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Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare

The domino effect of democracy on Russia's border threatens the entire system Putin has built since 2000 - and he will not let it go lightly

p37putinEPA.jpg
Living on a prayer: President Putin will hold most of the economic cards whatever the look of the new Ukrainian government

The details still need to be decided, but the revolutionaries have won in Ukraine. Some elements of the old regime may survive, but that is precisely why the protesters on the “Maidan” (Kiev’s main square) don’t trust the mainstream politicians who claim to be negotiating on their behalf.

The politicians in suits can do the donkey work – writing a new constitution to improve on the old one they have just restored, and trying to save the collapsing economy. But the Maidan leaders in the fatigues and helmets will set the agenda on justice – dismantling the militia and reworking the corrupt legal system, so that the many guilty end up behind bars. And there are credible reports that the snipers who killed more than 70 on Thursday were based in the government buildings that are  already being occupied by protesters combing for evidence. Once the world knows who gave the deadly orders, justice will decapitate the old regime. And the “official”  opposition will be radicalised by the need to compete with the moral authority of the Maidan.

All of which is the Kremlin’s worst nightmare. When the protests started back in November they were about a trade deal with the EU. Russia was ecstatic that it had persuaded Ukraine to walk away from that deal, and was picking off the other states in the EU’s “Eastern Partnership” programme (Armenia caved in September, Georgia and Moldova were  expected to come under enormous pressure in 2014). Russia hoped to drag them into its alternative Eurasian Union instead, which is due to be launched in January 2015.

But this is 10 times worse than Brussels expanding its bureaucracy to Russia’s borders. A real democracy in Ukraine is an existential threat to the entire system that Vladimir Putin has built since 2000. Ironically because Putin is right – most Russians regard Ukraine as a kin state, or not really a different state at all. They are used to stepping in tandem; so if something changes in Ukraine, why not in Russia too? And now the dominoes might fall in the other direction. Other Maidans might appear in other neighbouring states – maybe first in Moldova where the Russia-backed Communist Party was hoping to return to power in elections due in November.

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Putin marginalised his own protest movement after the last Russian election cycle. He does not want to see that flare up again. So far, the Russian opposition has been quiet. Few have supported the Ukrainian Maidan, even fewer sound inspired to copy it – for now. But Putin will need to come up with something more convincing than the scattergun propaganda the Russian media has pumped out to date.

None of the favourite Russian myths – the protesters are all crazy nationalists, which is why they are also backed by the Americans, the young guys throwing rocks are really only interested in promoting gay rights – make much sense in the long run.

So the new government in Ukraine, however it’s made up, will be given the briefest of ritualistic honeymoons before Russia uses every instrument at its disposal to try to make it fail. Unfortunately, Russia holds most of the economic cards. Ukraine’s coffers are almost empty, and the old guard is busy looting what is left. It has less than $18bn (£10.9bn) in hard currency reserves, its currency is dropping and immediate debt-repayment needs are more than $10bn.

Russia tied Ukraine to a $15bn bailout deal in December, which is parcelled out by the month to maximise leverage, and periodically suspended whenever the opposition looked like getting the upper hand. But Russia’s real aim was to provide just enough money to support the old semi-authoritarian system (helping Viktor Yanukovych pay the police) and keep Ukrainian society post-Soviet, that is, still dependent on government. So Ukraine’s new leaders will have to be honest and say their aim is to dismantle both. They cannot declare victory now, but will have to plead for popular support during what will be two or three difficult years.

In pictures: Ukraine uprising

In pictures: Ukraine uprising

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    People light candles during a religious service at a church in Kiev

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    A child lights a candle on a makeshift memorial to anti-government protesters killed in the past weeks' clashes with riot police on Kiev's Independence Square

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    Newly freed Ukrainian opposition icon Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square moments after parliament voted to hold early presidential elections in May. Tymoshenko received a rapturous welcome on Independence Square. 'You are heroes, you are the best of Ukraine' she told the 50,000-strong crowd before breaking down in tears

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    People visit the Independence square in Kiev

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    People walk by barrycades and makeshift memorials to the victims of the riots in central Kiev

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    People lay flowers on the Independence Square in Kiev

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    Maidan self-defence activists stand on an armored vehicle in central Kiev

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    People gather for prayers and to listen to speakers in Independence Square

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    A woman with a Ukrainian flag wrapped around her sholders looks on as she lights a candle at a makeshift memorial to anti-government protesters killed in the past weeks' clashes with riot police

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    The body of Ustim Holodnyuk (19) who was killed in fighting between anti-government protesters and police, is carried from Independence Square in Kiev

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    An anti-government protester injured during clashes with riot police receives medical care at a makeshift hospital in Kiev

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    Protestors build a barricade at the Independent square in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters shout 'Glory to the Ukraine' as they man a barricade at Independence Square in Kiev

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    An anti-government demonstrator holds a burning tire as he build a barricade at the Independent square in Kiev

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    An anti-government demonstrator builds a barricade with burning tires at the Independent square in Kiev

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    An anti-government demonstrator throws a burning tire as he build a barricade at the Independent square in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters carry an injured man on a stretcher after clashes with riot police in the Independence Square in Kiev

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    Protesters cheer while they managed to break police blockade in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters take cover while under fire from police snipers during clashes with riot police in central Kiev

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    Protesters hold petrol bombs during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters carry an injured man on a stretcher after clashes with riot police in the Independence Square in Kiev

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    Protesters walk on a puddle of blood left by a wounded demonstrator during clashes with the police in the center of Kiev

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    An anti-government protester holds a firearm as he mans a barricade on the outskirts of Independence Square in Kiev

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    An Otrthodox priest gestures after clashes between anti-government protesters and riot police in the Independence Square in Kiev

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    An elderly protester smokes during a break in clashes with police in central Kiev

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    A protestor carries food for demonstrators on the barricades during the face off against heavily-armed police in Kiev

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    An anti-government protester reacts following clashes with riot police in Independence Square in Kiev

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    Two anti-government protesters use a large drum after violence erupted in the Independence Square in Kiev

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    A man plays the trumpet as anti-government protesters continue to clash with police in Independence square in Kiev

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    Riot police fire at anti government demonstrators on the Independence square in Kiev

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    Anti government demonstrators carry a wounded comrade during clashes with riot police on the Independence square in Kiev

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    A protester shouts slogans as he stands behind barricades during clashes with police in Kiev

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    A protester throws a petrol bomb as he stands behind barricades during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Ukraine's embattled leader announced a 'truce' with the opposition as he prepared to get grilled by visiting EU diplomats over clashes that killed 26 and left the government facing diplomatic isolation

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    Protesters burn as they stand behind burning barricades during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters continue to clash with police in Independence square, despite a truce agreed between the Ukrainian president and opposition leaders in Kiev

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    A protester sits on a statue while others stand on a barricade during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Protesters carry a wounded protester during clashes with police, after gaining new positions near the Independence square in Kiev

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    Protester carries bottles during the clashes with police in Independence square in Kiev

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    Protesters walk and stand near a burning bus at the Institutskaya Street close to the central Independence Square in Kiev

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    Protesters stand behind burning barricades during a face-off against police in Kiev

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    Protesters escort a 'captured' policeman near Independence square in Kiev

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    Violent clashes erupted in Kiev following renewed anti-government protests, with the death toll rising to 25

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    An anti-government protesters prays in Independence Square in Kiev

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    Anti-government protester throws Molotov cocktail at the police in Independence Square in Kiev

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    Injured anti-government protester at the Independence Square in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters in Independence Square in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters carry a roundwood as they gather in Independence Square in central Kiev

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    An anti-government protester looks on as smoke from a fire rises above Independence Square in central Kiev

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    Protesters at the Independence Square in Kiev

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    Ukrainian protesters poured on to a central Kiev square to confront police anew after the bloodiest day since the former Soviet republic, caught in a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West, won its independence

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    Interior Ministry officers walk in formation as smoke rises above Independence Square where anti-government protesters are holding a rally in central Kiev

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    Smoke rises above Independence Square as clashes between anti-government protesters with Interior Ministry members and riot police continue in central Kiev

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    A trade union building is seen on fire in Independence Square in central Kiev

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    Interior Ministry members and riot police block a street as anti-government protesters gather in front of them amidst heavy smoke during clashes in Kiev

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    Ukrainian riot police take cover behind their shields during clashes with anti-government protesters near Independence Square in Kiev

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    Ukrainian riot police stand in front of the fire ring around of the Independence Square during the continuing protest in downtown Kiev

    EPA

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    Flames engulfed the main anti-government protest camp on Independence Square as riot police

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    Anti-government protesters clash with the police during their storming of Independence Square in Kiev

    Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images

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    Anti-government protesters clash with the police during their storming of Independence Square in Kiev. Flames engulfed the main anti-government protest camp on Kiev's Independence Square on Tuesday as riot police tried to force demonstrators out following the bloodiest clashes in three months of protests

    Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images

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    Monuments to Kiev's founders burn as anti-government protesters clash with riot police in Kiev's Independence Square

    Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    Riot police storm Kiev's Independence Square

    Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    Riot police storm Kiev's Independence Square, the epicenter of the country's current unrest

    Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    Anti-government protesters clash with riot police in Kiev's Independence Square

    Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    An anti-government protester runs during clashes with riot police in Kiev's Independence Square

    Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    Anti-government protesters clash with riot police in Kiev's Independence Square, the epicenter of the country's current unrest

    Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    Ukrainians gather on the Independence Square during continuing protest in Kiev; smoke is visible in the sky, above the city

    Igor Kovalenko/EPA

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    Smoke from exploding fireworks and fires billows into the night sky as Ukrainians gather on the Independence Square during continuing protest in Kiev

    Igor Kovalenko/EPA

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    Police clash with anti-government protesters in Kiev. Police on Tuesday began an assault on the main anti-government protest camp in Kiev after a day of bloody clashes, AFP journalists at the scene said

    Anatolii Boiko/AFP/Getty Images

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    Anti-government demonstrators stand on barricades during clashes with riot police in Kiev

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    An opposition demonstrator holds a Molotov cocktail during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Injured anti-government protesters look on a policeman during clashes with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev

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    Wounded people walk after clashes with riot police in central Kiev

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    Anti-government female protesters help an injured comrade during clashes with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev

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    Injured anti-government protesters during clashes with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters carry a wounded man during clashes with riot police in Kiev

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    Opposition demonstrators evacuate a wounded protester during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Red Cross workers give first aid to policemen wounded during clashes with anti-government protester in Kiev

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    An injured anti-government protester lies on the ground during clashes with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev

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    Interior ministry members take cover behind shields during clashes with anti-government protesters in Kiev

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    Opposition demonstrators stand in front of burning barricades during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters clash with police in front of the Ukrainian Parliment in Kiev

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    A protester holds a makeshft shield in front of a burning car during clashes with police in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters shield themselves during clashes with riot police in central Kiev

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    Interior Ministry members are on fire, caused by molotov cocktails hurled by anti-government protesters, as they stand guard during clashes in Kiev

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    Protesters clash with riot police as a rainbow appears during continuing protests in downtown Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters clashed violently with police in central Kiev, a day after Moscow moved to cement its influence over Ukraine with $2 billion in cash to shore up the former Soviet state's heavily indebted economy

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    People speak near a barricade on fire during clashes between anti-government protesters and Interior Ministry members in Kiev

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    Two wounded policemen are guided to the ambulance cars during an anti-government protest in downtown Kiev

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    Protesters take over the main office of the ruling Ukrainian 'Party of Regions' political party in downtown Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters attempt to break a door inside an office of the pro-presidential Party of the Regions in Kiev

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    A protester inside the main office of the ruling Ukrainian Party of Regions political party in downtown Kiev

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    An anti-government protester dressed in Ukrainian national dress throws a stone during clashes with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev

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    Anti-government protesters gather by the entrance as they attack an office of the pro-presidential Party of the Regions in Kiev

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    A young anti-government protester looks on during clashes with police in front of the Ukrainian Parliment in Kiev

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    An anti-government protester wears a gas mask during clashes with Interior Ministry members in Kiev. Several thousand anti-government protesters clashed with police near Ukraine's parliament torching vehicles and hurling stones in the worst violence to rock the capital Kiev in more than three weeks

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    Thousands of angry anti-government protesters clashed with police in a new eruption of violence following new maneuvering by Russia and the European Union to gain influence over this former Soviet republic

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    An anti-government protester threatens riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev

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    Protesters marched toward the parliament to demand constitutional reforms that would curb the powers of President Viktor Yanukovych. Ukraine has been mired in political crisis since November 2013 after the government backed away from a trade agreement with the European Union and signed a 15-billion-dollar loan deal with Russia instead

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    At least five anti-government protesters were killed and some 150 others injured in fresh clashes between police and demonstrators protesting near Ukraine's parliament building in Kiev

 

And if the West is serious about an alternative deal, Ukraine needs a lot of money fast. Fortunately, the West would no longer be throwing it down the black hole created by the old regime. Instead the money would support the kind of kamikaze leader Ukraine has never had in the past. Politicians were reluctant to make difficult choices and lose elections, because they’d never get back into power. Now Russia and the old regime will back any populist who promises to keep government subsidies flowing; but an honest kamikaze might just win the long-term credit and at least write his place in the history books.

Russia has talked a lot about its “soft power” in recent years. It isn’t particularly soft. The new Ukraine will pay more for gas, which will be regularly cut off for “technical reasons”. Russia’s crazy “food safety” agency will declare that everything that comes out of Ukraine is radioactive. Ukrainian migrant workers will be sent home now they have finished helping to  rebuild Sochi.

Worst of all, Russia will work hard to try to re-corrupt the  political system. The Kremlin used to boast that it could exploit Ukraine’s old-style “democracy” – meaning that, just like Yanukovych, they could launch their own puppet parties and buy agents of influence in the honest ones. The Ukrainian Front, a bizarre alliance of hooligans and bikers with a vaguely pan-Slavist ideology that appeared in the eastern city of Kharkiv two weeks ago, was backed by the Russians. Skinheads and sportsmen with the money to spend on propaganda are not a natural combination. Similar groups may pop up in Crimea and elsewhere, where the last elements of the old regime may try and regroup.

But Russia’s ultimate problem is the same as Yanukovych faced. The Kremlin simply can’t understand that protesters would be motivated by ideology rather than by money or foreign support. The Russians were good at manipulating the old system, but dealing with real revolutionaries is a different matter. Ukraine is starting a very bumpy ride.

Andrew Wilson, Reader in Ukrainian studies at University College London, is author of 'Ukraine's Orange Revolution'

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