Jonathan Davies: Beware the Welsh swagger

Close, very, very close. That's what I expect this championship to be, and peering down the countries, I find it hard to pick a winner from four. And even my two discards - yes, Scotland and Italy - have a louder squeak than you would usually ascribe to the outsiders.

There will be the odd shock; I am fairly confident of that. Just as I am that the thrills will comfortably outnumber the spills. If I have to raise my head above the parapet, though, I will agree with the bookmakers and go with Ireland. Just.

Ireland

I fancy them to prevail on two counts: 1 autumn international form; 2 playing England and France at home. I am also a great believer in confidence and momentum, and they were so impressive in sweeping aside Australia and South Africa in November that everything seems stacked in their favour.

The back five of their pack are immense, and put them in front of a back line who are the most settled and dangerous in the tournament and their chance is obvious. Saying that, Leicester showed against Munster last week that the way to get at them is through the front row. Wales will need no reminding of it next Sunday, and Cardiff could see their Grand Slam dream die early.

France

Quite simply, they have to succeed. Their public demands it with the World Cup coming to town in September, especially after Les Bleus' ghastly autumn. As usual they have all the tools in the forwards, and behind them the return to form of Yannick Jauzion is critical; alongside fellow Toulousain Florian Fritz he forms a dynamic centre pairing.

But it is inside at No 10 where Bernard Laporte's problems lie. With Frédéric Michalak injured, the French coach must decide whether to keep playing Damien Traille out of position or go for the more solid option of say, Stade's David Skrela. Dublin is no place to be doubting your playmaker and neither, for that matter, is Twickenham.

England

Not all doom and gloom, not by any means. A new coach, a new captain and seemingly a new direction. Yes, they were awful in the autumn, but that was just down to basic mistakes and a lack of confidence.

Now Joe Worsley is playing well, as is Martin Corry, and I have a hunch that leadership will bring out the best in Phil Vickery. Behind, a threequarter line featuring Andy Farrell and, who knows, even Jonny Wilkinson, might add the cut, thrust and creation so plainly absent recently. You would hope any side coached by Brian Ashton will not be one-dimensional. They have an ideal start in Scotland and Italy at home, and from here they could rediscover their swagger. Do not write them off.

Wales

There's a bit of a fitness crisis in my homeland, just when everything was looking so rosy. With wings falling like ninepins, Gareth Jenkins is considering switching Kevin Morgan from full-back and putting Gavin Henson in there.

To my mind, this would be a mistake, as Jenkins would be weakening two positions. There are some capable flyers who can fill in and Jenkins should not be afraid to leave out Henson as he gives James Hook the start he deserves at No 12. Then, with the outstanding half-back pairing of Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones, Wales's hopes may again come down to securing parity in the forward battles. There is no reason why they can't, and the showdown with Ireland first up reminds me of that one against England in the 2005 Grand Slam. Just maybe.

Scotland

Frank Hadden has found a way of playing that Scotland are comfortable with, and if they can at last inject some pace into a game lit up by their rucking expertise then last year's heroics could well be repeated. Nikki Walker should add a bit of toe, Chris Paterson and Sean Lamont are no slouches, and then they only need to overcome their curse of playing well for 65 minutes before fading away.

Italy

Individually, so impressive; collectively alas, not. They have talent at their disposal in the likes of the prop Martin Castrogiovanni, lock Marco Bortolami, No 8 Sergio Parisse, the ever-adaptable Bergamasco brothers and the centre Andrea Masi.

But, like Scotland, they usually threaten for so long before timidly retreating. They also need an outside-half - they have yet to find a successor to Diego Dominguez. They will click at least once, though.

The Omen: Is Europe a World Cup form guide?

1987 YES: While Wales and England, literally, fought among themselves, France, who were captained by Daniel Dubroca, swept to the Grand Slam. At the World Cup the French prevailed in one of the great semi-finals, against Australia, and then lost the final to New Zealand; Wales finished third after a turgid quarter-final win over England.

1991 YES: Chastened by Murrayfield defeat the year before, Will Carling's England and their mighty forwards took the Grand Slam in a winner-takes-all decider against the flamboyant French. At the World Cup England won away to Scotland and France but changed tactics and fell to Australia in the Twickenham final. Five Nations wooden spoonists Wales failed to qualify from their World Cup pool, beaten by Western Samoa.

1995 YES: Another England Grand Slam in the Five Nations, which also featured Scotland's first win in France for 26 years and a whitewash for Wales. Off they all went to the World Cup in South Africa, where Jonah Lomu and New Zealand muscled out Scotland in the quarter-finals and England in the semis. France, with a late Emile Ntamack try, beat the Scots in the pool before losing to South Africa in the last four. Wales? Out at the pool stage again.

1999 YES AND NO: Wales, revitalised under Graham Henry, hosted the World Cup but lost in the quarter-finals to Australia, who won the final against France. In a try-happy, topsy-turvy Five Nations, the Welsh beat England at Wembley, letting in Scotland as surprise champions. The French had a madcap approach, which cost them home defeats by Wales and Scotland; at the World Cup it won them a famous semi-final against the All Blacks, while England went out tamely to South Africa.

2003 YES: For the third World Cup year, England won a Grand Slam. This time Martin Johnson's team landed the global bauble too. Whitewashed Wales finished below Italy in the Six Nations, but beat them at the World Cup, where, freed from their shackles, they gave both New Zealand and England a fright. The French began the year losing at Twickenham and finished it well beaten by Jonny Wilkinson's boot in Sydney.

Hugh Godwin

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