Letter: A tide of cash for flood damage

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The Independent Online
Sir: I read Bill Burroughs' Science article ('And today's forecast is . . . chaotic', 10 January) with great interest, particularly the following:

The quality of the (weather) forecasts is sometimes highly sensitive to the uncertainties in measuring the initial state of the atmosphere. This variation in performance tends to reflect whether the atmosphere is in transition between quasi-stationary states or is stuck in one mode . . . it is possible to get a much better fix on when the weather is in a predictable regime.

I take this to mean that it is much easier to predict the weather when it is predictable; when it is unpredictable, however, it is markedly harder to make predictions about it.

As the hitherto ignorant author of Bluff Your Way in Weather Forecasting I find this very comforting indeed.



Newbury, Dorset

10 January