Grand National 2014 betting: A Process Of Elimination (but don’t bet on it!)

Tidal Bay, Balthazar King and Chance Du Roy tick all the boxes

I’m not normally one for following trends (just ask the wife) but it’s a policy that can pay dividends in the National, although it has to be admitted that last year’s winner Auroras Encore knocked most of them into a cocked hat.

However, it’s widely accepted that this is one of the best quality fields ever to line up for a Grand National with loads of horses with a touch of class in with a genuine chance, and we have to find some way of whittling the 40 runners down to a manageable number. Let’s take a few of the trends over the last decade in isolation.

Ten out of the last ten winners had won a chase over at last three miles – which gets rid of a few including Hunt Ball. Nine out of the last ten had at least one top three finish in the last three runs (Auroras Encore being the exception). That puts a line through Prince de Beauchene (who I otherwise fancied), plus Colbert Station among others.

Ten out of ten had started at least ten races over fences, ruling out the well backed Rocky Creek, plus Mountainous. We still have loads left so I’m going to make it really difficult for a horse to qualify – I’m going to add in that my selections need to have won at least once over three miles or more; have won a race worth at least £30,000; have run at least 10 times over chase fences; and need to have won at least once this season. And just to make it really difficult, I’m not going to back anything that’s fallen more than twice in its whole career. Surely nothing ticks all the boxes?

Actually three do – Paul Nicholls’ Tidal Bay (14-1), who needs to defy not only top weight, but history on age grounds as well; and two of Philip Hobbs’ mounts in Balthazar King (25-1) and Chance Du Roy (33-1). If I take out the need to have run before over the National fences, Monbeg Dude (14-1) and Lion Na Bernai (33-1) also come into it. My best advice though it this: don’t bet your mortgage on them! Last year the blindfold and pin approach would have done you much better. Good luck and enjoy the biggest betting event in the calendar...

Gareth’s Three Against The Field:
Tidal Bay (16-1), Chance Du Roy (40-1), Monbeg Dude (14-1)

Money Comes For Double Seven
There’s always one late springer in the market at the National (remember Sea Bass last year?) and this year it’s the Irish trained Double Seven, who has been backed from 66/1 on January 1st to as short as 12-1 in the last 48 hours, after it was announced that Tony McCoy will ride.

This has in turn led to Boylesports cutting the price about there being an Irish trained winner into 7/2. Another one for money has been The Rainbow Hunter. Kim Bailey’s charge was a 100/1 shot on January 1st but the best price you will get now is 33/1.

Fancy a novelty bet on the Grand National? Click HERE.
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Caption competition
Caption competition
  • Get to the point
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Senior Digital Marketing Consultant

£28000 - £45000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Senior Digital Marketing Cons...

Recruitment Genius: Assistant Stores Keeper

£16640 - £18500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An Assistant Stores Keeper is r...

Recruitment Genius: Claims Administrator

£16000 - £18500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an excellent opportunit...

Recruitment Genius: Software Developer - C# / ASP.NET / SQL

£17000 - £30000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Developer required to join a bu...

Day In a Page

'It was first time I had ever tasted chocolate. I kept a piece, and when Amsterdam was liberated, I gave it to the first Allied soldier I saw'

Bread from heaven

Dutch survivors thank RAF for World War II drop that saved millions
Britain will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power - Labour

How 'the Axe' helped Labour

UK will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power
Rare and exclusive video shows the horrific price paid by activists for challenging the rule of jihadist extremists in Syria

The price to be paid for challenging the rule of extremists

A revolution now 'consuming its own children'
Welcome to the world of Megagames

Welcome to the world of Megagames

300 players take part in Watch the Skies! board game in London
'Nymphomaniac' actress reveals what it was really like to star in one of the most explicit films ever

Charlotte Gainsbourg on 'Nymphomaniac'

Starring in one of the most explicit films ever
Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi: The Emirates' out-of-sight migrant workers helping to build the dream projects of its rulers

Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi

The Emirates' out-of-sight migrant workers helping to build the dream projects of its rulers
Vince Cable interview: Charging fees for employment tribunals was 'a very bad move'

Vince Cable exclusive interview

Charging fees for employment tribunals was 'a very bad move'
Iwan Rheon interview: Game of Thrones star returns to his Welsh roots to record debut album

Iwan Rheon is returning to his Welsh roots

Rheon is best known for his role as the Bastard of Bolton. It's gruelling playing a sadistic torturer, he tells Craig McLean, but it hasn't stopped him recording an album of Welsh psychedelia
Russell Brand's interview with Ed Miliband has got everyone talking about The Trews

Everyone is talking about The Trews

Russell Brand's 'true news' videos attract millions of viewers. But today's 'Milibrand' interview introduced his resolutely amateurish style to a whole new crowd
Morne Hardenberg interview: Cameraman for BBC's upcoming show Shark on filming the ocean's most dangerous predator

It's time for my close-up

Meet the man who films great whites for a living
Increasing numbers of homeless people in America keep their mobile phones on the streets

Homeless people keep mobile phones

A homeless person with a smartphone is a common sight in the US. And that's creating a network where the 'hobo' community can share information - and fight stigma - like never before
'Queer saint' Peter Watson left his mark on British culture by bankrolling artworld giants

'Queer saint' who bankrolled artworld giants

British culture owes a huge debt to Peter Watson, says Michael Prodger
Pushkin Prizes: Unusual exchange programme aims to bring countries together through culture

Pushkin Prizes brings countries together

Ten Scottish schoolchildren and their Russian peers attended a creative writing workshop in the Highlands this week
14 best kids' hoodies

14 best kids' hoodies

Don't get caught out by that wind on the beach. Zip them up in a lightweight top to see them through summer to autumn
Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi: The acceptable face of the Emirates

The acceptable face of the Emirates

Has Abu Dhabi found a way to blend petrodollars with principles, asks Robert Fisk