What is happening in the opinion polls?

Labour overtook the Conservatives in one poll 10 days ago, but seems to have slipped back. John Rentoul reports

Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak on 7 September, announcing the tax rise for the NHS and social care (PA)

It looked as if the opinion polls might have reached the crossover point 10 days ago when Labour took a two-point lead over the Conservatives in a YouGov poll carried out immediately after the announcement of the tax rise to pay for the NHS backlog and Boris Johnson’s social care plan.

It was the first Labour lead for eight months, since January, when the country was in its third lockdown and when Johnson was thought to have handled coronavirus badly. Then came the vaccines, which lifted Tory support.

Now the vaccine effect is wearing off, and that YouGov poll seemed to be the first indication that Keir Starmer was gaining the upper hand. It was followed by an Opinium poll putting Labour and the Tories neck and neck on 38 per cent.