Almeria in southern Spain is one of the areas that could be most affected by desertification
(
AFP
)
Spain and Portugal could be hit by “megadroughts” lasting for many years by the end of the century, according to climate models.
If the worst projections are correct, the area could see a 15-year period of rainfall at less than half the average level.
Researchers from Newcastle University selected a total of 15 different climate models used by leading scientific bodies around the world, including Nasa, the Met Office and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.
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They found that, while the models produced a range of different results, “extreme future droughts” were predicted by ones which could accurately simulate what had happened in the past.
Portugal has been hit by eight major droughts since the 1940s, with the most intense taking place from 2004 to 2006.
Spain has seen three major droughts – the latest of which spanned 1990 to 1995 – affecting most of the country, with rainfall reduced by up to 30 per cent, but has also experienced a number of smaller ones more recently.
The researchers examined the three main river basins of the Iberian Peninsula, the Tagus, Douro and Guadiana.
“However they strongly disagree on the magnitude of these changes.
“Some project small increases in drought conditions but most project multi-year droughts reaching up to ... eight years of mean annual rainfall missing [over a 15-year period] ... by the end of the century.
“Despite the fact that the two models projecting the most severe future drought conditions overestimated historical drought, extreme future droughts were also projected by models that simulated historical droughts with similar conditions to the observations.”
10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change
Show all 10
10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change
1/10
A group of emperor penguins face a crack in the sea ice, near McMurdo Station, Antarctica
Kira Morris
2/10
Amid a flood in Islampur, Jamalpur, Bangladesh, a woman on a raft searches for somewhere dry to take shelter. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable places in the world to sea level rise, which is expected to make tens of millions of people homeless by 2050.
Probal Rashid
3/10
Hanna Petursdottir examines a cave inside the Svinafellsjokull glacier in Iceland, which she said had been growing rapidly. Since 2000, the size of glaciers on Iceland has reduced by 12 per cent.
Tom Schifanella
4/10
Floods destroyed eight bridges and ruined crops such as wheat, maize and peas in the Karimabad valley in northern Pakistan, a mountainous region with many glaciers. In many parts of the world, glaciers have been in retreat, creating dangerously large lakes that can cause devastating flooding when the banks break. Climate change can also increase rainfall in some areas, while bringing drought to others.
Hira Ali
5/10
Smoke – filled with the carbon that is driving climate change – drifts across a field in Colombia.
Sandra Rondon
6/10
A river once flowed along the depression in the dry earth of this part of Bangladesh, but it has disappeared amid rising temperatures.
Abrar Hossain
7/10
Sindh province in Pakistan has experienced a grim mix of two consequences of climate change.
“Because of climate change either we have floods or not enough water to irrigate our crop and feed our animals,” says the photographer. “Picture clearly indicates that the extreme drought makes wide cracks in clay. Crops are very difficult to grow.”
Rizwan Dharejo
8/10
A shepherd moves his herd as he looks for green pasture near the village of Sirohi in Rajasthan, northern India.
The region has been badly affected by heatwaves and drought, making local people nervous about further predicted increases in temperature.
Riddhima Singh Bhati
9/10
A factory in China is shrouded by a haze of air pollution. The World Health Organisation has warned such pollution, much of which is from the fossil fuels that cause climate change, is a “public health emergency”.
Leung Ka Wa
10/10
Water levels in reservoirs, like this one in Gers, France, have been getting perilously low in areas across the world affected by drought, forcing authorities to introduce water restrictions.
Mahtuf Ikhsan
1/10
A group of emperor penguins face a crack in the sea ice, near McMurdo Station, Antarctica
Kira Morris
2/10
Amid a flood in Islampur, Jamalpur, Bangladesh, a woman on a raft searches for somewhere dry to take shelter. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable places in the world to sea level rise, which is expected to make tens of millions of people homeless by 2050.
Probal Rashid
3/10
Hanna Petursdottir examines a cave inside the Svinafellsjokull glacier in Iceland, which she said had been growing rapidly. Since 2000, the size of glaciers on Iceland has reduced by 12 per cent.
Tom Schifanella
4/10
Floods destroyed eight bridges and ruined crops such as wheat, maize and peas in the Karimabad valley in northern Pakistan, a mountainous region with many glaciers. In many parts of the world, glaciers have been in retreat, creating dangerously large lakes that can cause devastating flooding when the banks break. Climate change can also increase rainfall in some areas, while bringing drought to others.
Hira Ali
5/10
Smoke – filled with the carbon that is driving climate change – drifts across a field in Colombia.
Sandra Rondon
6/10
A river once flowed along the depression in the dry earth of this part of Bangladesh, but it has disappeared amid rising temperatures.
Abrar Hossain
7/10
Sindh province in Pakistan has experienced a grim mix of two consequences of climate change.
“Because of climate change either we have floods or not enough water to irrigate our crop and feed our animals,” says the photographer. “Picture clearly indicates that the extreme drought makes wide cracks in clay. Crops are very difficult to grow.”
Rizwan Dharejo
8/10
A shepherd moves his herd as he looks for green pasture near the village of Sirohi in Rajasthan, northern India.
The region has been badly affected by heatwaves and drought, making local people nervous about further predicted increases in temperature.
Riddhima Singh Bhati
9/10
A factory in China is shrouded by a haze of air pollution. The World Health Organisation has warned such pollution, much of which is from the fossil fuels that cause climate change, is a “public health emergency”.
Leung Ka Wa
10/10
Water levels in reservoirs, like this one in Gers, France, have been getting perilously low in areas across the world affected by drought, forcing authorities to introduce water restrictions.
In October last year, scientists reported that temperatures in southern Europe had risen by about 1.3C since the 19th century, compared to the global average of 0.85C.
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