Letter: Flawed figures

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The Independent Online
Sir: M C Fitzpatrick's letter (5 December) attempting to predict the result of the election is fundamentally flawed, because it takes no account of the probability distribution of the possible outcomes that are described.

The writer commits the error of assuming that the outcome with the widest range (Labour gaining 11 to 54 seats) is also the most probable outcome. This ignores voting trends and opinion polls.

SAMUEL BOOTE

Nottingham

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