Doug Jones's victory in Alabama could be a turning point for the Democrats’ fortunes

The first victory for a Democrat in a state-wide contest in a quarter of a century, in a place where Mr Trump defeated Hilary Clinton by a 30-percentage-point margin, cannot be dismissed

Doug Jones at the election night party in Birmingham, Alabama (Reuters)

Only someone with an ego as gargantuan as Donald Trump could claim the credit for the victory of a political opponent, and against a candidate that Mr Trump himself had loudly and publicly backed. That Mr Trump took to Twitter to do so was even less of a surprise. Nothing, it seems, on Planet Trump can be seen to go wrong.

Everyone knows, though, that something did go badly wrong for the President and the Republican Party in a by-election in Alabama. A deeply flawed Republican candidate lost a vital seat in the Senate, a vacancy caused, ironically enough, by President Trump’s appointment of the last incumbent, Jeff Sessions, to the post of Attorney-General. A conventional modern Democrat, Doug Jones took the seat – a truly historic moment, given that many past southern Democrats, the so-called Dixiecrats, were segregationist and conservative. Mr Jones had prosecuted the Ku Klux Klan and supports the Paris Agreement on climate change, renounced by President Trump.

The allegations against Roy Moore were many and varied, though all unpleasant, and there is no doubt that there were special factors at work in this bitterly fought election. Even so, the first victory for a Democrat in a state-wide contest in a quarter of a century, in a place where Mr Trump defeated Hilary Clinton by a 30-percentage-point margin, cannot be dismissed. After all, former Trump campaign chief and White House adviser Steve Bannon was shipped in to try to make sure that the seat stayed in the Republican column, but to little avail.

From now on the Republican establishment, which Mr Trump and his allies openly despise, will retain its grip on the legislature and the party machine. Had Mr Moore won, then the Republican Leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, would have been embarrassed, and life would have been difficult for him. As things now stand, he and his fellow travellers may feel that the Trump bandwagon has at least stalled.

It cannot all be blamed on Mr Bannon, however. Mr Trump, given his track record, was probably the last useful ally that Mr Moore could have had in attempting to move attention away from the claims made about his private life. Mr Trump has certainly enjoyed some political successes recently. His tax plans have been approved by Congress, the courts seem willing to allow him to progress with his illogical restrictions on Muslim people travelling to the US, and – no great effort required for this – he has successfully picked a needless fight with Iran over its nuclear programme. However, he has shown little sign of delivering on other key pledges, such as repealing and replacing Obamacare, and little on bringing jobs back to the United States and “making American great again”. For that, and for the well-publicised links and collusion between his campaign and the Russians, he was duly punished.

A year on from Mr Trump’s unexpected electoral victory in the presidential election, and a year ahead of the mid-term Senate elections, the prospects for Mr Trump are looking miserable. If he loses many more Senate seats next November, he will find it even more difficult to pass the legislation he will need to have much hope of securing a second term, and remaining in office until he reaches the grand age of 78, assuming the impeachment process and the voters spare him.

Unpopular and a political fraud, it will not be enough for America’s Democrats to sit back and wait for victory in 2020 to fall into their laps. If the recent history of the party shows anything, it is that complacency is the Democrats’ worst enemy. Next year for the Senate and in 2020 for the presidential contest, the Democrats will need to capitalise on their current regeneration and start campaigning hard to make Mr Trump look like a loser. All they really need are some attractive candidates and workable policies that answer the concerns of the “left behind” Americans who felt they had no choice but to vote for Trump.

Alabama, of all places, proved that the Trump is not invincible, an important psychological barrier to break. It may even prove to be a turning point.