Grand National 2014 betting: Should I back a good jumper or risk a runner with a high fall ratio?

Last year's champion Neptune Collonges had a 25% 'failed to complete' record heading into the National

“You have to stand up to win”.

The final glaringly obvious racing phrase used about this race more than any other leaves me to look at just how important this statistic actually is? Yes they need to stand up to win (and with re mounting no longer aloud there is zero chance these days regardless of what happens to those in front of you), but just how good a jumper do you need to be to get involved in the finish?

Naturally, everyone would argue that the least falls, unseated rider, pulled up, and so on a horse has on his or her CV the better, but would you believe that is factually pretty much incorrect in recent years?

Last year’s victor had a “failed to complete” percentage of 25% plus which I found astounding (and may well explain the 66/1 starting price), but amazingly six of the last seven winners have failure rates of 11% or higher – do they need to fail in order to learn how to jump properly? How much use that stat actually is I am unclear on but if we take it at face value (and I need to cut the numbers down again), then we can rule out Quito De La Roque, Lion Na Bearnai, Prince De Beauchene, and Pineau De Re who are all far too safe if that stat is to be believed?

 

Ending with the going, all I can tell you is that nine of the last twelve winners (and all of the last five) have won at least once on the prevailing ground which is currently described as Good to Soft, which is what I am now working to! That fact removes a further five as it is taking us to a new list of the eight below (number of wins on the going in brackets), and IF history is repeated, the winner comes from one of that mini pack.

Wayward Prince (66/1) 3

Big Shu (25/1) 1

Burton Port (20/1) 1

Vintage Star (50/1) 1

Chance Du Roy (40/1) 2

Golan Way (100/1) 2

Twirling Magnet ((100/1) 2

Alvarado (40/1) 2

That leaves us with three remaining choices – pick your own horse and ignore the stats (and I don’t blame you at all for that), pick one or more from the eight horse short list, or take it one step further and remove those with just the one win on the ground to

Wayward Prince (66/1)

Chance Du Roy (40/1)

Golan Way (100/1)

Twirling Magnet ((100/1)

Alvarado (40/1)

and choose from them?  Whatever you decide, all I can now do is wish you all the very best whichever horse or horses you decide upon and remind you – these are statistics not facts or tips – just a fun way of trying to point us all in the right direction, win or lose!

How else might I pick a winner?

Sean has been narrowing down the field all week. You can see which horses are favoured by clicking the links below...

Should I back a previous front-runner?
What impact does the handicap have?
Should I factor in age and experience?
Should I bet on a two-and-a-half mile specialist?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
News
i100
Arts and Entertainment
Billie Piper as Brona in Penny Dreadful
tvReview: It’s business as usual in Victorian London. Let’s hope that changes as we get further into the new series spoiler alert
Life and Style
A nurse tends to a recovering patient on a general ward at The Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham
health
News
science
Arts and Entertainment
No Offence
tvReview: No Offence has characters who are larger than life and yet somehow completely true to life at the same time spoiler alert
News
Chuck Norris pictured in 1996
people
Arts and Entertainment
Sarah Lucas, I SCREAM DADDIO, Installation View, British Pavilion 2015
artWhy Sarah Lucas is the perfect choice to represent British art at the Venice Biennale
News
A voter placing a ballot paper in the box at a polling station
i100
News
people
Arts and Entertainment
The Queen (Kristin Scott Thomas) in The Audience
theatreReview: Stephen Daldry's direction is crisp in perfectly-timed revival
Sport
football
Caption competition
Caption competition
  • Get to the point
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant - Dublin

£13676.46 - £16411.61 per annum + OTE: SThree: SThree Trainee Recruitment Cons...

Ashdown Group: Marketing or Business Graduate Opportunity - Norwich - £22,000

£18000 - £22000 per annum + training: Ashdown Group: Business and Marketing Gr...

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant

£20000 - £25000 per annum + Commission: SThree: Are you great at building rela...

Ashdown Group: Database Analyst - Birmingham - £22,000 plus benefits

£20000 - £22000 per annum + excellent benefits: Ashdown Group: Application Sup...

Day In a Page

General Election 2015: Ed Miliband's unlikely journey from hapless geek to heart-throb

Miliband's unlikely journey from hapless geek to heart-throb

He was meant to be Labour's biggest handicap - but has become almost an asset
General Election 2015: A guide to the smaller parties, from the the National Health Action Party to the Church of the Militant Elvis Party

On the margins

From Militant Elvis to Women's Equality: a guide to the underdogs standing in the election
Amr Darrag: Ex-Muslim Brotherhood minister in exile still believes Egypt's military regime can be replaced with 'moderate' Islamic rule

'This is the battle of young Egypt for the future of our country'

Ex-Muslim Brotherhood minister Amr Darrag still believes the opposition can rid Egypt of its military regime and replace it with 'moderate' Islamic rule, he tells Robert Fisk
Why patients must rely less on doctors: Improving our own health is the 'blockbuster drug of the century'

Why patients must rely less on doctors

Improving our own health is the 'blockbuster drug of the century'
Sarah Lucas is the perfect artist to represent Britain at the Venice Biennale

Flesh in Venice

Sarah Lucas has filled the British pavilion at the Venice Biennale with slinky cats and casts of her female friends' private parts. It makes you proud to be a woman, says Karen Wright
11 best anti-ageing day creams

11 best anti-ageing day creams

Slow down the ageing process with one of these high-performance, hardworking anti-agers
Juventus 2 Real Madrid 1: Five things we learnt, including Iker Casillas is past it and Carlos Tevez remains effective

Juventus vs Real Madrid

Five things we learnt from the Italian's Champions League first leg win over the Spanish giants
Ashes 2015: Test series looks a lost cause for England... whoever takes over as ECB director of cricket

Ashes series looks a lost cause for England...

Whoever takes over as ECB director of cricket, says Stephen Brenkley
Fishing for votes with Nigel Farage: The Ukip leader shows how he can work an audience as he casts his line to the disaffected of Grimsby

Fishing is on Nigel Farage's mind

Ukip leader casts a line to the disaffected
Who is bombing whom in the Middle East? It's amazing they don't all hit each other

Who is bombing whom in the Middle East?

Robert Fisk untangles the countries and factions
China's influence on fashion: At the top of the game both creatively and commercially

China's influence on fashion

At the top of the game both creatively and commercially
Lord O’Donnell: Former cabinet secretary on the election and life away from the levers of power

The man known as GOD has a reputation for getting the job done

Lord O'Donnell's three principles of rule
Rainbow shades: It's all bright on the night

Rainbow shades

It's all bright on the night
'It was first time I had ever tasted chocolate. I kept a piece, and when Amsterdam was liberated, I gave it to the first Allied soldier I saw'

Bread from heaven

Dutch survivors thank RAF for World War II drop that saved millions
Britain will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power - Labour

How 'the Axe' helped Labour

UK will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power