What could Labour do next?

Jeremy Corbyn has pursued a strategy of ‘constructive ambiguity’ to avoid alienating voters. Events now look set to finally force him off the fence

Jeremy Corbyn has always seen the endgame of the Brexit process as a chance to secure a general election. Yet as the crucial moment approaches, there is a growing acceptance in Labour circles that the party is unlikely to get one.

While the DUP will vote against Theresa May’s deal, it would then support her government on a motion of no confidence tabled if the deal is rejected by MPs. So Labour might unite Tory MPs behind May by calling an immediate confidence vote.

The opposition may therefore shelve its plans to put down such a motion on the morning after May’s deal has been blocked. It might be tempted to try to remove May rather than the government, perhaps by joining with the DUP and some Tories in engineering a confidence vote in her personally.

If the government lost a confidence vote, Labour would try to form minority government with the help of the SNP and other opposition parties. But it would be unlikely to win the DUP’s support in these circumstances, and so would probably fail to win the positive vote of confidence needed to put Corbyn in Downing Street.

Allies say the Labour leader wants to use the looming crisis to put forward his party's alternative – a permanent customs union (with a say over future trade deals with other countries) and “strong relationship with the single market” to secure frictionless trade.

He has promised to change the Northern Ireland backstop but his prospectus is seen as vague and unlikely to command a Commons majority. Labour claims its positive approach would transform the EU negotiations.

If necessary, it would seek to extend the Article 50 process beyond March to provide more time. But it is unclear whether a Corbyn government would win a better deal.

If he fails to provoke an election, Corbyn will have some big decisions to make. Since the 2016 referendum, he has pursued a strategy of “constructive ambiguity” to avoid alienating Leave or Remain voters. Events now look set to finally force him off the fence.

Labour’s annual conference in September agreed that, in the absence of an election, all options would be on the agenda, including “campaigning for a public vote.”

Corbyn has never been keen on a Final Say referendum. A lifelong Eurosceptic, he has always been most comfortable in saying he respects the 2016 decision; proposing “a public vote” would provoke accusations of overturning it.

Some of his closest allies, including the Unite leader Len McCluskey, fear that backing a referendum would anger so many Leave voters in the North and Midlands that Labour could not win an election. But there is strong backing for a referendum among Labour’s Remain-dominated members and growing support among Labour MPs, although about 20 would likely vote against the idea.

It is difficult to see where else Labour could go. Corbyn is not keen on Norway plus because the UK would be a rule-taker, rather than rule-maker. Some Labour backbenchers will support Norway plus in Commons votes, exposing the divide in Labour’s ranks that Corbyn’s approach has so far largely masked.

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary and Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, have edged Labour down the road to a referendum. Corbyn allies are insisting on a “proper process” which should not be rushed.

If May's deal is scuppered, Corbyn will come under intense pressure from his own party to show decisive leadership in the crisis by proposing a referendum. With 257 MPs, it is no exaggeration to say that Labour’s decisions in the days ahead could determine the UK’s future.