Rupert Cornwell: Out of America

Are baby boomers worried? They should be

Share
+More

One of life's modestly depressing milestones is the moment you first find yourself living in a country with a leader younger than you. It happened for me in 1993 during my first stint in America for this newspaper, when Bill Clinton, six months my junior, became President.

When I went back to London in April 1997, it got even worse, in the shape of a ridiculously youthful Tony Blair - at 43, two years younger than Clinton when he was elected. My remaining illusions of vast promise about to be fulfilled were banished. Nor was there any escape when I returned to the US, now under the management of George W Bush. He too was younger than me.

I mention all this because last Thursday was Bush's 60th birthday. He, Clinton and I - as well as luminaries such as Sylvester Stallone, Diane Keaton and Donald Trump - are all 1946ers, in the vanguard of the mighty army of baby boomers who will hit the big Six-O during the next 18 years.

One way and another, Bush is quite a suitable representative of our generation. Baby boomers are said to have had it easy, and to feel entitled to the good life in a way their parents never did. Bush qualifies in spades on both counts.

You may not approve of how he got elected President, and still less of how he does the job. But you have to admire the self-discipline that has kept him off the booze these past two decades. Thanks to that, to mountain biking and to inordinate chopping of brush at his Texas ranch, he's probably fitter than most people half his age. And he seems to be handling this birthday pretty well. "Sixty's a lot younger than you think," Bush joked at the White House after talks with the Canadian Prime Minister on the big day.

Look at it another way, however, and this presidential birthday is the first sign of a mighty storm ahead. In a couple of years, Bush must step down. He'll be fine, what with a annual government pension of $183,500 (£100,000) and a host of other benefits under the 1958 Former Presidents Act.

Most of us won't be so fortunate. A financial time bomb is ticking under America, primed to explode when the baby boomers start to retire en masse: 78 million of them will turn 65 between 2011 and 2030, each set to receive more than $30,000 (£16,500) a year in state pension and medical benefits. If they do so, they will break the national bank. Over the next 30 years the likely future expenses of the government will exceed tax receipts by $63 trillion - or five years' output of the US economy.

To square the circle, income tax would have to rise by 70 per cent, or benefits paid under Social Security (the state pension scheme) and the Medicare health programme would have to be halved. That won't happen - but nor can the US, the biggest debtor on earth, continue for ever to borrow from foreigners and from its own citizens to keep up baby boomers' living standards. Which leaves the job to the printing presses of the US Mint and a surge in inflation.

When he introduced Social Security in the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt told his countrymen that it alone would not look after retirement needs, and they should see it as one leg of a three-legged stool. The two other legs being company pension schemes, and individual savings.

Today, all three legs are coming loose. Bush did have a stab last year at reforming Social Security - with a system of private savings accounts. But that was to touch the electric "third rail" of US politics. Bush did so, with the predictable result. The idea that was supposed to be his crowning domestic policy glory died ignominiously, the first disaster of an increasingly disastrous second term.

Company pensions fare little better. Faced with soaring costs and fierce foreign competition, US businesses see the once sacrosanct defined pension scheme as a fashion accessory to be ditched under a court-supervised bankruptcy reorganisation. Airlines and steel companies have done it, General Motors may follow. And the government corporation that is supposed to guarantee the pensions is itself all but bankrupt.

As for savings - forget it. For the first time ever, the net US savings rate went negative this year. Americans are eating into savings to finance their spending. Happy birthday, George; but for the rest of us the same age, there may not be too many more down the line.

React Now

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

PHP/ Drupal Developer - £35k - WC

£30000 - £40000 per annum + BENS: Progressive Recruitment: Drupal Developer A ...

C# WEB DEVELOPER

£45000 - £50000 per annum + bens: Progressive Recruitment: C# WEB DEVELOPER Le...

WPF Developer (C#, VB.Net) - North East - 6 Months

£240 - £260 per day: Progressive Recruitment: WPF Developer (C#, VB.Net) North...

KS2 PPA teacher

£85 - £120 per day: Randstad Education Cheshire: KS2 teacher needed to do PPA ...

Day In a Page

Read Next
An auctioneer receives bids for Gerhard Richter's work 'Abstraktes Bild' during the Sotheby's London Evening Sale of Contemporary Art held at Sotheby's, New Bond Street, London.  

Arts funding is going, going – and if we don't think of alternatives, it will soon be gone

David Lister
 

Here is the perfect illustration of how a picture can change a book for you

Tom Sutcliffe
The price of pacifism: Refusing to go to war is finally being recognised as a brave act

The price of pacifism

From the Second World War refusenik to the 19-year-old Israeli, Holly Williams talks to five people who risked shame and suffering to take a stand as conscientious objector.
'It was mass hysteria': Jason Isaacs on groupies, theatre bores and snogging James Bond

Jason Isaacs: Groupies, theatre bores and James Bond

To millions, Jason Isaacs is one of Harry Potter's arch enemies – but his wife prefers him as a Scottish TV detective.
Notes from a small island: Is Sealand an independent 'micronation' or an illegal fortress?

Sealand: 'Micronation' or illegal fortress?

Thomas Hodgkinson spent a week at the tiny platform off the Suffolk coast to find out.
Not a bad bone: Mark Hix cooks with cutlets and ribs

Mark Hix cooks with cutlets and ribs

If you ignore cutlets and ribs, you'll risk missing out on some delicious and easy meals, says our chef.
Sir James Dyson’s latest project: Cleaning up hospitals

Sir James Dyson’s latest project: Cleaning up hospitals

Doctors are hailing the revamp of a Bath neonatal unit, where babies sleep more and feed better, as the model for patient care
One man returns to Argentina's town that drowned

One man returns to Argentina's town that drowned

Epecuen was submerged under 10 metres of water in 1985. Now the floods have gone – and 83-year-old Pablo Novak has moved back in
The real thing? Historian publishes Coca Cola's 'secret formula'

The real thing?

Historian publishes Coca Cola's 'secret formula'
Gordon Ramsey's worst nightmare: A restaurant he cannot save

Gordon Ramsay's worst nightmare: A restaurant he cannot save

The pugnacious chef finally met a shambolic restaurant he couldn't save. John Walsh on when TV makover refuseniks fight back
Join Ryanair! See the world! But we're only paying you for nine months a year

Join Ryanair! See the world! But we're only paying you for nine months a year

Glamorous myth of the flight attendant lifestyle undermined by angry employee's claims of 'exploitation'
Braising saddles: Did the recent furore scupper sales of horse meat? Neigh, far from it!

Braising saddles: How to cook horse meat

Did the recent furore scupper sales of horse meat? Neigh, far from it! Will Coldwell hoofs it to the kitchen.
Why bitters are back on the bar: A few little drops pack a big punch in cocktails

Why bitters are back on the bar

A few little drops pack a big punch in cocktails. No wonder we're learning to love them again...
The 10 Best barbecues

The 10 Best barbecues

Whether you're cooking on gas or are a convert to charcoal we've got the perfect way to cook when the sun is out.
Style icon David Beckham calls time on his long retirement

Style icon calls time on his long retirement

David Beckham never disgraced himself but former England captain ceased to be a major player years ago. Remember him at his United peak
Steve Harper: My darkest times

Steve Harper: My darkest times

As the popular Newcastle goalkeeper bows out after 20 years at the club, he tells Martin Hardy about the private battle with depression that threatened his career
Sir Torquil Norman has designed a flat-pack OX truck for the developing world

The flat-pack truck with big ambitions

After making a fortune from Polly Pocket and a doll's house shaped like a teapot, the entrepreneur has turned his creativity to a transporter truck for the developing world. Simon Usborne meets him.