A fair wind for President Kinnock

A politician who once backed British withdrawal from the Common Market is emerging as favourite to be Europe's next leader, says Nyta Mann

It looks increasingly likely that Tony Blair will end up negotiating Britain's position within the European Union. But another Labour figure would also like to do his bit to put the nation at the heart of Europe: President Neil Kinnock. The former Labour leader is quietly working on becoming President of the European Commission.

The reign of the current title-holder, Jacques Santer, ends in 1999 and the talk in Brussels is of the former Labour leader rising to the top job. "He'd be an excellent president of the commission," declares Wayne David, leader of the Labour group in the European Parliament. "If you were drawing up a list of the strongest candidates, Kinnock is in the top three," adds Glynn Ford MEP. The speculation in Kinnock's favour crosses party boundaries, too. "There's a strong possibility he could get the presidency," agrees James Provan, a Tory MEP. "It's early days yet, but I'd put him among the top probable contenders."

Kinnock would certainly like the job. "There's no way Neil could be a commissioner without wanting to become the President. It's the way he is," according to one of his friends. But why do others favour him?

Theoretically Santer could stay on after 1999. But the general view in Brussels is that he is a strictly one-term president: insufficiently dynamic, a bureaucrat rather than an instigator, a compromise candidate in the first place. Europe will soon embark on a single currency, further enlargement and increased integration. A more political, hands-on president is required.

The president is nominated by member-state governments after consultations with the European Parliament, which has an effective veto. MEPs would prefer an insider with experience of working in the EU's institutions, which Santer does not have. Then there is the nationality hurdle: the larger member states - the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain - will want a president from among themselves, but the other four would further prefer a non-German. It is too soon after Jacques Delors for another French president. Finally, because MEPs must agree the choice, Europe's next leader will probably come from one of the two biggest blocs in the parliament - the Party of European Socialists (read Labour here) and Christian Democrats (our Conservatives).

Kinnock's CV is practically tailor-made. Sir Leon Brittan, the UK's more senior commissioner, could cite a prior claim, but the attitude of John Major's government towards Europe disqualifies him. Of the Socialists, the other names that crop up in informed speculation, Karel Van Miert, the Belgian competition commissioner, Erkki Liikanen, budget commissioner, Germany's Monika Wulf-Mathies and Edith Cresson of France are all politically handicapped either at home or within the community. The Christian Democrats lack a credible contender within the commission.

Felipe Gonzales, the Socialist Spanish former prime minister, has dropped heavy hints he wanted the job in the past and is highly regarded in Europe. But by 1999 he might have been re-elected prime minister of Spain. Karl Bildt, the man who introduced Thatcherism to Sweden, is fancied as an alternative Christian Democrat candidate. But like Gonzales, he is an outsider in EU terms.

Kinnock is gregarious and well-liked in Brussels. Commissioners, MEPs and officials alike see him as one of the best speakers and an effective, highly active commissioner. Nine years as Labour leader made him a friendly figure to left-of-centre parties across Europe.

Mere mention, however, of Neil Kinnock, a two-time loser with the British electorate, heading the Euro-show induces apoplexy in Tory Euro-sceptics. "Good Lord!" exclaims John Whittingdale, Colchester MP, a former PPS to Margaret Thatcher and a member of the No Turning Back Group, "Having failed utterly to convince the British people that he should be Prime Minister, it would be highly inappropriate for him to become President of the European Commission."

Other Conservatives dismiss the idea. "It's no more than bar-room talk," insists Thomas Spencer, leader of the Tory group in the European Parliament. "Though even if I was completely pissed out of my mind at a Socialist Group party, I wouldn't come up with the notion." But talk of it they do in Brussels, and not only drunkenly in bars. Some of Spencer's more Euro-friendly colleagues positively welcome the prospect. "I wouldn't like to be caught openly saying it, but it would be quite nice to have a Brit in that position, even if it was him," confides another, thoroughly sober Tory MEP. "One does take a sort of British point of view over here, you see. He's not making a bad job of things, and one might rather have him than somebody else."

But, surprisingly, Labour would not be delighted to see a President Kinnock. "I don't think Tony [Blair] would be wildly enthusiastic," warns one foreign policy adviser. "He's certainly better than the Tories, but not as Euro-friendly as some think. The President pledges sole allegiance to the European Union, so that would make him a loose cannon. Plus everything Kinnock did would be seen as a Labour position." Indeed, some tabloids have already held Kinnock partly responsible for assorted outrages, such as last year's strike by French lorry drivers. It is not hard to imagine the headlines - "Nightmare on Kinnock Strasse!", "EU no, he' s back!". That would be considered distinctly unhelpful by a Labour government in mid-term.

Commissioner Kinnock himself maintains a judicious official silence. "He wants it, but isn't going to put the kiss of death on his chances by announcing it," says one MEP close to him. Personal aides take a stern line. "It's totally improper to be writing that sort of story at this time," protests Kinnock's long-time chief of staff, Jan Royal. "We've got M. Santer. We work fine with him and are jolly pleased to do so. It's extremely rude to consider other people right now. Well, of course I think he'd be a good president, but it's pure speculation, and, because I think he'd be good, I wouldn't want his name to appear in the ring only to be totally dismissed." Nevertheless, like it or not, the Kinnock name is firmly in the frame.