Where do England go from here?

It is all there in black and white, if you can find it amid the shades of darkest grey. Under the terms of the 150-page agreement between the Rugby Football Union and the Premiership clubs signed a little over a year ago – a document of Dayton-like complexity, with a touch of half-baked Balfourism thrown in – Martin Johnson, the England manager, will be restricted to five form-driven changes when he names his squad for the forthcoming Six Nations Championship on Wednesday.

Not five changes from the squad that completed the autumn internationals, you understand, but from the original 32-man version named way back in mid-summer, on the first day of last July.

An awful lot has happened since then, almost all of it bad, and as a result, seasoned England-watchers might feel five changes to be a touch shy of the optimum number. How about 15 changes, instead? Or 20? Or 30? After all, only two individuals emerged from the November programme with their reputations enhanced: the London Irish full-back Delon Armitage, fast-tracked into the team from a position outside the "best" 64 players in the country because of Mathew Tait's fitness issues, and the Wasps flanker Tom Rees, whose reward for some brave and resourceful performances in adversity was demotion to the bench for the meeting with the All Blacks. Weird.

Can Johnson conceivably make sense of the Six Nations while operating with one hairy great fist tied behind his back? Tom Walkinshaw of Gloucester, the clubs' chief negotiator, heralded the agreement by stating that the time for "band-aid solutions" had passed. It was a good line, and an accurate one, too, but having done away with the sticking plaster approach to problem-solving, are the game's custodians now asking England's selector-in-chief to stick with players who are fast outstaying their welcome at Test level?

In theory, yes. In practice, the manager has more room to manoeuvre than might have been the case, thanks to injury and, in the case of Josh Lewsey, retirement. Of course, Johnson did not want to lose a player as good as Rees for the entire tournament – the open-side specialist mangled his knee ligaments last weekend and will not play again for at least two months – any more than he wanted to see Jonny Wilkinson, a medical dictionary in human form, horizontalised for the umpteenth time four weeks into the season. But the current casualty list at least spares Johnson some awkward decisions.

For instance, Rees's misfortune allows Johnson to retain the services of both Michael Lipman, the Bath captain, and Lewis Moody, the gung-ho Leicester flanker who, when on his game, brings to the England side the energy and aggression they so sorely lacked before Christmas. Similarly, Wilkinson's continuing exploration of the furthest reaches of injury frustration means Danny Cipriani can stay involved without ramifications elsewhere. (It is easy to forget that "Celebriani" was promoted from the second-string Saxons squad after proving his fitness in October, effectively taking Wilkinson's place).

Circumstances being as they are, Johnson can retain the services of three of the five players he promoted during the autumn – Armitage, Cipriani and Lipman – while steering clear of any "Dear John" duties.

He will also get away with naming the Harlequins wing Ugo Monye ahead of Tom Varndell of Leicester, who was dropped from the squad before the opening November Test with the Pacific Islands despite being fully fit. (This drove a coach and horses through the agreement, but no one was of a mind to make a stand on behalf of a player so spectacularly out of form as poor Varndell).

Nick Easter, the No 8, presents more of a problem. Drafted from the Saxons because Luke Narraway, the incumbent from Gloucester, was struggling for fitness, the 2007 World Cup forward was far from the worst of England's performers as the defeats came thick and fast. But Narraway is now fit again and turning in some half-decent stuff for the West Countrymen. With Jordan Crane of Leicester also in the senior squad, something – or rather, someone – has to give. Easily the best footballer of the three, Narraway is also the most exposed.

Unfortunately for Johnson, the most acute problems arise where there are too few high-calibre players rather than too many: that is to say, in the tight five of the scrum.

The three strongest red-rose sides of the modern era – Bill Beaumont's Grand Slam vintage of 1980, Will Carling's ultra-successful team of the early 1990s and Johnson's own World Cup-winning outfit of 2003 – were all constructed on the foundations of set-piece, close-quarter dominance. Beaumont had Fran Cotton, Peter Wheeler, Phil Blakeway and Maurice Colclough around him; Carling could rely on Jason Leonard, Brian Moore, Jeff Probyn, Paul Ackford and Wade Dooley to provide the oxygen of possession in the rarefied air of Test rugby; in 2003, the England squad who flew to Sydney were so fearsomely equipped at the sharp end, they felt able to leave forwards as good as Graham Rowntree and Simon Shaw at home.

How times have changed. Of the 11 tight forwards selected by Johnson a little over six months ago, only Phil Vickery – a veteran tight-head prop held together by glue and prayer – and the rookie London Irish line-out specialist Nick Kennedy can be truly happy with life, although Steve Borthwick, the England captain, has been his usual consistent self at club level. The rest, old and young, have been no better than so-so, but with the Saxons' tight-five resources as thin as they are, so-so is plenty good enough.

Johnson could think outside the box here. There are some hot young props making their way up the ladder a rung at a time, most notably the brilliant London Irish prospect Alex Corbisiero, who can play on either side of the scrum and has what coaches like to call an "80-minute engine". But it is one thing to play the bold card when blessed with a free hand, and quite another to play it with hands tied together by red tape.

Ultimately, the manager's problems stem from the fine detail of an agreement that effectively requires him to select a squad months in advance of the principal business of the season.

Certain senior members of the Rugby Football Union felt they had negotiated the best of the deal for themselves and the England team, quietly pointing out that the £110m in new money they were coughing up for eight years of improved access to international players was not inflation-linked.

That assertion is suddenly open to question, for no one – least of all the Sir Bufton-Tuftons down Twickenham way – quite knows what will happen to inflation in this age of credit crunches, banking failures and market implosions.

It is the clubs who now look smart, for it is they who can plan for a long campaign with a degree of certainty on the personnel front. Johnson, meanwhile, might have spotted a dozen potential world-beaters since the start of the season, but must wait until July before he can pick more than a few of them.

The players looking to force their way into the reckoning

On current form, the Gloucester full-back Olly Morgan should follow Delon Armitage into the senior party without bothering with the Saxons, but if Martin Johnson is keen to recall the Sale wing Mark Cueto to the squad – and Cueto is scoring tries again after an unproductive 12 months or so – he might have to settle for a second-string place.

Assuming Johnson sticks with James Simpson-Daniel, who is close to fitness after missing the autumn games, there is an argument for shifting Mathew Tait back to his optimum position of outside-centre ahead of either Jamie Noon or Dan Hipkiss. Mike Tindall is also playing well at No 13, but is the 2003 World Cup-winner really a contender for 2011?

Jordan Turner-Hall, the 21-year-old Harlequins inside-centre, has been the talk of the town in south-west London for months, but he does not have the kicking talents of Olly Barkley or Shane Geraghty, both of whom are currently in the elite squad. Do England want a non-kicking No 12? Let's put it another way: do England have the faintest idea what they want from anyone in their midfield?

Peter Richards' injury problems open the door for Ben Foden (left) of Northampton, whose recent performances at scrum-half have propelled him into rave-review territory. The same can be said of Chris Robshaw, the Harlequins blind-side flanker who was understandably miffed at missing out on both the senior and second-string squads last summer. Unfortunately for Robshaw, there is far more congestion in the back row than at half-back.

Tom Palmer's disintegrating shoulder has left England with precious few options at lock. Johnson will be tempted to return to his World Cup-winning partner Ben Kay, but Chris Jones (left) of Sale offers far more, for far longer, around the field and should be looked at anew. Which leaves us with the front row. Hookers are so thin on the ground, George Chuter may well stay in situ, despite his inability to get a start for Leicester. As for the props, the less said the better. The up-and-coming Alex Corbisiero of London Irish should be involved, but not at the expense of Phil Vickery. The former captain may be ancient, but he is playing better than anyone.

A new team for a new Six Nations

If England were playing their first Six Nations game today, this would be Chris Hewett's side

15 Delon Armitage (London Irish): The big winner from the autumn internationals, he is blessed with the can-do spirit

14 Paul Sackey (Wasps): Went backwards in November, figuratively as well as physically, but still just about in credit

13 Mathew Tait (Sale): The best attacking outside-centre around, as opposed to the biggest. Let's be bold for once

12 Toby Flood (Leicester): See above, reading "inside" for "outside". Closest thing England have to another Will Greenwood

11 Mark Cueto (Sale): A born finisher, born again. A busier wing than Ugo Monye, and more experienced, too

10 Danny Cipriani (Wasps): The Marquis of Mayfair is not doing himself any favours, but he's quite a talent

9 Harry Ellis (Leicester): More of a facilitator than Danny Care, who is in danger of overcooking his running game

1 Andrew Sheridan (Sale): One killer performance a season is not enough, but he's still ahead of the rest

2 Dylan Hartley (Northampton): At some point, England will have to play him and stick with him. Why not now?

3 Phil Vickery (Wasps): He should be dead and gone in international terms, but the pack needs its beating heart

4 Simon Shaw (Wasps): The maul may be yesterday's news, but ball-carrying remains crucial. Shaw carries better than most

5 Steve Borthwick (Saracens, capt): Not everyone's cup of tea, but a top operator with genuinely big men around him

6 Tom Croft (Leicester): More athletic and a better line-out option than his rival James Haskell. A game-breaker

7 Lewis Moody (Leicester): If he stays fit and disciplined – a big "if" – England may survive Tom Rees's absence

8 Luke Narraway (Gloucester): Nick Easter and Jordan Crane are more heavy-duty, but someone has to play some football