Grand National betting 2014: Can Tidal Bay buck the historical trends and win at Aintree?

A 13-year-old has not won the race since 1923

The age trends are dead set against the high class Tidal Bay, who at 13-years-old also has to carry top weight yet is currently joint second favourite in the betting at 14/1.

The last time a 13-year-old won the big race was when Lenin was calling for the removal of Stalin in 1923, and the last horse to carry top weight to victory was Red Rum back in 1974.

However, the race has changed.

The fences have been made easier, leading to more high class horses entering, and of course the prize money is very tempting – this the purse is excess of £1m for the very first time thanks to new sponsors Crabbie’s, and I’ll drink to that!

Tidal Bay has held his form very well in his latter years – Paul Nicholls’ mount was third in the Welsh National and second in the Irish Gold Cup this season and won the Lexus Chase in 2012 – and has pocketed over £640,000 in an illustrious career.

A faller at the tenth in 2011 when 28/1, he’s actually been given a good chance by the handicapper despite having to shoulder 11st 10lb and there are plenty who fancy him to buck the trends this time around, including his jockey.

It should be remembered that not many classy 13-year-olds have run in the race and indeed only nine horses of that age or more have run in the big race in the last decade. In a very hot race the horse has a decent chance of creating history.

Henderson’s Woes

Top trainer Nicky Henderson has a terrible record in the Grand National – he’s saddled 15 horses since 1998 and not one of them has been placed. However, the record has to be broken some time and there are those who believe that the classiest horse in the race – 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run (14/1) – could be about to break that run. Henderson also has Triolo D’Alene (20/1), Burton Point (25/1), Shakalakaboomboom (33/1) and Hunt Ball (66/1). Triolo D’Alene is a horse I really like but at seven years old it should be said that the age trends (no winners from last 87 runners aged eight or younger in the last ten years) count against him. However, while Hunt Ball might not stay and the beautifully named Shakalakaboomboom may be past his best, Burton Point looks very well handicapped and ticks several boxes. I’d sooner take the 6/1 about any Henderson horse winning than back Long Run outright at 14s.

Interested in betting on the winning distance market? Click here for our analysis.

Suggested Topics
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Sport
Ashley Barnes of Burnley scores their second goal
footballMan City vs Burnley match report
News
news
News
Sir James Dyson: 'Students must be inspired to take up the challenge of engineering'
i100
Life and Style
Apple showed no sign of losing its talent for product launches with the new, slightly larger iPhone 6 making headlines
techSecurity breaches and overhyped start-ups dominated a year in which very little changed (save the size of your phone)
Arts and Entertainment
Catherine (Sarah Lancashire) in Happy Valley ((C) Red Productions/Ben Blackall)
TV
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Sales Negotiator - OTE £24,000

£22000 - £24000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An enthusiastic individual is r...

Recruitment Genius: Area Manager - West Midlands - OTE £35,000

£27000 - £30000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An Area Manager is required to ...

Recruitment Genius: Area Manager - Yorkshire & Humber - OTE £35,000

£27000 - £30000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An Area Manager is required to ...

Recruitment Genius: Embedded Linux Engineer - C / C++

£35000 - £45000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A well funded smart home compan...

Day In a Page

A timely reminder of the bloody anniversary we all forgot

A timely reminder of the bloody anniversary we all forgot

Who remembers that this week we enter the 150th anniversary year of the end of the American Civil War, asks Robert Fisk
Homeless Veterans appeal: Former soldiers pay their respects to a friend who also served

Homeless Veterans appeal

Former soldiers pay their respects to a friend who also served
Downfall of Dustin 'Screech' Diamond, the 'Saved By The Bell' star charged with bar stabbing

Scarred by the bell

The downfall of the TV star charged with bar stabbing
Why 2014 was a year of technological let-downs

Why 2014 was a year of technological let-downs

Security breaches and overhyped start-ups dominated a year in which very little changed (save the size of your phone)
Cuba's golf revolution: But will the revolutionary nation take 'bourgeois' game to its heart?

Will revolutionary Cuba take 'bourgeois' golf to its heart?

Fidel Castro ridiculed the game – but now investment in leisure resort projects is welcome
The Locked Room Mysteries: As a new collection of the genre’s best is published, its editor Otto Penzler explains the rules of engagement

The Locked Room Mysteries

As a new collection of the genre’s best is published, its editor explains the rules of engagement
Amy Adams on playing painter Margaret Keane in Tim Burton's Big Eyes

How I made myself Keane

Amy Adams hadn’t wanted to take the role of artist Margaret Keane, because she’d had enough of playing victims. But then she had a daughter, and saw the painter in a new light
Ed Richards: Parting view of Ofcom chief. . . we hate jokes on the disabled

Parting view of Ofcom chief... we hate jokes on the disabled

Bad language once got TV viewers irate, inciting calls to broadcasting switchboards. But now there is a worse offender, says retiring head of the media watchdog, Ed Richards
A look back at fashion in 2014: Wear in review

Wear in review

A look back at fashion in 2014
Ian Herbert: My 10 hopes for sport in 2015. Might just one of them happen?

Ian Herbert: My 10 hopes for sport in 2015

Might just one of them happen?
War with Isis: The West needs more than a White Knight

The West needs more than a White Knight

Despite billions spent on weapons, the US has not been able to counter Isis's gruesome tactics, says Patrick Cockburn
Return to Helmand: Private Davey Graham recalls the day he was shot by the Taliban

'The day I was shot by the Taliban'

Private Davey Graham was shot five times during an ambush in 2007 - it was the first, controversial photograph to show the dangers our soldiers faced in Helmand province
Revealed: the best and worst airlines for delays

Revealed: the best and worst airlines for delays

Many flyers are failing to claim compensation to which they are entitled, a new survey has found
The stories that defined 2014: From the Scottish independence referendum to the Ice Bucket Challenge, our writers voice their opinions

The stories that defined 2014

From the Scottish independence referendum to the Ice Bucket Challenge, our writers voice their opinions
Stoke-on-Trent becomes first British city to be classified as 'disaster resilient' by the United Nations

Disaster looming? Now you know where to head...

Which British city has become the first to be awarded special 'resilience' status by the UN?