A sensational win for the Conservatives? Maybe not...

Whichever way the EU referendum goes, Cameron's authority will be fatally undermined

David Cameron celebrates after winning majority (Getty Images)

Last night’s election results herald a difficult period for several political parties. But one surprising potential victim is the Conservative Party. Despite what is today being described as a sensational win for the Tories, David Cameron will lead a Tory government with a smaller majority than John Major won in 1992. And as Major discovered, the Conservative Right can be awkward bastards.

At first sight it might seem that Cameron has given the Euroskeptics enough raw meat to chew on. But it is hard to see how the in/out referendum can be anything other than a disaster for the prime minster. His plan is to renegotiate the UK’s position in Europe and then to ask the British people to vote to stay in (“Yes”). But large numbers of his backbenchers and the majority of his grassroots members do not want a renegotiated membership. They want to leave.

Cameron will undoubtedly follow Harold Wilson’s precedent and give even the cabinet freedom to campaign on their conscience. But both results spell disaster for the him. If he campaigns for a Yes but the country votes No, it will be a dramatic loss of face. On the other hand, if he wins a Yes vote, his own party will be furious at him for wrecking a once-in-a-generation opportunity to quit. Either way, his authority will be fatally undermined.

But then, he has already ruled out a third term as Prime Minister. That means that the moment that the referendum is over (if not before), the leadership campaign will begin. As we saw in aftermath of the 2005 election, pre-announcing your plan to retire pulls the plug on your political capital; Cameron will find his power draining away as ambitious colleagues form camps around his likely successors. And these successors will have every reason to pander to the worst instincts of the party. Forget compassionate, liberal, one nation conservativism.

One man could, perhaps, avert disaster. When the new parliamentary party meet for the first time, somebody with sufficient weight and no ambition to lead could perhaps address the room and urge discipline and order. But it would have to be somebody with utterly impeccable Euroskeptic credentials. Only Nixon could go to China. And only a former Maastricht Rebel who had already had his turn as leader could urge his fellow MPs to stand squarely behind the leadership and not tear the administration down around them. If Iain Duncan Smith made that speech, it might be his greatest contribution to the Conservative Party. But there is no guarantee that his colleagues would listen.

There is a theory that the UK cycles through periodic bouts of political realignment – that every 30 years or so the tectonic plates shift. The inter-war collapse of the Liberals and the rise of Labour is a case in point; so is the early 1980s, as the Tories became a free market party and the SDP broke from Labour. If another realignment is coming, it won’t just be “the Left” that is torn apart. Last night may come to be seen as the first shot in the Conservative civil war.

Tom Papworth is Associate Director at CentreForum