US Ranger to lead July Cup posse

Knowing when to forgive a horse, and when to forget one, is one of the critical nuances of betting. And there is no mistaking the sense that US Ranger has reached just such a crossroads in the Darley July Cup at Newmarket this afternoon.

To many, his performance when fifth in the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last month will be the last straw. In a race that disclosed a curious draw advantage, attributed by some to greasiness in the centre of the track, the first five horses were also the five horses drawn nearest the stands' rail. But US Ranger squandered his advantage in stall five by dozing at the break, and then taking far too long to regroup, never nearer than at the line. He was beaten over five lengths behind Kingsgate Native, but there remains no doubt that he has the ability to finish a lot closer to the same horse today.

After all, in his previous start at York he had conclusively demonstrated that he belonged, at the very least, in the same vicinity as War Artist, the Ascot runner-up. The suspicion persists that US Ranger has been holding something back, sometimes carrying his head awkwardly, but it may well prove that firm ground inhibited him both at Ascot and York. He is a bull of a horse, and has offered sufficient glimpses of unusual class to merit one last chance in these easier conditions.

US Ranger (3.10) has still made only five starts for Aidan O'Brien, and is one of the few in the race – in the absence of an experimenting miler, such as Raven's Pass – who retains latent potential. He certainly looked to be thriving physically at Ascot, and it may well prove that he is again drawn in the right place today, low numbers having recently struggled in this race.

Utmost Respect starts nearby, and is lightly raced for the excellent Richard Fahey. He confirmed himself one of the most progressive young sprinters around with a first Group success at Newcastle last time, idling in front, while renewed rain would also work in his favour. Marchand d'Or and Kingsgate Native meanwhile command obvious respect, but the bookmakers are perfectly alive to that, too.

Mastership (2.35) and Midnight Muse (1.30) can plunder valuable handicap prizes for the north, while Fahey also has an interesting candidate for the Weatherbys Superlative Stakes in Deadly Secret. His debut success suggested that a seventh furlong would suit, but Weald Park (2.0) looked a smart juvenile over course and distance last time.

Grand Ducal may yet prove something of a marker for his stable, which does not seem to have quite as many precocious juveniles as in some previous years. With so many of his horses nowadays likely to stay, O'Brien may prove a still more formidable force in juvenile races later in the season. Either way, the other big stables are hardly making hay, and the talented young Lambourn trainer, Tom Dascombe, filled the breach yesterday by saddling Classic Blade to win the TNT July Stakes in a photo from Sayif – a first Group success not only for Dascombe but also for Richard Kingscote, whose opportunist ride from the front left Sayif's finish just one stride too short. Having found this muscular colt for just €19,000 (£15,000) at Fairyhouse, Dascombe will now proceed to the associated sales race at the Curragh next month.

Lucarno also made all to win the other Group race on the card, the Princess of Wales's WBX Stakes, though Jimmy Fortune was presumably searched for chloroform on his return to the scales, his five rivals having proved very docile in granting him an easy lead.

Fortune's mount had flown by the time Papal Bull found his stride, and so secured his first success since the St Leger. The first two may meet again in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot a fortnight tomorrow.

John Gosden, his trainer, emphasised that he had been taking a long view with Lucarno. "The St Leger was a bit beyond his trip and just flattened him," he said. "He did himself very well over the winter and is just finding his way back now. That was a good effort with a penalty, but we always planned to go for races later in the year and you can't be banging away all season long with these horses. So I would say he's going to improve a bit for that."

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