The pundits' final predictions: will it be Obama or Romney?


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The Independent Online

It's not only the reputations of Messrs Romney and Obama on the line tonight - across the US pundits have staked their credibility on predictions of how the final result will fall. The Washington Post has a roundup.

Eleven of the 19 pundits highlighted believe tonight's vote will see Obama return to office.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 303, Romney 235. "The model estimates that Mr. Romney would need to win the national popular vote by about one percentage point to avert a tossup, or a loss, in the Electoral College," Silver writes.

Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248. “I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren’t likely.”

Dean Chambers, Romney 311, Obama 227. “Many others in the media project very favorable maps and projections for Obama but those doing so fail to realize or accept how heavily-skewed polls distort any average or analysis that relies on them.”

Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory. “For two reasons,” Cost writes. “(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again. (2) Romney leads among independents.”

Who do you think will take up that seat in the Oval office for the next four years?