John Curtice: Was this the biggest shock in by-election history? Not quite...

 

Share
+More
Related Topics

"The most sensational result in British by-election history, bar none," was George Galloway's proud boast on being declared Bradford West's new MP. Well almost, and, perhaps more importantly, maybe not the most significant by-election success ever.

Click HERE to view 'In numbers: Bradford West' graphic

At 36.6 per cent, the swing from Labour to Respect was enormous. But it did not quite match Labour's worst-ever drubbing, the 44.2 per cent swing it suffered at the hands of Simon Hughes in Bermondsey in 1983. Indeed, the 20.4 point drop in Labour's own vote was quite modest by the standards of previous disasters, including the party's first ever defeat at the hands of the Scottish National Party in Hamilton in 1967 (-29.7) and its equally unexpected loss of Brent East (-29.4) to the Liberal Democrats shortly after the 2003 Iraq war.

Moreover, this was not the first time that someone other than a Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat managed to win an English post-war by-election. That accolade was claimed nearly 40 years ago by Dick Taverne when, following deselection, Lincoln's sitting Labour MP opted to resign his seat and defend it as "Democratic Labour". At 58.2 per cent, Mr Taverne's share of the vote was even slightly bigger than Mr Galloway's 55.9 per cent.

This was not the first time either that Bradford West's substantial Muslim population – second only in size to that in Bethnal Green and Bow – where Mr Galloway was elected for Respect in 2005 – has behaved unexpectedly. On the occasion of Labour's nationwide victory in 1997, the party's share of the vote fell in the constituency by nearly 12 points, seemingly because the Conservatives had nominated a Muslim candidate.

In truth, there are few other places where Mr Galloway's distinctive stance on Iraq, Afghanistan and the politics of the Arab world could have been expected to secure such a favourable reception. Equally, there are no other candidates on the far left with the charisma of Mr Galloway and who are likely to be capable of repeating his feat.

Even if both man and constituency are unique, the result still raises an intriguing question. Voters throughout Britain are showing an increasing willingness to vote for smaller parties. A record 10 per cent did so in 2010. In the Barnsley by-election last year, Ukip won 12 per cent and second place. Now that the Liberal Democrats are in no position to garner the protest vote, perhaps this is all disillusioned voters can do?

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University

Great by-election upsets

Hamilton (Nov 1967)

A milestone defeat for Labour saw the charismatic Winnie Ewing capture the Lanarkshire constituency for the Scottish National Party. The SNP had firmly arrived on the political map.

Lincoln (March 1973)

Labour's Dick Taverne forced this by-election when he quit the party over its anti-Common Market stance and contested it under the label Democratic Labour. He stormed home with 58 per cent support.

Bermondsey (Feb 1983)

At the depth of its fortunes, Labour chose the hard-Left, gay Peter Tatchell to defend its former south London stronghold. Liberal Simon Hughes won with a 44 per cent swing – and has held the seat ever since.

Brent East (Sept 2003)

Liberal Democrat Sarah Teather (now an Education minister) exploited anger in the multi-ethnic north-west London seat over the Iraq war to seize it from Labour with a 29 per cent swing.

React Now

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

SAP SD Consultant

£475 - £476 per day + negotiable: Progressive Recruitment: SAP SD Contract Con...

Maths Teacher- Reading

Negotiable: Randstad Education Reading: Our client in Sonning Common, is looki...

Science Teacher- Reading

Negotiable: Randstad Education Reading: Our client in Sonning Common, is looki...

Special Needs Teacher in Lewisham South London

£27000 - £55000 per annum: Randstad Education London: Supply special education...

Day In a Page

Read Next
 

The chasm that could swallow Cameron alive

Donald Macintyre
 

Politicians may choose to hide behind the EU, but the electorate will flush them out

Dominic Lawson
'There is a battle going on inside us that is never discussed'

Masculinity in crisis?

'There is a battle going on inside us that is never discussed'
Have US shock jocks gone too far?

Have US shock jocks gone too far?

An incendiary remark from Rush Limbaugh may be the beginning of the end for outspoken right-wing US broadcasters
The ‘Beverly Hills’ of Surrey pays more income tax than big cities of the North

The ‘Beverly Hills’ of Surrey

Elmbridge pays more income tax than big cities of the North
Heavenly Bodies

Heavenly Bodies

Michael Landy's artistic marriage made in heaven... and hell
'He will always be a friend': Jackie Stewart backs Polanski

'He will always be a friend'

Jackie Stewart backs Roman Polanski
The price of pacifism: Refusing to go to war is finally being recognised as a brave act

The price of pacifism

From the Second World War refusenik to the 19-year-old Israeli, Holly Williams talks to five people who risked shame and suffering to take a stand as conscientious objector.
'It was mass hysteria': Jason Isaacs on groupies, theatre bores and snogging James Bond

Jason Isaacs: Groupies, theatre bores and James Bond

To millions, Jason Isaacs is one of Harry Potter's arch enemies – but his wife prefers him as a Scottish TV detective.
Notes from a small island: Is Sealand an independent 'micronation' or an illegal fortress?

Sealand: 'Micronation' or illegal fortress?

Thomas Hodgkinson spent a week at the tiny platform off the Suffolk coast to find out.
Not a bad bone: Mark Hix cooks with cutlets and ribs

Mark Hix cooks with cutlets and ribs

If you ignore cutlets and ribs, you'll risk missing out on some delicious and easy meals, says our chef.
The experts' guide to summer: From getting fit for the beach to recreating that Olympic buzz

The experts' guide to summer

From getting fit for the beach to recreating that Olympic buzz
Sex, drugs and fast cars: The legend of James Hunt has set Hollywood hearts racing

Legend of James Hunt has set Hollywood hearts racing

Early glimpses of Ron Howard's film Rush suggest it will portray Hunt as a high-living lothario, with an insatiable appetite for partying.
Macklemore: 'I don't have moderation when using drugs and alcohol. It was hurting my life'

Macklemore: 'I don't have moderation'

The next Vanilla Ice or the next Eminem? Macklemore doesn't have a record contract – but he does have the UK's biggest-selling single of the year.
Don't be shy: Bill Granger's Sri Lankan recipes

Don't be shy: Bill Granger's Sri Lankan recipes

Sri Lankan cuisine is light, sunny, wonderfully spiced – and so easy to cook from scratch. Just as soon as you've broken into the coconut, that is.
Sir James Dyson’s latest project: Cleaning up hospitals

Sir James Dyson’s latest project: Cleaning up hospitals

Doctors are hailing the revamp of a Bath neonatal unit, where babies sleep more and feed better, as the model for patient care
One man returns to Argentina's town that drowned

One man returns to Argentina's town that drowned

Epecuen was submerged under 10 metres of water in 1985. Now the floods have gone – and 83-year-old Pablo Novak has moved back in