Christopher Bellamy: Black propaganda serves to obscure the reality of battle

So, Saddam Hussein international airport, renamed Baghdad airport, has been "secured", although the Iraqis have threatened a "martyrdom operation" to kill all the US troops who seized it. Meanwhile, special forces are said to be operating in Baghdad. And several Republican Guard divisions have been "destroyed". Do we believe any of that and, if so, what does it all mean?

The Iraqis have forsaken high-profile objectives, the airport and main bridges, which they might have been expected to destroy. Careless? Incompetent? Unlucky? Or clever?

Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, Iraq's Information minister, announced that Iraq would conduct a "non-conventional act", not necessarily military. Some sort of "martyrdom operation". He denied this would involve weapons of mass destruction.

Have the Iraqis set a trap? If Mr Sahaf means what he says, what are the options? Even if the larger missiles are destroyed or staying hidden, artillery can still devastate the airport from 20 miles away. The US would have to clear an area of at least 1,200 square miles to be sure it was "secure". But such a response would neither kill or the Americans, nor would that kind of response be non-conventional.

An airport, especially one working, is a perfect target for nuclear or chemical weapons. But these are the weapons of mass destruction Mr Sahaf denied planning to use.

A report also mentioned tunnels from the airport to the Tigris, 10 miles away. Maybe the Iraqis have a scheme to divert the river to flood the airport. Or maybe they plan to overrun it with a suicidal attack. Or maybe, as so often, the warning was propaganda.

Next, the special forces. How realistic is it to think that coalition special forces have moved along the 12 miles to the city centre and are on the streets mingling with locals? Or dug in on building sites or in the sewers?

A few of them may be. But I suspect they would be easy for Iraqi civilians to spot. The less said here, the better. I suspect the reports are propaganda to unsettle the leadership.

Reports of Republican Guard surrenders are intriguing. Four of its six divisions are reported to have been mauled while much of another has given up. But a formation "destroyed" does not mean everybody is killed, wounded or taken prisoner. It means its cohesion as a fighting force is broken, and its headquarters no longer functions.

Remember the early "surrender" of the 51st Division in Basra? The general surrendered, but many of his troops did not and melted into the Basra brickwork. Reports of divisions being "destroyed" can be meaningless.

Christopher Bellamy is professor of military science and doctrine at Cranfield University