This is slightly different from a similar projection by Stephen Fisher of Trinity College, Oxford, last week, who forecast that Labour and the Conservatives would have almost exactly the same number of seats in a hung parliament. Both projections try to extrapolate from current opinion polls, based on the average movement of party support in the year before an election. According to Polling Observatory, there has been, on average, a swing of 2.7 percentage points to the government party in the 12 months before elections.
What is interesting is that Labour's forecast is creeping up because the opposition party in the past has tended to lose ground around this time, and Ed Miliband's party is currently holding steady.
3. Controversy yesterday over David Cameron at Prime Minister's Questions quoting something Harriet Harman said on Monday:
"People on middle incomes should contribute more through their taxes."
I was pleased that I was supported by two Conservatives. Tim Montgomerie:
"I have no doubt Labour would hike taxes if they won office but Tory misrepresentation of what Harriet Harman said does politics no favours."
And Iain Dale, who was on LBC with Harman at the time, and who did not think he had missed "a story":
"The Prime Minister was somewhat careless with the actualite/overegged the pudding re Harriet Harman's middle class tax comments."
4. A journey through the most disturbing statues of the world. From i100.
5. Map of the Day: the proportion of young people, 25-34, living with their parents. Thanks to Alberto Nardelli and Miroslave Hajnos.
Denmark 1.8%, France 11.5%, UK 14.4%, Italy 46.6%
6. Finally, thanks to Matthew Hancock, the new Business minister, now attending Cabinet, via Chris Heaton-Harris, for this oldie:
"What does an Egyptian Mummy dance to? Rap."Reuse content