Lush Lashes worth a flutter in Musidora

The winners of the trials already staged for the Juddmonte Oaks may have sown mere acorns; but whoever wins this one will already have the look of a fairly sturdy sapling. For the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes looks so much the strongest rehearsal that an emphatic winner would surely leave York this evening as hot favourite to follow up at Epsom on 6 June.

Dar Re Mi is already the focal point of British hopes; gossip in Ireland volunteers Moonstone as the best three-year-old filly at Ballydoyle; Cape Amber carries an unabashed endorsement from another outstanding Classic trainer; and Lush Lashes has better form in the book than the lot of them.

The thoroughbred, of course, is an incorrigibly equivocal creature, not least the thoroughbred filly. And perhaps it is too much to hope for some barnstorming, solo breakout today. Two years ago, for instance, Alexandrova was beaten at odds-on by Short Skirt, but it was she who showed a leg at Epsom. Either way, however, it would seem imperative at least to run very well today if ante-post vouchers are to retain any value over the next three weeks.

As always when so many key runners are unexposed, it is pointless being dogmatic about the outcome. At the same time, the best value in these situations tends to concern those with deeds to recommend them, rather than words. At the odds, Lush Lashes is probably the most sensible bet today simply because her main rivals demand a degree of blind faith. It remains perfectly possible that one of them will disclose more ability than Lush Lashes, who finished best when sixth in the 1,000 Guineas, but for now it can only be a guess. And not, in most cases, a terribly educated one.

In public, Dar Re Mi and Cape Amber have only won a maiden apiece; and even that is more than Moonstone has managed. Admittedly Dar Re Mi won hers by seven lengths, and she certainly has the right kind of family tree, as a daughter of two Group One winners in Singspiel and Darara (sensitively named, as such, by her musical owners). But it remains impossible to know what she beat at Sandown. The fact that Sir Michael Stoute is prepared to come here with Sovereign's Honour, fourth that day, might reflect positively on form; but perhaps this filly was just one among many in behind who promised more for another day.

As it happens, Sovereign's Honour was also behind Cape Amber when they began their careers at Newmarket last summer. Unfortunately she is only one of 16 fillies – out of 16 to try – who failed to win their next start. So backers of Cape Amber must rely on reputation as much as anything, whether of horse or trainer, and console themselves that she has an appropriate physique and pedigree.

To an extent, the same is also true of Moonstone. But the impressive performance of her stablemate, Sail, in the Cheshire Oaks last week means that genuine seniority at home would automatically qualify her as an Epsom filly. And it is also in her favour that Aidan O'Brien is once again coaxing improvement from his spring runners, race by race. Moonstone ran very well against colts on her debut, not given a hard time, and is the most tempting of the maiden graduates. But the suspicion persists that she could just lose out today, and still go on to prove best at Epsom, with the benefit of extra experience and, above all, extra distance.

For today the value surely rests in Lush Lashes, who never even bothered with a maiden. She made her debut in one of those grotesquely engorged sales races at the Curragh last autumn, the only newcomer in a field of 22, and won with her ears pricked. After disappointing in a bog on her reappearance, she was beaten barely two lengths in the Guineas, going nowhere approaching the Dip but really finding her stride on the climb to the post. As a daughter of Galileo, from the family of an Arc winner in Saumarez, she had every right to lack the speed of Classic milers but the extra distance here should help her set a tough standard for more glamorous rivals.

However O'Brien fares with Moonstone, US Ranger looks an attractive bet in the Duke Of York Hearthstead Homes Stakes. Lightly raced for the stable, having arrived from France last summer, he has hinted that he could become a leading player in the top sprints this season – far more so, certainly, than his odds-on defeat on his reappearance in heavy ground might suggest.

Juddmonte Oaks (1m 4f, Epsom, 6 June) Coral ante-post odds: 6-1 Moonstone, 7-1 Dar Re Mi & Katiyra, 10-1 Cape Amber, Kitty Matcham & Lush Lashes, 12-1 Gagnoa & Sail, 14-1 others