Parliament votes to go round in circles – and saves the death of no-deal Brexit for another day

Despite some principled legislators working hard in the national interest, the Commons is simply incapable of forming a view of what it wants

After another day of “crunch” votes and fantasy Brexits, the House of Commons has decided to send the prime minister on another hopeless errand to Brussels. As Robert the Bruce never quite said: If at first they don’t concede, fly, fly, and fly again.

The person who knows best, at least on this side of the English Channel, what the European Union will, might and will not accept in the way of legally binding changes to the UK-EU withdrawal agreement recently said this: “No such alternative deal exists. The political declaration sets the framework for the future relationship, and the next phase of the negotiations will be our chance to shape that relationship. But we cannot begin those talks unless or until we agree the terms of our withdrawal. The European Union will not agree to any other deal for that withdrawal.”

Theresa May said that, about a fortnight ago, and, to borrow a much-used expression, “nothing has changed” since. The House of Commons, as the prime minister freely admits, has spoken since then, loud and clear. But that has not necessarily altered policy in the EU, nor resolved the logical question of how to sit outside a neighbouring customs union and maintain a friction-free border, as in Ireland. Hence the backstop.

The vote won for the Brady amendment, whereby the prime minister is given a negotiating remit that she previously dismissed as unworkable, hardly represents a mandate. In truth, it is yet another opportunity for the Commons to defer making the tough choices that will be needed to save the economy and avoid hard Brexit – which the vast majority of them wish to do.

All of which leaves parliament, as for far too long, going round in circles.

Many voices in the House of Commons call for “compromise”. Some enterprising souls, such as housing minister Kit Malthouse, ex-Remainer Nicky Morgan and arch Leaver Jacob Rees-Mogg are attempting to create the most contrived packages. The Wodehousian-sounding Mogg-Morgan-Malthouse compromise is merely the latest unicorn to trot on to the political stage – calling again for the abolition of the Irish “backstop” plus a longer delay for Article 50. Utterly futile.

Parliament, despite some principled legislators working hard in the national interest, is simply incapable of forming a view of what it does want, or at least of opting for a realistic policy. Ms May used to say that her deal is the only deal on the table, and that it cannot be amended. Even if it could though, it was never the only deal on the table in any case – it has to be compared with the deal we already enjoy from EU membership.

So: decision postponed.

The next step, logically, is to refer the choices available to the public. They have a democratic right to give their full-hearted consent to the terms of Brexit in any event, and should able to exercise that right whatever parliament does, and, indeed whatever the EU now does.

Apart from Ms May’s desperate attempt to find common ground between Jacob Rees-Mogg and Jean-Claude Juncker, the United Kingdom has no European policy – with only 59 days – before it is due to leave the European Union. Even if everything were agreed now, there are 600 statutory instruments and six substantial bills to enact to keep our laws in force. The 29 March deadline is unfeasible. It is well beyond a joke.

The priority is to reassure neighbours, the public, business and allies around the world by ruling out a no-deal Brexit as soon as possible. The narrow defeat of the Cooper-Boles amendment represented a missed opportunity to do just that – but not the last one. The Labour MPs who failed to support it will need to explain themselves.

The only MPs who can be said to believe in “no deal” are the members of the Conservative European Research Group, and perhaps a few other strays. At their very maximum extent, as indicated by the personal vote of confidence in Theresa May and by the various votes on Brexit, they can muster about 120 MPs to their cause.

The rest of the 650 of our representatives are against that scenario, viewing it with varying degrees of horror. That is a majority even larger than the one that chucked out the prime minister’s deal a few weeks ago – a hypothetical majority of more than 400. They are well represented in Ms May’s cabinet – Amber Rudd, Philip Hammond, David Gauke, Greg Clark – and backed by a score of ministers.

Sooner or later – surely – that voice will be heard. As shown by the Spelman-Dromey amendment, a defeat for the government, MPs are willing to send clear warnings that they will not support a no-deal Brexit. The amendment had no legal force but significant political force. In time the opportunity to deliver a genuine blow will present itself. In that sense, despite appearances, Brexit is already dead – or soon will be.