Who would be hit hardest by no-deal Brexit – Britain or the EU?

Politics Explained: Ireland is vulnerable thanks to the knock-on effects from the UK, but has the EU27 on its side

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay has claimed Ireland would be hit harder than the UK by a no-deal – and that will force the EU back to the negotiating table. There are also reports that the EU is proposing a massive aid plan for Ireland to cushion any blow.

The case of whether the UK or EU would do worse out of a no-deal is very clear cut. Every serious prediction suggests the UK would do much, much worse.

The IMF World Economic Outlook 2019 estimates that a WTO Brexit would slash UK GDP by between 3.7 per cent and 4.9 per cent, while the Bank of England’s November 2018 forecast estimate suggests a reduction of between 4.75 and 7.75 per cent over five years.