Donald Macintyre: An attack on Iran? It's a hawkish fantasy

Share
Related Topics

Could superhawk John Bolton be guilty of wishful thinking? Within hours of the Bulgarian attack the former US ambassador to the UN was on Fox News predicting that Israel would respond to the killing of five of its citizens by attacking Revolutionary Guard facilities in Iran itself.

As a Republican who thinks that Israel should have long ago bombed Iran's nuclear installations, Mr Bolton sounded positively excited by the escalation that would be triggered by such a reprisal. But will it happen like that?

Certainly there is a link between the strong language again used by the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday to describe "the most dangerous state on earth" and his determination to stop Iran becoming a nuclear military power. Which is to use the Bulgaria attack as yet another means to impress upon the international community what kind of regime, as he sees it, would have a nuclear weapon if it is allowed to get it. It's because he doesn't think his allies yet "get it" that he has – ominously – refused to take the unilateral military option off the table.

But it is far less clear that even a political duo as preoccupied with Iran as Mr Netanyahu and his Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, would regard the Bulgaria attack, rather than Tehran's progress towards a nuclear weapon, as the right casus belli.

According to one Israeli official yesterday, a likelier model for retaliation might be the painstaking – though not always correctly targeted – hunting down, man by man, of the killers of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munch Olympics 40 years ago.

Israel purports to have, or to be confident of getting, the intelligence needed for such an operation. In a volatile region, nothing is certain today. But that remains a likelier outcome of the Burgas bombing than the immediate conflagration Mr Bolton appears to want.

React Now

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Web / Digital Analyst - SiteCatalyst or Google Analytics

competitive: Progressive Recruitment: My client who are a leading publisher in...

Campaign Manager

competitive: Progressive Recruitment: A leading marketing agency is currently ...

Software Engineer - C++

£35000 - £45000 per annum + competitive: Progressive Recruitment: Software En...

Software Team Leader - C++

£40000 - £45000 per annum + competitive: Progressive Recruitment: Software Tea...

Day In a Page

Read Next
 

The daily catch-up: what if Hillary sticks, drowning sorrows and open sesame

John Rentoul
 

i Deputy Editor's Letter:

Independent Voices, Indy Voices Rhodri Jones
Super Mario crushes the Messi dream as Germany win the 2014 World Cup in Brazil

Super Mario crushes the Messi dream

Germany win the 2014 World Cup in Brazil
Saharan remains may be evidence of the first race war, 13,000 years ago

The first race war, 13,000 years ago?

Saharan remains may be evidence of oldest large-scale armed conflict
Scientists find early warning system for Alzheimer’s

Scientists find early warning system for Alzheimer’s

Researchers hope eye tests can spot ‘biomarkers’ of the disease
Sex, controversy and schoolgirl schtick

Meet Japan's AKB48

Pop, sex and schoolgirl schtick make for controversial success
In pictures: Breathtaking results of this weekend's 'supermoon'

Weekend's 'supermoon' in pictures

The moon appeared bigger and brighter at the weekend
Iraq crisis: How Saudi Arabia helped Isis take over the north of the country

How Saudi Arabia helped Isis take over northern Iraq

A speech by an ex-MI6 boss hints at a plan going back over a decade. In some areas, being Shia is akin to being a Jew in Nazi Germany, says Patrick Cockburn
The evolution of Andy Serkis: First Gollum, then King Kong - now the actor is swinging through the trees in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

The evolution of Andy Serkis

First Gollum, then King Kong - now the actor is swinging through the trees in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
You thought 'Benefits Street' was controversial: Follow-up documentary 'Immigrant Street' has got locals worried

You thought 'Benefits Street' was controversial...

Follow-up documentary 'Immigrant Street' has got locals worried
Refugee children from Central America let down by Washington's high ideals

Refugee children let down by Washington's high ideals

Democrats and Republicans refuse to set aside their differences to cope with the influx of desperate Central Americas, says Rupert Cornwell
Children's books are too white, says Laureate

Children's books are too white, says Laureate

Malorie Blackman appeals for a better ethnic mix of authors and characters and the illustrator Quentin Blake comes to the rescue
Blackest is the new black: Scientists have developed a material so dark that you can't see it...

Blackest is the new black

Scientists have developed a material so dark that you can't see it...
Matthew Barzun: America's diplomatic dude

Matthew Barzun: America's diplomatic dude

The US Ambassador to London holds 'jeans and beer' gigs at his official residence – it's all part of the job, he tells Chris Green
Meet the Quantified Selfers: From heart rates to happiness, there is little this fast-growing, self-tracking community won't monitor

Meet the 'Quantified Selfers'

From heart rates to happiness, there is little this fast-growing, self-tracking community won't monitor
Madani Younis: Five-star reviews are just the opening act for British theatre's first non-white artistic director

Five-star reviews are just the opening act for British theatre's first non-white artistic director

Madani Younis wants the neighbourhood to follow his work as closely as his audiences do
Mrs Brown and her boys: are they having a laugh?

Mrs Brown and her boys: are they having a laugh?

When it comes to national stereotyping, the Irish – among others – know it can pay to play up to outsiders' expectations, says DJ Taylor