Europe must draw the right lessons from this election

Apart from the Swedish Social Democrats, perhaps the person who should be most pleased about their re-election is the leader of the German Social Democrats, Gerhard Schröder. For, as Goran Persson, his Swedish counterpart, pointed out, much of the significance of this election for the centre-left in Europe lies in its psychological effect, a feeling that a seemingly unstoppable trend to the right has been halted. Yet, while we may raise a glass of aquavit to toast Mr Persson's success, we should also reflect on some of the more disturbing developments in this important election.

What is most striking is the rise of the Swedish Liberal Party, which has tripled its share of the vote to 13 per cent. These Liberals are not liberal; this is a party that campaigned against immigration and the integration of foreigners, and was duly rewarded. In that respect the Swedes are not so very different to their Danish and Norwegian neighbours, and indeed the Dutch and the French, who have all seen the rise of small, but significant, anti-immigration parties. Indeed, in some of those cases the real damage has been done not so much to the left as to the moderate right.

It all makes for an intriguing backdrop to the German elections that take place this Sunday. True, the far right in Germany, in marked contrast to that of Austria, has mercifully stayed in its cage. Even so, there are some disturbing signs that Edmund Stoiber, the leader of the Christian Democrats, may use this last week of campaigning to play the race card.

He may feel that he now has little to lose, as Mr Schröder seems to have regained the momentum and will probably be able, like Mr Persson, to reconstruct his left-leaning coalition (although without the participation of former Communists).

If Mr Stoiber does try to exploit the immigration/asylum issue, it will be a case of his putting party before country, for the correct lesson to draw from European politics over the last few years is that appeasing the racist right serves only to encourage them. Moderate parties, of the left or right, can never outflank them. Let us hope that Germany does not have to learn that the hard way.