Six Nations 2014: How can England, Ireland and France win the title?

A complete guide to the final round of the Six Nations

The Six Nations enters its dramatic final round this weekend, with three teams potentially in the running for the title, but who needs what to take home the trophy and where will the other sides finish?

Possible champions

England – The simplest way for England to claim the title is for them to beat Italy in Rome and then hope that France beat Ireland in Paris. England will win the Six Nations provided France do not beat Ireland by 31 points more than their own margin of victory over Italy.

Ireland – Any win for Ireland in Paris will surely hand them the title, thanks to their points difference of 81. However Ireland could theoretically still not win the title if England can thrash Italy and make up their current 49-point deficit. If their margin of victory is 51 points greater than Ireland’s over France, then England will still win.

France – The only realistic way for France to win the title is if they beat Ireland in Paris and then hope that Italy can overcome England in Rome. Should England win against Italy (and they have never lost to them in rugby history) then France will have to make up a 29-point gap between the sides, meaning they must beat Ireland by 31 points more than England’s margin of victory in Rome.

Team-by-team final position guide

England

1st: If they beat Italy and France beat Ireland (by no more than 31 points more than England’s win) or if they beat Italy by 51 points more than Ireland beat France.

2nd: If Ireland beat France and they fail to beat Italy by 51 points more than Ireland’s margin of victory or if England and France lose (provided France don’t overturn a difference of 29 points)

3rd: If England lose to Italy and France beat Ireland (provided Ireland don’t lose by 51 points more than England did in Rome)  

4th: The same results needed for third but with Wales also making up a difference of 37 points in victory over Scotland.

Ireland

1st: If Ireland beat France and England do not make up a difference of 49 points in beating Italy or if they win and Italy beat England.

2nd: If Ireland lose to France and Italy beat England (provided that Ireland don’t let a 51-point gap slip) or if Ireland beat France but England beat Italy by 51 points more than their margin of victory.

3rd: If Ireland lose to France and England beat Italy or if they lose to France and Italy beat England (with Ireland letting a 51-point gap slide)

4th: The same results for third but with Wales making up a difference of 86 points in victory over Scotland.

 

France

1st: If France beat Ireland by 29 points more than England beat Italy or if France beat Ireland and England lose to Italy.

2nd: If France beat Ireland but without a margin of 29 points more than England’s win over Italy or if they lose but so do England (and by 29 points more than France)  

3rd: If France lose and England beat Italy or if they lose and England lose to Italy but without letting their 28-point gap slip

4th: The same results for third but with Wales making up a difference of 8 points in victory over Scotland.

Wales

2nd: England have to lose to Italy and Wales must beat Scotland with the following conditions – if France lose to Ireland then Wales must overturn a 37-point gap when beating Scotland. If Ireland lose to France, Wales must overturn a 86-point gap.

3rd: If England beat Italy and if France lose to Ireland then Wales must beat Scotland and overturn a difference of eight points. They can also take third if Ireland lose to France and they overturn a difference of 86 points or if England lose to Italy and France lose to Ireland, but they fail to overturn a 37-point deficit,

4th: Provided Wales do not lose to Scotland by more than 38 points they will come at least fourth.

5th: If Wales lose to Scotland by 38 points or more they will be fifth.

Scotland

4th: If they beat Wales by more than 38 points

5th: If they beat Wales but not by more than 38 points or if they lose to Wales and Italy fail to beat England. Alternatively either of the above but if Italy beat England without overturning a 25-point gap with Scotland.

6th: If they lose to Wales and Italy beat England (overturning a 25-point gap with Scotland in the process)

Italy

5th: Scotland must lose tow Wales and they must beat England, overturning a 25-point gap with Scotland in the process.

6th: Unless the above results happen, Italy will be sixth whatever the result of their match.

If teams are level on points and points difference, then the title goes to the team who scored the most tries during the Championship.

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