Interestingly, in the light of your earlier report on the battle for the Labour nomination in Swindon North, that seat provides the best example of the scope for disagreement. Using local election results (the BBC/ITN method) suggests a Labour lead of almost 1,000; basing the estimate on changes to the socio-economic composition of the seat (our method) indicates a Conservative majority of over 7,000.
Estimating the outcome of hypothetical contests is an inexact science.
Professor Ron Johnston
Dr Dave Rossiter
Department of Geography, University of Bristol
Dr Charles Pattie
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield