Leading article: Only part of the way to resolving the euro crisis

All of Europe cannot be cut back at once without sucking the life out of the economy

Share
Related Topics

Storm clouds are once again massing over the eurozone, and this time the problems are political. Europe's febrile bond markets have been calmer in recent months, thanks to the agreement of a "fiscal pact" requiring governments to limit their debts. But public backing for the painful deficit-reduction programmes needed to meet such targets is waning, taking support for mainstream political parties with it. And with elections in Greece and France this weekend – and in the Netherlands in a few months' time – the political consensus on how to tackle the crisis is in danger of unravelling. The consequences would be catastrophic.

It was Spain that hit the headlines last week. Not only is the Spanish economy back in recession, but one in four are out of work and, after another downgrade, the Government's credit rating is just three notches above junk status. Although bond yields are not yet unequivocally in the danger zone, they are steadily rising, and few expect Madrid to deliver its fiscal plan.

But Mariano Rajoy is not the only leader facing a restive electorate losing its appetite for austerity. In Italy, Mario Monti's popularity is also fading fast, and in the Netherlands – one of only a handful of EU countries with a triple-A credit rating – the minority government was this month toppled by a spat over cuts. Meanwhile, François Hollande, currently tipped to beat incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy to the French presidency, has pledged to re-negotiate the fiscal pact to promote growth as well as limit borrowing. And in Greece – where a fifth consecutive year of recession is set to slash another 5 per cent off the economy in 2012 – voters' disaffection is such that Sunday's elections may produce a coalition so fragmented it struggles to govern.

Neither is the scepticism restricted to the eurozone. Last week's evidence that Britain too has slipped back into recession has led to a chorus of unfavourable contrasts with the economic growth in the un-austere US. In fact, such comparisons are too simplistic, overlooking both the security offered by the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and the debt trouble Washington is storing up for the future. But the implications of the first real test of support for the coalition's economic strategy are no less significant for all that.

In economic terms, the austerity problem is easy to diagnose: reduced government spending threatens to create a downward spiral of cuts, recession, and more cuts. The solution is also easy to identify: private sector growth. But it is tricky to deliver while businesses lack confidence and bank lending remains sclerotic; and the traditional Keynesian remedy of turning on the government taps is simply not available. Any softening of deficit reduction plans will cause panic in the bond markets.

There is a glimmer of good news amid the gloom. Recent remarks from both Mario Draghi at the ECB and Herman van Rompuy, the head of the European Council, on the need for a co-ordinated growth policy suggest the message may, finally, be getting through to top European policymakers. But long-term reforms to boost the single market, while welcome, will not meet the immediate challenge.

There are other options. The German Chancellor is not wrong to stress fiscal co-ordination and strict controls on borrowing. But if all cut back at once it will suck the life out of the whole European economy, as we are already seeing. While those countries that are struggling to stay afloat have no option but to slash their spending, their more solvent counterparts – such as Germany and the Netherlands – should be upping their borrowing, boosting demand and helping pull the whole bloc out of recession, throwing a political lifeline to debt-reduction plans in the process. Until then, the storms in Europe are far from over.

React Now

Latest stories from i100
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Bookkeeper

£23000 - £26000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This small, friendly, proactive...

Recruitment Genius: Photographic Event Crew

£14500 - £22800 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is a fantastic opportunity...

Recruitment Genius: Software Developers - .NET / ASP.NET / WebAPI / JavaScript

Negotiable: Recruitment Genius: A Software Developer is required to join a lea...

Austen Lloyd: Corporate Tax Solicitor - City

Excellent Salary: Austen Lloyd: A first rate opportunity to join a top ranking...

Day In a Page

Read Next
 

After Savile, we must devote our energies to stopping the child abuse taking place now

Mary Dejevsky
A ‘hugely irritated’ Sir Malcolm Rifkind on his way home from Parliament on Monday  

Before rushing to criticise Malcolm Rifkind, do you know how much being an MP can cost?

Isabel Hardman
HIV pill: Scientists hail discovery of 'game-changer' that cuts the risk of infection among gay men by 86%

Scientists hail daily pill that protects against HIV infection

Breakthrough in battle against global scourge – but will the NHS pay for it?
How we must adjust our lifestyles to nature: Welcome to the 'Anthropocene', the human epoch

Time to play God

Welcome to the 'Anthropocene', the human epoch where we may need to redefine nature itself
MacGyver returns, but with a difference: Handyman hero of classic 1980s TV series to be recast as a woman

MacGyver returns, but with a difference

Handyman hero of classic 1980s TV series to be recast as a woman
Tunnel renaissance: Why cities are hiding roads down in the ground

Tunnel renaissance

Why cities are hiding roads underground
'Backstreet Boys - Show 'Em What You're Made Of': An affectionate look at five middle-aged men

Boys to men

The Backstreet Boys might be middle-aged, married and have dodgy knees, but a heartfelt documentary reveals they’re not going gently into pop’s good night
Crufts 2015: Should foreign dogs be allowed to compete?

Crufts 2015

Should foreign dogs be allowed to compete?
10 best projectors

How to make your home cinema more cinematic: 10 best projectors

Want to recreate the big-screen experience in your sitting room? IndyBest sizes up gadgets to form your film-watching
Manchester City 1 Barcelona 2 player ratings: Luis Suarez? Lionel Messi? Joe Hart? Who was the star man?

Manchester City vs Barcelona player ratings

Luis Suarez? Lionel Messi? Joe Hart? Who was the star man at the Etihad?
Arsenal vs Monaco: Monaco - the making of Gunners' manager Arsene Wenger

Monaco: the making of Wenger

Jack Pitt-Brooke speaks to former players and learns the Frenchman’s man-management has always been one of his best skills
Cricket World Cup 2015: Chris Gayle - the West Indies' enigma lives up to his reputation

Chris Gayle: The West Indies' enigma

Some said the game's eternal rebel was washed up. As ever, he proved he writes the scripts by producing a blistering World Cup innings
In Ukraine a dark world of hybrid warfare and murky loyalties prevails

In Ukraine a dark world of hybrid warfare

This war in the shadows has been going on since the fall of Mr Yanukovych
'Birdman' and 'Bullets Over Broadway': Homage or plagiarism?

Homage or plagiarism?

'Birdman' shares much DNA with Woody Allen's 'Bullets Over Broadway'
Broadchurch ends as damp squib not even David Tennant can revive

A damp squib not even David Tennant can revive

Broadchurch, Series 2 finale, review
A Koi carp breeding pond, wall-mounted iPads and a bathroom with a 'wellness' shower: inside the mansion of Germany's 'Bishop of Bling'

Inside the mansion of Germany's 'Bishop of Bling'

A Koi carp breeding pond, wall-mounted iPads and a bathroom with a 'wellness' shower