-5 on his back was Grand National Red Rum in 1977 and on that occasion he was winning the race for a fourth time! Too much weight can certainly stop any horse and the only horses in the last seven runnings to even place with more than 11-5 on their back are noted Grand National specialists who had previously at least placed in the race. Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised could therefore struggle to place off top weight (11-10) if he takes his chance whilst last year’s winner Ballabriggs, who will carry 11-09 if Synchronised runs, will only place at best if these stats are upheld.

Are things any better for those at the bottom of the weights in the Grand National? Not really, unfortunately, for those who just sneak into the race this year. Horses carrying 10-6 or less have as bad a record at producing the winner as the over 11 stone horses, just two winners this century have carried 11-6 or less to victory and they were only slightly fancied in the betting with Bindaree winning at 20/1 in 2002 and Silver Birch winning at 33/1 in 2007. With few winners coming from the top and bottom of the weights, it is the horses carrying 10-7 to 11 stone inclusive who have won eight of the last twelve Grand Nationals. Their odds have ranged from 7/1 joint favourite (Comply Or Die in 2008) to 100/1 rank outsider (Mon Mome in 2009) and this weight range could narrow the field down to no more than sixteen runners this year.

 

So the winner is most likely to carry somewhere between 10-7 and 11-0 to victory this year but can anything change that? Well, if the ground was to come up soft on Saturday (there is some rain about) then it is highly likely you would want to consider horses carrying a little less weight. These stats are mostly based on the Grand National being run on good ground and the last three times the Grand National has been run on soft or heavy going, the winners have carried 10-12, 10-5 and 10-3 which suggests that weight counts for even more when extra stamina is required on soft ground.  Find out what Grand National runners fit these criteria.

 

Suggested Topics
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Caption competition
Caption competition
  • Get to the point
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Client Services Assistant

£18000 - £20000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Client Services Assistant is ...

Recruitment Genius: Junior / Senior Sales Broker - OTE £100,000

£20000 - £100000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an excellent opportuni...

Recruitment Genius: Duty Manager

Negotiable: Recruitment Genius: A Duty Manager is required to join one of the ...

Recruitment Genius: Team Leader

Negotiable: Recruitment Genius: A Team Leader is required to join one of the l...

Day In a Page

No postcode? No vote

Floating voters

How living on a houseboat meant I didn't officially 'exist'
Louis Theroux's affable Englishman routine begins to wear thin

By Reason of Insanity

Louis Theroux's affable Englishman routine begins to wear thin
Power dressing is back – but no shoulderpads!

Power dressing is back

But banish all thoughts of Eighties shoulderpads
Spanish stone-age cave paintings 'under threat' after being re-opened to the public

Spanish stone-age cave paintings in Altamira 'under threat'

Caves were re-opened to the public
'I was the bookies’ favourite to be first to leave the Cabinet'

Vince Cable interview

'I was the bookies’ favourite to be first to leave the Cabinet'
Election 2015: How many of the Government's coalition agreement promises have been kept?

Promises, promises

But how many coalition agreement pledges have been kept?
The Gaza fisherman who built his own reef - and was shot dead there by an Israeli gunboat

The death of a Gaza fisherman

He built his own reef, and was fatally shot there by an Israeli gunboat
Saudi Arabia's airstrikes in Yemen are fuelling the Gulf's fire

Saudi airstrikes are fuelling the Gulf's fire

Arab intervention in Yemen risks entrenching Sunni-Shia divide and handing a victory to Isis, says Patrick Cockburn
Zayn Malik's departure from One Direction shows the perils of fame in the age of social media

The only direction Zayn could go

We wince at the anguish of One Direction's fans, but Malik's departure shows the perils of fame in the age of social media
Young Magician of the Year 2015: Meet the schoolgirl from Newcastle who has her heart set on being the competition's first female winner

Spells like teen spirit

A 16-year-old from Newcastle has set her heart on being the first female to win Young Magician of the Year. Jonathan Owen meets her
Jonathan Anderson: If fashion is a cycle, this young man knows just how to ride it

If fashion is a cycle, this young man knows just how to ride it

British designer Jonathan Anderson is putting his stamp on venerable house Loewe
Number plates scheme could provide a licence to offend in the land of the free

Licence to offend in the land of the free

Cash-strapped states have hit on a way of making money out of drivers that may be in collision with the First Amendment, says Rupert Cornwell
From farm to fork: Meet the Cornish fishermen, vegetable-growers and butchers causing a stir in London's top restaurants

From farm to fork in Cornwall

One man is bringing together Cornwall's most accomplished growers, fishermen and butchers with London's best chefs to put the finest, freshest produce on the plates of some of the country’s best restaurants
Robert Parker interview: The world's top wine critic on tasting 10,000 bottles a year, absurd drinking notes and New World wannabes

Robert Parker interview

The world's top wine critic on tasting 10,000 bottles a year, absurd drinking notes and New World wannabes
Don't believe the stereotype - or should you?

Don't believe the stereotype - or should you?

We exaggerate regional traits and turn them into jokes - and those on the receiving end are in on it too, says DJ Taylor