Why the Covid inquiry is unlikely to do much damage to Boris Johnson

The inquiry is unlikely to add to the prime minister’s reputation for attention to detail, but given that it could take years before the report is published, it is unlikely to do him much harm, writes Sean O’Grady

It would suit the government if the inquiry published its conclusions well after the next election (AFP/Getty)

On the face of it, the prime minister’s pledge to put the actions of his government, and the devolved administrations, “under the microscope” over its response to Covid is a bold one. Boris Johnson solemnly informed the Commons that there will indeed be “an independent public inquiry on a statutory basis, with full powers under the Inquiries Act of 2005, including the ability to compel the production of all relevant materials, and take oral evidence in public, under oath”.

However encouraging as this sounds, there is plenty of scope for bureaucratic obfuscation and political manoeuvrings before the inquiry begins, let alone concludes. The suspicion must be that, as with many such exercises in the past, it will be a classic establishment job, or, colloquially put, a whitewash.

First, there is the crucial matter of timing. Such inquiries naturally take time, and with such a major job as this it would take two to three years to complete. It would suit the government if it published its conclusions well after the next election. Hence the starting date of “spring” 2022, with some preparations before then (in answer to a query from an alert Keir Starmer). Thus, the report wouldn’t see the light of day before, say, the spring or summer of 2024 or 2025, long after an election now assumed to be held in the summer of 2023 (after the abolition of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act). The public hearings may no doubt be embarrassing, and ministers and advisers such as Dominic Cummings will have to undergo cross-examination by barristers, but they will not be the final “verdict”.