Andrew Grice: McBride's unfriendly fire may have shot the PM's electoral hopes

Share
Related Topics

Gordon Brown had reasons for optimism when he arrived at his Fife home for his Easter "break". Labour's latest private polling showed that, after slipping back since the start of the year as job losses mounted, he had again clawed his way back into the game by doing what he does best – focusing relentlessly on the economy and dominating the political agenda.

Following his successful G20 London summit, public confidence in both Mr Brown and his Government had returned to their levels of last November, after the initial rescue of the banks. Despite the recession, the polling showed, many people had noticed a rise in their real disposable income after mortgage rates fell and a lower cost of living due to low inflation.

True, the public is worried about personal and government debt. But people are more worried about losing their jobs and their homes. They support targeted interventions by the Government to limit the pain and duration of the recession and want to see a "future picture" of the economy.

The polling, which has helped to shape the strategy for next Wednesday's Budget, reinforced the Prime Minister in his view that people do not want a "do nothing" approach to the recession – the charge he repeatedly throws at the Tories, who furiously deny it.

Mr Brown felt confident of continuing his fightback in the Budget, timed to translate the G20 pledges into action at home. But his optimism was brought to a sudden halt when aides rang with news of a scandal that was to blow his strategy off course. Emails leaked to last Sunday's newspapers would reveal a plan by Damian McBride, one of his closest aides, to smear senior Tories by peddling false allegations on a new Red Rag website. Although the proposal was scrapped, the leak would be terribly damaging.

Instead of preparing the ground for the Budget with a series of economic initiatives, the Government has spent the past week trying to clear up the mess, which did not end when Mr McBride resigned. Instead of playing to his strengths, Mr Brown found an uncomfortable spotlight shone on the dark side he thought he had left behind.

The Brown hit squad, which had cleared his path to the premiership by eliminating his potential rivals, had largely decommissioned its weapons, certainly for use in Labour's long-running internal battles. There wasn't much need for them after a truce with the Blairites was signed last autumn – when Lord Mandelson, a Brown foe turned friend, was recalled to the Cabinet. Since then, Mr McBride had worked harmoniously with Blarite colleagues. Ironically, he was caught red-handed when he turned the weapons of destruction on to Labour's more natural Tory enemy.

Mr Brown's handling of the crisis only prolonged his agony. Although he wrote to Mr McBride's intended Tory victims, he characteristically refused to say sorry until Thursday, giving the story oxygen.

Brown allies are nervous that more emails about the smear campaign may emerge. They are desperate to "move on" and can't wait for next week's Budget to put the economy back at the top of the political agenda.

Cabinet ministers are appalled, and admit the McBride affair has inflicted serious damage. "The only way we can win the election is by making it a choice on the economy," one said. "Once we are pushed off that, it becomes a referendum and, after 13 years in power, there is no hope for us. That's why what happened this week was so bad for us and for Gordon."

The only crumb of comfort for Brownites is their hope that, when the election comes, people will almost certainly vote with the economy in their mind rather than a Labour smear campaign that came to light a year earlier.

Some images stick, however. The announcement that the Tory frontbencher Damian Green would not be prosecuted after a fruitless police inquiry into Home Office leaks reinforces the unflattering picture of a government scrabbling to save its skin as the last grains of sand slip quickly into the bottom of the hourglass.

Mr Brown, for all the faults exposed this week, might well hold the upper hand over David Cameron in a straight choice on the economy. But it will be harder now to portray Mr Cameron and George Osborne as inexperienced, short-term tacticians with no long-term strategy who treat politics as a game, as Labour had intended. Instead, Downing Street had to admit Mr McBride had resorted to "juvenile" tactics, making Mr Cameron look more substantial and Mr Brown the grubby tactician.

Just as the Tories found it virtually impossible to land blows on Tony Blair in the run-up to the 1997 election, Labour may find Mr Cameron an elusive target.

React Now

Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
SPONSORED FEATURES
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Senior Environmental Adviser - Maternity Cover

£37040 - £43600 per annum: Recruitment Genius: The UK's export credit agency a...

Recruitment Genius: CBM & Lubrication Technician

£25000 - £27500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company provides a compreh...

Recruitment Genius: Care Worker - Residential Emergency Service

£16800 - £19500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Would you like to join an organ...

Recruitment Genius: Senior Landscaper

£25000 - £28000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: In the last five years this com...

Day In a Page

Read Next
 

Errors & Omissions: Whoever and whatever Arthur was, he wasn’t Scottish

Guy Keleny
Labour's Jeremy Corbyn arrives to take part in a Labour party leadership final debate, at the Sage in Gateshead, England, Thursday, Sept. 3  

Jeremy Corbyn is here to stay and the Labour Party is never going to look the same again

Andrew Grice
The long walk west: they fled war in Syria, only to get held up in Hungary – now hundreds of refugees have set off on foot for Austria

They fled war in Syria...

...only to get stuck and sidetracked in Hungary
From The Prisoner to Mad Men, elaborate title sequences are one of the keys to a great TV series

Title sequences: From The Prisoner to Mad Men

Elaborate title sequences are one of the keys to a great TV series. But why does the art form have such a chequered history?
Giorgio Armani Beauty's fabric-inspired foundations: Get back to basics this autumn

Giorgio Armani Beauty's foundations

Sumptuous fabrics meet luscious cosmetics for this elegant look
From stowaways to Operation Stack: Life in a transcontinental lorry cab

Life from the inside of a trucker's cab

From stowaways to Operation Stack, it's a challenging time to be a trucker heading to and from the Continent
Kelis interview: The songwriter and sauce-maker on cooking for Pharrell and crying over potatoes

Kelis interview

The singer and sauce-maker on cooking for Pharrell
Refugee crisis: David Cameron lowered the flag for the dead king of Saudi Arabia - will he do the same honour for little Aylan Kurdi?

Cameron lowered the flag for the dead king of Saudi Arabia...

But will he do the same honour for little Aylan Kurdi, asks Robert Fisk
Our leaders lack courage in this refugee crisis. We are shamed by our European neighbours

Our leaders lack courage in this refugee crisis. We are shamed by our European neighbours

Humanity must be at the heart of politics, says Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden's 'tease tour': Could the US Vice-President be testing the water for a presidential run?

Joe Biden's 'tease tour'

Could the US Vice-President be testing the water for a presidential run?
Britain's 24-hour culture: With the 'leisured society' a distant dream we're working longer and less regular hours than ever

Britain's 24-hour culture

With the 'leisured society' a distant dream we're working longer and less regular hours than ever
Diplomacy board game: Treachery is the way to win - which makes it just like the real thing

The addictive nature of Diplomacy

Bullying, betrayal, aggression – it may be just a board game, but the family that plays Diplomacy may never look at each other in the same way again
Lady Chatterley's Lover: Racy underwear for fans of DH Lawrence's equally racy tome

Fashion: Ooh, Lady Chatterley!

Take inspiration from DH Lawrence's racy tome with equally racy underwear
8 best children's clocks

Tick-tock: 8 best children's clocks

Whether you’re teaching them to tell the time or putting the finishing touches to a nursery, there’s a ticker for that
Charlie Austin: Queens Park Rangers striker says ‘If the move is not right, I’m not going’

Charlie Austin: ‘If the move is not right, I’m not going’

After hitting 18 goals in the Premier League last season, the QPR striker was the great non-deal of transfer deadline day. But he says he'd preferred another shot at promotion
Isis profits from destruction of antiquities by selling relics to dealers - and then blowing up the buildings they come from to conceal the evidence of looting

How Isis profits from destruction of antiquities

Robert Fisk on the terrorist group's manipulation of the market to increase the price of artefacts
Labour leadership: Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea

'If we lose touch we’ll end up with two decades of the Tories'

In an exclusive interview, Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea