Grand National 2014 betting: Should I back a good jumper or risk a runner with a high fall ratio?
Last year's champion Neptune Collonges had a 25% 'failed to complete' record heading into the National
Saturday 05 April 2014
“You have to stand up to win”.
The final glaringly obvious racing phrase used about this race more than any other leaves me to look at just how important this statistic actually is? Yes they need to stand up to win (and with re mounting no longer aloud there is zero chance these days regardless of what happens to those in front of you), but just how good a jumper do you need to be to get involved in the finish?
Naturally, everyone would argue that the least falls, unseated rider, pulled up, and so on a horse has on his or her CV the better, but would you believe that is factually pretty much incorrect in recent years?
Last year’s victor had a “failed to complete” percentage of 25% plus which I found astounding (and may well explain the 66/1 starting price), but amazingly six of the last seven winners have failure rates of 11% or higher – do they need to fail in order to learn how to jump properly? How much use that stat actually is I am unclear on but if we take it at face value (and I need to cut the numbers down again), then we can rule out Quito De La Roque, Lion Na Bearnai, Prince De Beauchene, and Pineau De Re who are all far too safe if that stat is to be believed?
Ending with the going, all I can tell you is that nine of the last twelve winners (and all of the last five) have won at least once on the prevailing ground which is currently described as Good to Soft, which is what I am now working to! That fact removes a further five as it is taking us to a new list of the eight below (number of wins on the going in brackets), and IF history is repeated, the winner comes from one of that mini pack.
Wayward Prince (66/1) 3
Big Shu (25/1) 1
Burton Port (20/1) 1
Vintage Star (50/1) 1
Chance Du Roy (40/1) 2
Golan Way (100/1) 2
Twirling Magnet ((100/1) 2
Alvarado (40/1) 2
That leaves us with three remaining choices – pick your own horse and ignore the stats (and I don’t blame you at all for that), pick one or more from the eight horse short list, or take it one step further and remove those with just the one win on the ground to
Wayward Prince (66/1)
Chance Du Roy (40/1)
Golan Way (100/1)
Twirling Magnet ((100/1)
and choose from them? Whatever you decide, all I can now do is wish you all the very best whichever horse or horses you decide upon and remind you – these are statistics not facts or tips – just a fun way of trying to point us all in the right direction, win or lose!
How else might I pick a winner?
Sean has been narrowing down the field all week. You can see which horses are favoured by clicking the links below...
Latest in Sport
Barbarians vs Samoa interrupted by sprinklers as fans criticise lack of Wi-Fi and poor seating at West Ham's Olympic Stadium
Arsenal transfer news: Arsene Wenger 'optimistic' of making signing, Grzegorz Krychowiak and Edinson Cavani linked
John Stones to Chelsea: Next season's bumper TV deal means clubs such as Everton can say 'no'
Chelsea 1 Crystal Palace 2 player ratings: Who was to blame for Chelsea's defeat? Did Pedro impress on his home debut? Sako and Ward star
Kevin De Bruyne: Why do Manchester City put such a high value on a player Chelsea rejected?
- 1 The difference between a migrant and refugee, in one sentence
- 2 Miley Cyrus calls out hypocrisy of women’s nipples being taboo
- 3 Celebrity Big Brother 2015: Tila Tequila kicked off show after 'describing Hitler as a good man'
- 4 Watch the Supermoon live: How to see the brightest Moon of the year tonight
- 5 iPhone 5c to be discontinued, no iPhone 6c to replace it
Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say
'Women only' train carriages: Jeremy Corbyn unveils radical move to tackle public harassment
Black holes are a passage to another universe, says Stephen Hawking
Iain Duncan Smith 'should resign over disability benefit death figures', says Jeremy Corbyn
Stock up on canned food for stock market crash, warns former Gordon Brown adviser
Labour leadership: Jeremy Corbyn voters most likely to believe 'world is controlled by a secretive elite'
£18000 - £30000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Sales Executive or Senior Sal...
£40000 - £55000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an exciting opportunity...
£22000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This industry leading company produces h...
£20000 - £40000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This IT provider for the educat...