Lion hunt: Why the underachieving English might miss out on the South African tour

The chase for places on next summer's tour to South Africa is hotting up and the underachieving English are in danger of being left behind, writes Chris Hewett

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The last time Ian McGeechan led the British and Irish Lions on a trek through Springbok country 11 years ago, more than half his pride – 19 out of 36 – were Englishmen, and another three were summoned south before business was concluded. It was simply the way of things back then – England had provided more than 50 per cent of the tour party to New Zealand in 1993 – and the trend would continue against the Wallabies in 2003 and the All Blacks in 2005. The Hooray Henrys, as the Celts love to label them, have had plenty to cheer since the end of the Welsh hegemony in the early 1980s.

When McGeechan, perhaps the greatest of all contributors to Lions lore with his two tours as a player and umpteen as a coach, returns to South Africa next May, the numbers may add up to something very different. As Gerald Davies, manager of the 2009 party, puts his finishing touches to the network of selectorial advisers who will start reviewing contenders when the Heineken Cup begins in 12 days' time, there is clear potential for a sharp fall in the English vote.

Wales and Ireland, in particular, are resurgent: the former completed a Six Nations Grand Slam last season for the second time in four attempts and can realistically push for their biggest representation since the golden days of the 1970s, while the latter recently gave the All Blacks a serious contest in Wellington, which was far more than a supposedly strong England side managed on the following two weekends. And while Scotland will probably come fourth of four in terms of plane seats, as they have always done in the professional era, their best players – the scrum-half Mike Blair, the flanker Jason White, the goal-kicking back Chris Paterson – promise to make life difficult for English rivals.

Both McGeechan and Davies are on record as saying that the tour party will be cut from Sir Clive Woodward's 45-man Leviathan of 2005 to a slimmer, fitter, more feline squad – if any squad containing Andrew Sheridan can be so described – of 35 or 36. In essence, it means two players for each position plus a third scrum-half, a third hooker, a seventh midfielder and a little extra muscle up front. It also means a fearful scrap for places over the forthcoming autumn internationals and the 2009 Six Nations.

"It will certainly be exceptionally competitive," said the former England coach Andy Robinson, who knows a thing or two about the Lions, having toured as a player in 1989 and then prepared the Test pack in Australia in 2001 and again in New Zealand four years later. "There is a tremendous amount of rugby, big rugby, to be played before the serious selecting starts, but there are some early indicators that could have a bearing. If we're talking about England's situation, the first thing that strikes me is that the elite squad named by Martin Johnson back in the summer contains a lot of very young players: the Danny Ciprianis, the Mathew Taits, the Danny Cares, the Tom Varndells, the Dylan Hartleys. When they challenge for Lions places, how will they be judged against, say, the Welsh, who are generally more mature in both age and experience?

"I'd also say this: the Magners League is beginning to find its feet and set out its stall as a tournament worthy of serious consideration. Outside of the internationals, the Heineken Cup will carry the greatest evidential weight when it comes to choosing 35 or 36 players from something in the region of 100 candidates. But the Magners League is a very different animal to the old model, which was undermined by a few teams refusing to field the strongest sides. We're seeing a lot of good rugby being played, a lot of good tries being scored. I think due notice will be taken of who is doing what in the competition."

Now in his second season as head coach of Edinburgh, the West Countryman toured with the Scotland team on their successful trip to Argentina in the summer and will act as a selector this season. The Scots have been sliding into Lions oblivion for more than a decade now: five were selected in 1997, four in 2001 and three in 2005, even though it seemed harder to miss out on Woodward's party than find a way into it. Does Robinson believe redemption is at hand?

"Scots generally travel well," he said. "The exception, I suppose, was in 1993, when quite a few of them were selected for the Lions tour of New Zealand and didn't really turn up. Certain people who had grown accustomed to being picked at the top level suddenly found themselves in the second team, and they struggled to cope with it. I think the current Scotland set-up has a number of players capable of making the right kind of contribution in a Lions environment. Lions touring is unique, and it places unusual demands on a man's character and spirit. I really won't be surprised if Ian McGeechan picks two or three players who don't feature heavily in the Six Nations, on the grounds that they can perform a specific role in the team-building process."

England are in such a state of flux that it is impossible to identify more than a small handful of Lions

certainties among them. Paul Sackey, the Wasps wing, is in a strong position, as is his club colleague Danny Cipriani, provided his recovery from major ankle surgery is as complete as it has been rapid. Likewise, no one seriously doubts that two props, Sheridan of Sale and Matt Stevens of Bath, will make the cut, while the Wasps flankers James Haskell and Tom Rees, are even-money bets at worst. Beyond this, though, nothing is nailed on.

Back in '97, one of the few England first-choicers ignored by McGeechan was the captain, Phil de Glanville. Steve Borthwick, the current skipper, will have to play exceptionally well over the next eight months if he is to avoid a similar fate. The competition for what may well be only four second-row berths is ridiculously intense: Ireland's Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callag-han have played Test rugby with the Lions; Alun Wyn Jones may be the best lock produced by Wales since Robert Norster; Nathan Hines frequently fights a one-man battle for Scotland; Simon Shaw and Tom Palmer will put pressure on with England.

If things fall apart between the autumn and the end of the Six Nations in mid-March, England could easily find themselves at their lowest ebb since 1989, when 10 of Geoff Cooke's team were selected to tour Australia under Finlay Calder, the Scotland flanker. Johnson, the new England manager and the only man to have led the Lions twice, knows this to be true. "I've asked the squad what they want to take from the season, and a lot of them identified going to South Africa with the Lions, as they should," he said. "It looks like being an open race in selection, so the more successful we are with England, the better chance they'll stand."

Worryingly for those Twickenham grandees who have spent the best part of two decades revelling in England's domination of Lions matters, the forthcoming fixture list is not exactly designed to ease the passage. The Tri-Nations powers play in London on consecutive November weekends, after which there are visits to Cardiff and Dublin. Those last two matches could well be decisive for anything up to a dozen white-shirted hopefuls.

Meanwhile, the Welsh are sitting pretty, waiting to resurrect themselves as the first among Lions equals. Between the trip to New Zealand and Australia in 1950 and the visit to South Africa 30 years later, Wales had the biggest contingent on nine tours. Are they about to take over again? Well, the Lions do play in red.

If the squad left tomorrow...The front-runners, position by position

Full-Backs

1 Lee Byrne (Wales)

2 Rob Kearney (Ireland)

Mathew Tait's versatility might get him the trip, but England's indecision over his best role could cost him.

Right wings

1 Paul Sackey (England)

2 Mark Jones (Wales)

Sackey is the one England threequarter in the "stone-cold certain" bracket. Chris Paterson's goal-kicking could see the Scot challenge.

Left wings

1 Shane Williams (Wales)

2 Jamie Roberts (Wales)

A highly competitive position, with Sean Lamont of Scotland also ahead of the English contenders at this stage.

Outside centres

1 Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland)

2 Tom Shanklin (Wales)

If O'Driscoll's natural successor, Luke Fitzgerald, is as good as the Irish say, places here will be at a premium.

Inside centres

1 Gavin Henson (Wales)

2 Toby Flood (England)

An awkward one for the selectors to get right, especially as Flood may find himself messed around positionally by England.

Outside-halves

1 James Hook (Wales)

2 Danny Cipriani (England)

Wot, no Jonny? Wilkinson might make it as an extra midfielder, but Ronan O'Gara and Stephen Jones could complicate matters.

Scrum-halves

1 Mike Blair (Scotland)

2 Mike Phillips (Wales)

England have some top-notch No 9s – Harry Ellis, Danny Care – but the competition here is as hot as a furnace.

Loose-head props

1 Andrew Sheridan (England)

2 Gethin Jenkins (Wales)

Sheridan is one of rugby's great ogres, but he has his conciliatory spells. Still, there is no one to touch him.

Hookers

1 Jerry Flannery (Ireland)

2 Ross Ford (Scotland)

This may change when Dylan Hartley of England and Richard Hibbard of Wales get a chance to make their presence felt.

Tight-head props

1 Matt Stevens (England)

2 Adam Jones (Wales)

A fifth prop should travel, so Stevens' ability to scrummage on both sides may mean a last hurrah from Phil Vickery.

Front-jumping locks

1 Alun Wyn Jones (Wales)

2 Donncha O'Callaghan (Ireland)

Simon Shaw deserves some good fortune with the Lions, but the English veteran faces the fight of his life.

Middle-jumping locks

1 Paul O'Connell (Ireland)

2 Steve Borthwick (England)

Places for specialist second-rows will be few and far between. Tom Palmer, Nathan Hines and sundry Welshmen could threaten Borthwick.

Blind-side flankers

1 James Haskell (England)

2 Jason White (Scotland)

Denis Leamy of Ireland will stake a claim, but if all goes to form, this is among the more clear-cut issues.

Open-side flankers

1 David Wallace (Ireland)

2 Tom Rees (England)

With Martyn Williams still in his pomp for Wales, nothing can be taken for granted by any of the breakaway contenders.

No 8s

1 Ryan Jones (Wales)

2 Simon Taylor (Scotland)

Luke Narraway is catching the eye at Gloucester, but with Jones favoured for the captaincy, the level of opposition is intimidating.