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Even if Theresa May strikes a no-deal Brexit, she will most likely remain prime minister

 The significance of her conference speech is that she intends to see Brexit through regardless of the outcome

John Rentoul
Saturday 06 October 2018 18:33 BST
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Theresa May: “Even if we do not all agree on every part of this proposal, we need to come together - because it’s time we faced up to what is at risk”

The pound jumped on Friday after briefings from Brussels that officials thought a Brexit deal was “very close”. On Saturday morning Jean-Claude Juncker said the chance of a deal had increased. It is hard to tell if this is true or not. It could just be a tactic, to try to raise the tempo and to put the blame on the British if a deal cannot be done.

The best way of trying to work it out may be to look at each side’s sticking points and judge which ones could come unstuck. My view is that the two things Theresa May would not concede are Northern Ireland being “carved out” of the UK, and the continued free movement of people. Everything else is negotiable. The question, therefore, is whether the EU would allow the whole of the UK to have frictionless access to the single market without free movement.

Put like that, it doesn’t sound possible. Free movement of people is one of the “indivisible” four freedoms of the single market. But what if May made concessions? Britain could pay an annual fee; we could agree, “voluntarily”, to abide by EU regulations, which May calls the common rulebook and which Jacob Rees-Mogg calls vassal state status; and the UK could in effect be in a customs union with the EU.

That seems to be the only deal that could be done. Anything else requires a hard border in Ireland, which the EU cannot accept – even though failure to agree a deal would mean the hardest possible border.

We have arrived, then, at the fork in the road. In the next 10 days before the October EU summit, or in the next three months before the real deadline in mid-January, there will either be a withdrawal agreement or not.

In the event of a deal, May would be in a strong position. The hard Brexiteers would condemn the betrayal. They may even launch a challenge to her leadership. But she has the majority of her MPs behind her. It was notable at the Tory conference in Birmingham this week that she also has more support from the loyalist centre of the party than the caricature of the “Eurosceptic grassroots” suggests.

At this point Labour’s bluster about voting against the deal would be exposed. If a deal were struck, I don’t think there would be enough Tory MPs to back a postponement of Brexit and a new referendum. My guess is that Labour MPs would then split three ways: voting for the deal, against it and abstaining. There would probably be enough Labour MPs to get the deal through – they would not want to be responsible for a no-deal Brexit, which would by then be the only alternative.

Nobody would like the outcome much, but we would leave the EU in March and little would change straight away. The grumbling about May’s leadership would continue, as ineffectively as before.

Where things get interesting – and not in a good way for the country – is if there is no withdrawal agreement. Despite this week’s expressions of optimism, the gap between the two sides is wide enough to suggest this must still be possible. Forecasters ought to quantify their predictions, so I would say it is a 25 per cent chance.

This was the subject of the most interesting part of Theresa May’s conference speech: “Britain isn’t afraid to leave with no deal if we have to. But we need to be honest about it. Leaving without a deal – introducing tariffs and costly checks at the border – would be a bad outcome for the UK and the EU. It would be tough at first, but the resilience and ingenuity of the British people would see us through.”

When the prime minister is relying on the resilience and ingenuity of the British people to get the country through the failure of her policy, we are at a strange point in our history. Would that not be the end of her?

Probably not. I think the significance of her conference speech is that she intends to see Brexit through regardless. Indeed, I believe those who say she intends to make amends for her dreadful campaign at the last election by fighting and winning the next one. Her party may not let her but she intends to try to go on and on. And the other significant development in Birmingham this week was the failure of any of her would-be successors to make their case irresistible.

But would a failure to strike a deal mean the House of Commons voting to postpone Brexit and continue negotiations, or hold another referendum? Again, I doubt it. The prospect of leaving the EU without a deal would maximise support among MPs for extending the Brexit deadline, but it is hard to see how that could happen. It would require legislation to be passed, which is difficult if the government is opposed.

We would end up precisely where Dominic Grieve, the rebellious Tory lawyer, feared we would when he tried to amend the EU Withdrawal Bill in July. He wanted a binding mechanism by which a majority in the Commons could dictate to the government what should happen next. But he was persuaded to back down, and to trust the prime minister.

I suspect that, even if there is no deal, we will leave the EU and Theresa May will still be prime minister.

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