Pound news - LIVE: Sterling set to hit new 10-year low within weeks, says major forecaster ING

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The pound is set to hit its lowest level since the height of the financial crisis in January 2009 within weeks, bank analysts have forecast.

Dutch bank ING predicts sterling could go to 95p per euro from its current level of 93p and said there was now a one-in-four chance of a no-deal Brexit.

The pound went as low as 98p against the euro in December 2008 in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the £45bn bailout of RBS.

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Key Points

• Sterling set to fall to new 10-year low, says ING
• Six out of 10 investors are now actively seeking to move assets out of Britain
• More than 50 major UK retailers have demanded action from the Government to fix the “broken” business rates system

[13 August 2019 10:28 · ben.chapman]

Some news from overnight: KPMG has ousted the head of its financial services consulting division Tim Howarth after an investigation into alleged misconduct.

"We hold all of our people to a very high standard and take swift and appropriate action against any individual whose behaviour contravenes the firm's values," it said.

KPMG has been wracked by a series of audit failures including prior to the collapse of Carillion. 

[13 August 2019 10:31 · ben.chapman]

The jobs figures out today show that the percentage of women aged between 16 and 64 in work rose to 72.1 per cent, the highest rate on record.

[13 August 2019 10:32 · ben.chapman]

Matt Hughes, deputy head of labour market statistics for the ONS, said: "Employment continues to increase, with three-quarters of this year's growth being due to more women working.

"However, the number of vacancies has been falling for six months, with fewer now than there were this time last year.

"Excluding bonuses, real wages are growing at their fastest in nearly four years, but pay levels still have not returned to their pre-downturn peak."

[13 August 2019 10:35 · ben.chapman]

Drivers could be banned from using mobile phones while at the wheel - even in hands-free mode - under proposals put forward by MPs.

The Transport Select Committee says current rules banning drivers from using their mobile while holding it in their hand give the "misleading impression" that hands-free use is safe.

Labour MP Lilian Greenwood, who chairs the committee, says:

"Despite the real risk of catastrophic consequences for themselves, their passengers and other road users, far too many drivers continue to break the law by using hand-held mobile phones.

"If mobile phone use while driving is to become as socially unacceptable as drink-driving, much more effort needs to go into educating drivers about the risks and consequences of using a phone behind the wheel.

"Offenders also need to know there is a credible risk of being caught, and that there are serious consequences for being caught."

[13 August 2019 10:39 · ben.chapman]

High-profile Brexit supporter and Next chief executive Lord Wolfson claims that leaving the EU without a deal will result in only "mild disruption".

He tells the BBC that he believes Boris Johnson's government is taking appropriate preparation measures for no deal.

Lord Wolfson adds: "I think if businesses and the Government prepare well for no-deal then I think the worst outcome will be mild disruption, but the best outcome is we will actually get a better deal - one that is acceptable to Parliament."

He said the UK has to be "prepared to walk away" to secure the best deal, noting: "The vast majority of deals I've done in my life, if the deadline has been midnight then the deal has been done at 11.55pm.

"The reality is very few deals get done long before the deadline and people will negotiate right up to the wire."

[13 August 2019 10:53 · ben.chapman]

The chancellor has, unsurprisingly, hailed today's jobs figures despite the sharpest rise in unemployment for two years. His words require a bit of context, which he's left out.

Sajid Javid, says:

"Every person deserves the chance to succeed and provide for their families through a steady income. I’m pleased to see 2.9 million more people are in work every day since 2010, wages are rising at their fastest in more than a decade, and people across the UK are taking home more of what they earn," he said.

He didn't mention: Real average pay - ie adjusted for inflation - is still £4 a week below where it was 12 years ago

[13 August 2019 10:58 · ben.chapman]

More from 'the Saj':

“Thanks to the hard work of the British people and the government, we can further invest in our public services."

That's one view. Another, based on Office for Budget Responsibility data, is that years of austerity have hampered the economy, reducing the tax take and the amount to be spent on hospitals, schools and roads:

More information from the New Economics Foundation here.

[13 August 2019 11:01 · ben.chapman]

Javid goes on:

"And today’s figures are another sign that despite the challenges across the global economy, the fundamentals of the British economy are strong as we prepare to leave the EU.”

Others disagree:

Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, says the labour market "may now be reaching its peak".

He suggests that some of the growth is linked to the current economic uncertainty.

“With investment in machinery and technology often deemed too risky right now, businesses have sought to bring on board more staff to help lift output."

While wages have grown the outlook is not good, says the Resolution Foundation:

[13 August 2019 11:07 · ben.chapman]

Howard Archer is more upbeat about today's jobs numbers.

The EY Item club's chief economist says wage growth gives a "highly welcome" boost to consumers.

However he pointed out that today's boost in the number of people in work comes partly because firms are willing to spend money on hiring rather than making much-needed longer-term investments such as in technology or equipment.

Employment is "relatively low cost and easier to reverse if business subsequently stalls" he says.

He adds:

“The pick-up in employment growth in June looks particularly resilient given recent soft UK economic activity (the economy contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter), extended Brexit uncertainties, an unsettled domestic political situation and a challenging global economic environment.

[13 August 2019 11:13 · ben.chapman]

One question the government and businesses might want to answer: Why have British workers not shared the billions of extra economic output that they have generated over the past decade?

GDP per worker is up around 5 per cent since 2007/8 according to NEF, but pay is still below where it was.