Julian Hunt: Stay local to beat global warming

It is not hard to see why pessimism over climate change has been growing. But I believe we are reaching the point when the tide will decisively turn

Share
Related Topics

Since the collapse of the landmark Copenhagen Summit last December, there has appeared to be setback after setback for those who, like me, believe climate change is the most serious problem facing mankind.

Most recently, the US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this week decided to withdraw a landmark cap-and-trade bill in recognition of its lack of support in the chamber. This effectively means that there will be no major US federal climate change initiative until at least after the 2012 presidential election.

This follows the confused misrepresentation of climate trends, especially by the Republicans and some British politicians, which appears to have sown further confusion among international publics about global warming complexity; this misunderstanding accounts, in part, for some global warming scepticism and indeed some of the confusion of "Climategate".

Meanwhile, evidence continues to mount that our planet is heating up, including the authoritative State of the Climate Report 2009 released this week by the US National Oceanic and Atmosphere Office (featuring data from the British Met Office). This shows, for the first time, multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and concludes that "global warming is undeniable".

Given this backdrop, it is not hard to see why pessimism has grown this year about the future of international efforts to tackle climate change. However, far from this being the disaster that some assert, I believe that we are rapidly reaching the point when the tide will decisively turn. Why the reasons for such optimism amid so much apparent gloom?

First, there is now a much underappreciated movement towards the adoption of nuclear energy across the world. Despite the lack of recognition in the final Copenhagen communiqué, it is estimated by the International Atomic Agency that some 50 countries will have built nuclear reactors by 2030. This will result in a significant shift in the global energy mix and, while nuclear will continue to have vociferous critics, its virtue in the battle against climate change is as unquestionable as renewables such as wind and solar.

Second, in the absence of both a new global climate change deal to replace Kyoto, and more decisive national action by preponderant countries such as the United States, it is now much clearer than even a few months ago at Copenhagen that the centre of gravity of decision-making on how we respond to climate change must move towards the sub-national level, including to those many US cities which are leading the battle against global warming in North America.

The need for such a paradigm shift from a "top-down" to a "bottom-up" approach is becoming clearer by the day. For instance, over the last decade, while the earth's land and sea surface has been warming overall, trends of weather and climate records reveal larger and more unusual local variations – some unprecedented since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. What these data patterns underline is that, while climate change is a reality, it is impacting regions and indeed sub-regions of the world in very different ways. More openness and clarity is needed about this huge complexity as it accounts, in part, for some global warming scepticism.

It is within this crucial context that sub-national governments across the world, including cities, are putting into practice the fact that adaptation needs to build on existing knowledge and infrastructures in local settings. Forming loose collaborative networks is enabling regional facilitation centres, their experts and decision-makers to learn from one another and also draw upon the resources of existing national and international databases and programmes, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) and the growing number of consortia linking major cities, local governments, and the private sector.

Experience shows that this bottom-up approach works very effectively as it is only generally when sub-national areas, such as cities, learn how they will be specifically affected by climate change that widespread, grassroots political action can be aroused.

I am therefore delighted at the increasing numbers of regional monitoring centres across the world, which are contributing towards local adaptation plans. In China, where provinces require targets for power station construction, regional environmental and climate change centres are now well developed. In the US, reports have highlighted the value of non-official centres, such as a severe storm centre in Oklahoma, which gives independent advice to communities and businesses, while relying on government programmes for much of the data. In Brazil, regional centres are providing data and predictions about agriculture and deforestation, and inform legislation about policy options.

What this activity points to is the need for a broader global network of such centres to support national climate initiatives, and to facilitate international funding and technical cooperation in delivering the right information to the right place at the right time.

Local actions can only be effective if measurements of climate and environment are made regularly and are publicised as well as information about targets, and projections of emissions. Experience shows that full exposure is needed about what is happening, what is planned, and how every individual can be involved (as the Danes show, for instance, by their community investment in wind power).

Taken overall, and despite recent setbacks such as the demise of the US cap-and-trade bill, I am therefore increasingly optimistic that the tide is turning decisively in favour of tackling climate change, but that it will be the cumulative effect of sub-national actions which will prove crucial in determining the speed and effectiveness of responses to climate change. While international and national policy will still have a key role to play, the message is nonetheless clear: "localisation of action and data" must and will increasingly be the priority in tackling the global warming menace.

Lord Hunt is Visiting Professor at Delft University and former director-general of the UK Met Office

React Now

Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Maths Teacher

£110 - £200 per day: Randstad Education Leeds: Secondary Maths Teacher for spe...

Business Analyst - Surrey - Permanent - Up to £50k DOE

£40000 - £50000 Per Annum Excellent benefits: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd:...

***ASP.NET Developer - Cheshire - £35k - Permanent***

£30000 - £35000 Per Annum Excellent benefits: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd:...

***Solutions Architect*** - Brighton - £40k - Permanent

£35000 - £40000 Per Annum Excellent benefits: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd:...

Day In a Page

Read Next
Women are working in some of the lowest-paid sectors such as cleaning, catering and caring  

Women's wages have gone backwards. Labour would give women the pay they deserve

Gloria de Piero
 

Taking on Ukip requires a delicate balancing act for both main parties

Andrew Grice
Wilko Johnson, now the bad news: musician splits with manager after police investigate assault claims

Wilko Johnson, now the bad news

Former Dr Feelgood splits with manager after police investigate assault claims
Mark Udall: The Democrat Senator with a fight on his hands ahead of the US midterm elections

Mark Udall: The Democrat Senator with a fight on his hands

The Senator for Colorado is for gay rights, for abortion rights – and in the Republicans’ sights as they threaten to take control of the Senate next month
New discoveries show more contact between far-flung prehistoric humans than had been thought

New discoveries show more contact between far-flung prehistoric humans than had been thought

Evidence found of contact between Easter Islanders and South America
Cerys Matthews reveals how her uncle taped 150 interviews for a biography of Dylan Thomas

Cerys Matthews on Dylan Thomas

The singer reveals how her uncle taped 150 interviews for a biography of the famous Welsh poet
DIY is not fun and we've finally realised this as a nation

Homebase closures: 'DIY is not fun'

Homebase has announced the closure of one in four of its stores. Nick Harding, who never did know his awl from his elbow, is glad to see the back of DIY
The Battle of the Five Armies: Air New Zealand releases new Hobbit-inspired in-flight video

Air New Zealand's wizard in-flight video

The airline has released a new Hobbit-inspired clip dubbed "The most epic safety video ever made"
Pumpkin spice is the flavour of the month - but can you stomach the sweetness?

Pumpkin spice is the flavour of the month

The combination of cinnamon, clove, nutmeg (and no actual pumpkin), now flavours everything from lattes to cream cheese in the US
11 best sonic skincare brushes

11 best sonic skincare brushes

Forget the flannel - take skincare to the next level by using your favourite cleanser with a sonic facial brush
Paul Scholes column: I'm not worried about Manchester United's defence - Chelsea test can be the making of Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo

Paul Scholes column

I'm not worried about Manchester United's defence - Chelsea test can be the making of Jones and Rojo
Frank Warren: Boxing has its problems but in all my time I've never seen a crooked fight

Frank Warren: Boxing has its problems but in all my time I've never seen a crooked fight

While other sports are stalked by corruption, we are an easy target for the critics
Jamie Roberts exclusive interview: 'I'm a man of my word – I'll stay in Paris'

Jamie Roberts: 'I'm a man of my word – I'll stay in Paris'

Wales centre says he’s not coming home but is looking to establish himself at Racing Métro
How could three tourists have been battered within an inch of their lives by a burglar in a plush London hotel?

A crime that reveals London's dark heart

How could three tourists have been battered within an inch of their lives by a burglar in a plush London hotel?
Meet 'Porridge' and 'Vampire': Chinese state TV is offering advice for citizens picking a Western moniker

Lost in translation: Western monikers

Chinese state TV is offering advice for citizens picking a Western moniker. Simon Usborne, who met a 'Porridge' and a 'Vampire' while in China, can see the problem
Handy hacks that make life easier: New book reveals how to rid your inbox of spam, protect your passwords and amplify your iPhone

Handy hacks that make life easier

New book reveals how to rid your email inbox of spam, protect your passwords and amplify your iPhone with a loo-roll
KidZania lets children try their hands at being a firefighter, doctor or factory worker for the day

KidZania: It's a small world

The new 'educational entertainment experience' in London's Shepherd's Bush will allow children to try out the jobs that are usually undertaken by adults, including firefighter, doctor or factory worker