John Curtice: Mr Duncan Smith isn't hated; he's just ignored

Many voters simply do not know whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with him as leader

Iain Duncan Smith can have hardly imagined a worse start to this conference. He might be forgiven for thinking that he was part of the Conservative problem, not part of the solution. So here are two bits of comfort for him. First: reports over the weekend that the Liberal Democrats are now neck and neck with the Tories were mistaken. And second: the Tory leader is not as unpopular as his predecessor, William Hague.

Contrary to the report in Sunday's News of the World, ICM's latest poll estimate, taken in the middle of last week, showed the Tories were still four points ahead of the Liberal Democrats – not "neck and neck". The paper forgot to take into account the adjustment procedures that are standard in ICM's polls.

Meanwhile, Mori's latest monthly survey shows that 39 per cent are dissatisfied with Mr Duncan Smith's leadership and only 22 per cent are satisfied – a net rating of minus 17 points. This is better than the minus 31 points rating that Mr Hague suffered at this stage in the last parliament.

Even so, the past fortnight has been disappointing for Mr Duncan Smith. Two weeks ago, the Tory barometer seemed set fair. ICM suggested the Labour lead was down to five points. Moreover, Labour's lead had not been more than 10 points for five months, the best spell for the Tories since Tony Blair became Labour leader in 1994.

Now things almost seem as bad as ever. While it may have been misreported, ICM's poll still gave the party its lowest rating since last year's general election – 27 per cent – while at 23 per cent the Liberal Democrats achieved their highest post-election score.

And while the Conservative Party may not be behind the Liberal Democrats, Mr Duncan Smith has fallen behind Charles Kennedy in the "best Prime Minister" stakes. In June Mr Duncan Smith was narrowly ahead of Mr Kennedy. But now, according to NOP, he trails by 19 points to 11.

Mr Kennedy has of course just enjoyed his annual week in the sun. He could be enjoying a post-conference bounce that will disappear as fast as autumn leaves. But these polls are a warning that the Liberal Democrats are a potential alternative home for disgruntled Labour voters.

The other aspect of the "yellow peril" for the Conservatives is not that the Liberal Democrats will claim their role as the opposition, but that Mr Kennedy's band will deny them the chance to become the government. Most of the 53 seats the Liberal Democrats now hold were originally gained from the Conservatives. Many have been turned by the Liberal Democrats from marginals into relatively safe seats. As a result these seats will not automatically return to the Conservative fold even if there is a revival in their national fortunes.

To avoid these dangers and reverse the recent damage Mr Duncan Smith needs to achieve two things. He has to show his party is a credible alternative to Labour. And he has to show that he personally can convey his party's message to voters.

Labour is certainly far from invulnerable. Voters are waiting for Labour to deliver. According to YouGov, 51 per cent think that public services have got worse under Labour, and only 17 per cent that they have got better. Mr Duncan Smith seems to have recognised this. For the past 12 months he and his Shadow Cabinet colleagues have been scouring Europe to come up with ideas for running public services better while largely dropping their obsession with tax cuts. But until now little flesh has been put on the bones of Mr Duncan Smith's "compassionate Conservatism" and it has so far failed to resonate with the public. They have not even heeded the message that the Tories now want to put the vulnerable first, let alone been convinced that the Conservatives could run public services better than Labour.

So the Conservatives have to explain convincingly how they would deliver better services. Trouble is, this task looks even tougher after Mr Blair's conference speech. By emphasising his willingness to improve things by using the private sector and developing a more diverse public sector, Mr Blair has stolen some of the clothes the Conservatives hoped to wear.

Mr Duncan Smith is not hated – he simply makes little impact on voters at all. According to Mori no less than 39 per cent still do not know whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with him as leader – only 29 per cent had no opinion of Mr Hague by this stage. Meanwhile yesterday's YouGov poll suggests voters simply do not see him as a leader at all – 70 per cent believe he is not really in charge, 69 per cent that he is not able to lead the nation, and 63 per cent that he lacks toughness.

Mr Duncan Smith has now to dispel those perceptions. For the last thing a party in need of a political makeover can afford is a leader whom voters simply ignore.

The author is Professor of politics at Strathclyde University